Search Results
Results 2,351–2,400
of 3,303 found.
Economicus Terra Incognita
by John Mauldin of Mauldin Economics,
Welcome to 2016. Tradition dictates that you spend the first few weeks or so reading forecasts for the coming year. I can say with certainty that most of them will be wrong. A smaller number may hit the target. Unfortunately, no one knows which forecasts will fall into which category.
On My Radar: China, Valuation Charts and Recession Watch Charts
China marked its currency lower once again yesterday. That makes eight days in a row they lowered the yuan. Last August, they devalued the yuan and that sent global equity markets into a dive. As Yogi Berra would say, “It’s déjà vu all over again.”
January 2016 Flash Update
Stock market performance during the first week of the year has historically been a good indicator of market direction for the year ahead. Strong starts have historically indicated a better than normal outcome. Conversely, weak beginnings are generally ominous (excluding years when the Fed cuts short term rates).
CIO Newsletter – Jan 2016
This newsletter has my views on the important developments in the investment world in 2015 and the outlook for 2016. Indeed we are in a very dynamic global environment and volatility is abound. One of the most important developments in 2015 was the depletion of global forex reserves held by central banks and asset sales by petro dollars funded sovereign wealth funds.
The Biggest Stories of 2016?
Which stories are most likely to clear the front pages of the financial newspapers in 2016? In this month's Absolute Return Letter we take a closer look at that and arrive at the conclusion that three favourites stand out. We discuss all three, and we look at the implications for financial markets, should any of them unfold. Enjoy the read and happy New Year.
On My Radar: 2016 Outlook
If you haven’t seen the movie The Big Short, go see it. Christian Bale plays Michael Burry in Adam McKay’s adaptation of Michael Lewis’s book about the 2008 financial crisis. Burry was one of the hedge fund managers me and my team knew well. He and others helped us to better understand the approaching sub-prime crisis. I wrote about the issue frequently back then.
Innovation in Emerging and Frontier Markets
While many investors consider innovation to be the province of Silicon Valley and other high-tech centers in developed markets around the world, the reality is very different. A look at where intellectual property is being created gives us some indication that we have to broaden our horizons as investors if we want to take full advantage of the potential opportunities.
International Retrospective and Outlook
The ratio of the MSCI Emerging Markets Index divided by the MSCI World Index (an index of developed markets) is at its lowest level in 10 years, and developed markets have dramatically outperformed since 2010. If we believe most trends eventually reverse course, we may be close to a period of outperformance for emerging markets.
Christmas Edition: 2015 in Review
Before we reach 2016, I want to reflect back on 2015. Everyone is talking about interest rates and monetary policy right now, but the role fiscal policy plays is just as important—if not more so. As I always say, government policy is a precursor to change, and very recently we saw this firsthand.
5 Investing Myths That Will Hurt You
In the summer of 1885 William R. Travers, prominent NYC businessman and builder of Saratoga Race Track, was vacationing in Newport, Rhode Island. He pointed out a long line of beautiful yachts tied up in the harbor. When he was informed that they all belonged to Wall Street brokers he simply asked, “Where are their clients’ yachts?”.
Can the Markets Be Timed?
by Kendall Anderson of Anderson Griggs,
In the past I regularly attended investment conferences, and at first they were informative. As time went by they were my way of rationalizing a vacation for myself and my family at some resort hotel. During the last decade or so, the few conferences I have attended were those in which I was invited to give a presentation to those attendees willing to listen to my thoughts on portfolio management and security selection.
The Average Stock is Just Shy of Being in a Bear Market
by Bryce Coward of GaveKal Capital,
As of today’s closing the S&P 500 index is quite literally in spitting distance of its all-time high as the markets cheered the first rate hike in a decade. Yet, as we noted here and here, most stocks are not quite acting as ebullient as one might expect given former. Here is more evidence of just that.
On My Radar: Henry Hazlitt and Inflation
There is a battle going on between deflation and inflation. Right now, deflation is winning. It is winning globally. In the extreme, neither is desired, yet perhaps the worst of the two is deflation as it leads to depression. The global central banks are fighting to create inflation and it is fight that I think they will ultimately win (though it may take years).
The Seven Fat Years of ZIRP
by John Mauldin of Mauldin Economics,
In today’s letter we are going to examine the problematic credit markets, and I want to focus on something that is happening off the radar screen: the continuing rise of credit in private lending. I predicted the rise of private credit back in 2007 and said that it would become a major force in the world, but I got strange looks from audiences when I talked about the arcane subject of private credit. Today the shadow banking system is taking significant market share from traditional banking.
Rising Interest Rates, Part 3: What About Investments?
As this is the final post in my series on interest rates, it’s time to talk about what everyone is probably thinking: What happens to investments when interest rates rise? This question is especially pertinent given yesterday’s decision by the Federal Reserve on a rate hike.
High Yield: A Challenge and an Opportunity
Liquidity in the high-yield market has been a challenge over the past several quarters, as several structural factors have adversely affected traditional sources of liquidity. Historically, counterparties like banks and brokers served as market-makers, allocating capital to provide down bids in periods of market distress, as they did in 2002 and 2008/09.
Did a Frozen Fund Lead Last Week's Outflows in High Yield?
The circumstances of two large leveraged debt funds do not mean that investors with exposure to traditional high-yield funds are subject to the same outcomes.
While we believe risk premiums should be higher for illiquidity and other risks, any technically-driven sell-off due to large redemptions could present a buying opportunity.
Last week’s events are further evidence that disciplined credit selection based on strong fundamental analysis will be a key driver of manager performance over the coming year.
Weighing the Week Ahead: Is It Finally Time for the Santa Claus Rally?
Last week’s stock results were poor for nearly all funds and sectors. Will this continue? Until Wednesday, we can expect a continuing focus on the Fed. After that announcement we may see a change in tone: Pundits will be asking:
Is it finally time for the Santa Claus Rally?
Why Dividend-Paying Stocks are Riskier than You Think
by Larry Swedroe,
As advisors shift allocations from bonds to high-dividend stocks, they are exposing their clients to equity market risk. But they are also increasing interest-rate risk. Investors in two of the biggest dividend ETFs – SDY and VIG – are among the most exposed to the surging demand for dividend-paying stocks.
Dear Ms. Yellen, I Don’t Care What You Do
by Andy Martin,
Rising interest rates are nothing to fear. Total returns will be positive, not negative, if we have a similar rate trajectory that we had in the last bear market in bonds. Bonds should continue to be a staple in investors’ portfolios – and in greater, not lesser percentages as our population ages and interest rates increase.
The Risk and Opportunity in Peer-to-Peer Investing
by Michael Kitces,
In today’s low-interest-rate environment, advisors must add value to fixed-income allocations. Unfortunately, some of the higher yielding segments of the fixed-income markets – such as peer-to-peer (P2P) investing – don’t fit into the typical financial advisor investment platforms. But that will soon change.
The Slippery Welcome Mat for Rising Rates,
The commencement of a policy-rate-hike cycle by the US Federal Reserve has both symbolic and material significance for the US economy and financial system. Gradually unwinding unconventional, ultra-accommodative monetary policies sets in motion the repricing of assets and other long-delayed adjustments in economic, financial and currency markets. Comparing economic and financial outcomes with prior rate-hike cycles provides clues as to the possible outcomes this time around, but they have little predictive power.
On My Radar: El-Erian’s 2016 Outlook & The T Junction
I spent a few days earlier in the week in Scottsdale, Arizona. I was invited to present on portfolio positioning and best execution at the 20th annual IMN Global Indexing and ETF Conference. One of the big highlights for me was El-Erian’s keynote presentation.
Today, I share with you my notes from El-Erian’s speech. He is humble, balanced and brilliant. I have listened to my recording of his presentation several times. Stop-start-rewind-replay-rinse-repeat. Fun for me and well worth the effort.
In short, he puts the odds for a good outcome at 50/50 saying he, “hates to say that."
Sweden Declares War on Cash, Punishes Savers with Negative Interest Ratesy Market Summary
Among the endangered species in Sweden are the gray wolf, European otter—and cash. Back in June, I shared with you the story of how, in 1661, the Scandinavian monarchy became the first country in the world to issue paper money. (It was an unmitigated disaster, by the way.) Now it might be the first to ban it altogether.
Getting Smart About Beta
Due to its simplicity, market-cap weighting has long been a popular means of calculating the value of market indexes. But as an investment strategy, market-cap weighting has limitations – frequently resulting in outsized proportions of overvalued stocks, and less-than-optimal exposure to undervalued stocks. Smart beta solutions seek to expand investors’ options by providing exposure to objective, rules-based methodologies that harvest returns from specific investment factors or deliver broad market exposure through alternative weighting strategies.
Trade Signals: Rich Man, Poor Man
Overall, from a trading perspective, I am now with a neutral view on equities. Our CMG NDR Momentum Index (my favorite measure) which looks at momentum and market breadth remains in a sell signal. However, the weekly 13-week vs. 34-week moving average has just turned bullish on the market. The markets are generally stronger November through April. There is a strong seasonal tailwind.
How Should an Asset Allocator Think About The Royce Funds Today?
by The Royce Funds,
Portfolio Manager Steve Lipper talks with Co-CIO Francis Gannon about why an important ingredient in any recipe for asset allocation is measured by one’s view of the economy. This is why in The Royce Funds, we not only emphasize consistency, discipline, and risk awareness in how we operate, but also offer distinctive strategies designed to perform differently in different market environments.
On My Radar: Global Recession a High Probability
“I have long made the claim that the transnational nature of Europe cannot be sustained. The divergent economic interests of EU countries, some with unemployment over 20 percent, some with it under 5 percent, meant that it was impossible for all of them to live not only under the same monetary regime, but under the same trade regime, which we cannot call free trade with agriculture, among other things, being protected. This would lead to a focus on national interest and on a resurrected nation-state.”
-George Friedman
What We’re Paying Attention to Following the Paris Attacks
A week ago today, 129 lives were brutally cut short when assailants affiliated with the terrorist group ISIS, also known as the Islamic State, stormed Paris in a series of coordinated attacks. Along with the rest of the world, we were shocked and saddened as the tragic news unfolded, worsening as the night progressed. Our thoughts are with the victims’ families and friends.
The Case for Active Equity Management
The growth of passively managed funds adds to market inefficiency by increasing the prevalence of price indiscriminate buyers and sellers. This can create inefficiencies that active managers can exploit. Weakening global liquidity means that there will no longer be a rising tide of liquidity that lifts all boats, and dispersions in the returns offered by individual stocks are likely to increase.
The Truths And Myths of Buybacks
by Urban Carmel of The Fat Pitch,
It's true that corporations buying their own shares (buybacks) have helped push asset prices higher. But much of what is believed about buybacks is a myth. There is much more to share appreciation than buybacks. EPS growth is overwhelmingly driven by higher profits, not share reduction. Buybacks are not a result of ZIRP or QE. Companies are not, as a whole, under investing in manufacturing or R&D or other sources of future growth because of buybacks.
If Factor Returns Are Predictable, Why Is There an Investor Return Gap?
by Jason Hsu of Research Affiliates,
In the latest piece from Research Affiliates, vice-chairman and co-founder Jason Hsu looks at how substantial evidence supports cyclicality in factor returns, making them predictable. Evidence also exists that indicates investors aren't fully benefiting from this insight due to behavioral biases. But contrarian investors practicing countercyclical timing can benefit.
Friends
by Jeffrey Saut of Raymond James,
“Friends” . . . except in this case I am not referring to the 1994 TV sitcom, but the true friends I have met over the past 45 years in this business. I thought about this theme two weeks ago as I was sitting in Bobby Van’s, across from the NYSE, listening to great stories from my friend Art Cashin and Eric Kaufman (captain of the sagacious VE Capital), and other members of Friends of Fermentation (FOF). As I listened to Arthur, I could not shake the feeling that these classic Wall Street stories need to be scribed lest they be lost forever.
Gundlach – The Scariest Indicator in the World
by Robert Huebscher,
Those Federal Reserve governors who intend to vote for an increase in rates at their December meeting need to take a close look at some of the charts Jeffrey Gundlach presented on Tuesday. One chart – which Gundlach called his “scariest” – carried a particularly ominous signal for the global economy.
No content
The previous installment in my series evaluating the performance of the market’s most prominent actively managed mutual fund families focused on Russell, one of the largest players in the world of investment consulting (where firms provide guidance to pension plans and other institutional investors, as well as to investment advisors, on picking the best active managers). Today, we’ll turn our attention to Russell’s largest competitor in the consulting field, SEI.
Weekly Market Summary
by Urban Carmel of The Fat Pitch,
After rising 6 weeks in a row, equities fell hard this week. SPY has returned to the bottom of its former trading range. NDX, which is leading, closed an important open gap that should now provide initial support. So far, no foul for either. A number of studies suggest an upside edge in the short term. Overall, however, risk is rising, as the market now has a potentially bearish technical pattern that it didn't have in August.
Results 2,351–2,400
of 3,303 found.
