Markets now see more than an 80% chance of a rate cut from the Fed this month, and it may be a good time to reallocate short-term cash positions to medium-term fixed income positions with maturities between 5 and 10 years.
One of the standout developments in financial markets in August 2025 was the unprecedented surge in ETF inflows.
Emerging markets are becoming more attractive as the prospect of an upcoming US rate cut — combined with softer local inflation and relatively low public debt — strengthens the investment case, according to Navin Hingorani, Singapore-based portfolio manager at Eastspring Investments.
Underlying US inflation rose as expected in August, keeping the Federal Reserve on track to cut interest rates next week.
Technology stocks are rising so far, so fast that some investors are starting to position for the move to lose momentum.
Global macro conditions remain constructive for risk assets, according to Franklin Templeton Investment Solutions. Get the team’s views across global assets in the latest “Allocation Views.”
Markets cheered an imminent Fed rate cut, with small caps outpacing the S&P 500, but rising unemployment, sticky inflation, and slowing job growth point to stagflation risks. Advisors face a market both buoyed by near-term catalysts and shadowed by longer-term vulnerabilities.
Making the case for potential rate cuts in his recent speech at Jackson Hole, Fed Chair Powell noted that policy is presently in restrictive territory.
Although the relationship between fundamental returns and total returns after a decade is solid, valuations do matter – their impact is evident in the vertical distance between each stock observation and the diagonal line on the chart.
Markets are hoping for a “Goldilocks” outcome: tariffs that don’t hurt margins, inflation under control, and just enough labor softness to justify rate cuts. It’s an appealing story, but history suggests this mix is rare, and chasing it could set investors up for disappointment.
DoubleLine CEO/CIO Jeffrey Gundlach, widely known in the capital markets as the "Bond King," spoke at a Total Return Webcast.
The U.S. labor market continued to show signs of cooling, with all major labor indicators pointing to a softening trend and a weak hiring environment. Read through the major economic news from the week of September 2nd - 5th.
Investors are leaning into bullish bets on US Treasuries ahead of this week’s inflation report, as a recent run of softer-than-expected data opens the door for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates in September and further ease monetary policy in the months ahead.
Progress on reducing fiscal deficits has stalled in some large economies around the world. Should investors be worried?
LPL Research sees bull market strength as stocks follow recovery trends, with AI growth, Fed cuts, and economic resilience driving upside.
Gold, digital gold (blockchain-backed gold), and critical minerals are drawing interest as money supply grows and certain resources become scarcer.
The rise of private markets has brought new attention to private investment grade (IG) credit, which can offer investors a premium over public IG for giving borrowers customized terms – though that premium comes with certain risks.
The U.S. dollar is experiencing a rare volatility squeeze, indicating that a major move is near. While the most likely direction is downward, any move will have a big impact on precious metals.
Healthcare has been the worst-performing sector in the S&P 500 so far this year.
Over the past several years we’ve watched the S&P 500’s performance become increasingly tethered to a handful of Mega-cap technology companies.
Given the economic uncertainties around trade policies and their impact on the markets, might this be a good time to add more real estate to your investment portfolio?
The U.S. economy has thus far avoided recession, yet growth has decelerated and economic risks persist.
Our biggest concern today is that if the labor market is as weak today as the numbers are showing, what will happen when all the federal government workers start dropping out of the employment numbers at the end of the fiscal year and during the next several quarters.
The U.S. market has outperformed the rest of the world over the past decade but may fade, making international equities—a timely and overlooked opportunity.
The market got exactly what it needed last week: confirmation that the economy is slowing—not collapsing—and that the Federal Reserve has the green light to start cutting rates. Payroll gains softened, manufacturing remains weak, and broader job slack is showing up with U-6 underemployment rising to 8.1%.
Buy-now-pay-later firm Klarna Group Plc is among a string of companies bringing US public stock offerings in what looks like an extremely busy September for investment bankers.
Looking back over the past 20 years, airline equities have tended to outperform in the final three months of the year, with the NYSE Arca Global Airlines Index gaining over 3% on average in October; this is followed by an even stronger showing in November and a 3% increase in December on average.
Emerging-market currencies and stocks rose as expectations of an imminent US monetary policy easing pushed the dollar lower and strengthened investor appetite for riskier assets.
Bond investors may need to look elsewhere to supplant income lost from falling yields — they may want to try heading overseas. It's not just a weaker dollar that's been diverting attention to international bonds, but U.S. debt itself.
The Federal Reserve may cut rates a couple of times by year-end, but the pace and magnitude of easing in 2026 is unclear. There are still some roadblocks to lower bond yields.
The failures aren’t isolated miscalculations but the predictable result of a flawed framework that policymakers have clung to for decades. Keynesian economics didn’t just “get it wrong” in 2025, but has repeatedly failed to deliver on its promises for over forty years. And the consequences are becoming impossible to ignore.
The U.S. labor market continued to show signs of cooling, with all major labor indicators pointing to a softening trend and a weak hiring environment.
Is President Trump correct in his assertion that interest rates need to come down? Let’s look at the 99-year history of capital market returns spanning 1926–2024 as our
Treasuries edged higher, extending Friday’s gains, as investors shifted their focus to key readings on inflation due later this week.
The average household feels inflation as rising living costs, of which shelter is usually the largest. This will be today’s primary topic. What is going on with housing costs, and is there any hope for relief?
Franklin Templeton Emerging Markets Equity discusses recent developments in emerging markets, specifically examining the impact of tariffs on Indian exports, the resurgence of Chinese equities and potential US Federal Reserve interest-rate cuts that could benefit emerging markets.
August brought with it a slowing in ETF launches from the summer spree, while inflows continued as investors increasingly bought into bonds.
With an interest rate cut looming this month, investors may be looking at their available options. For many, their passive bond funds have done well, but may not be well-positioned for one or potentially multiple cuts.
Investors betting that a torrid rally in gold miners has room to run face a test of their conviction as the US government gets set to deliver jobs data from August.
Independent central banks are a relatively recent concept.
Much of the data we see today indicates the economy is fine. Stocks continue making new highs. Consumer spending is shattering records. Unemployment rates remain low. Yet a single anecdote can dispel the illusion that everything is truly fine for the average American.
Advisors have looked to international markets for much of this year for a crucial source of diversification amid U.S. uncertainty.
From a revenue perspective, we were also encouraged by sales coming in +2.1% higher than analysts expected, with all 11 sectors showing positive revenue surprises. This also allays our fears that tariff impact might be worse than the analyst community feared.
Late last Friday, the Court of Appeals for the Federal Circuit (CAFC) largely affirmed the Court of International Trade’s (CIT) May ruling blocking President Trump’s tariffs imposed under the International Economic Emergency Powers Act (IEEPA).
This past week, we saw a sweeping change in U.S. trade policy come into effect with the termination of the long-standing “de minimis” exemption on small, imported parcels.
For decades, betting that long-term bond rates would rise was known as the widow-maker trade: It was simultaneously the most sensible and the most consistently money-losing wager an investor could make.
After a volatile first four months of 2025, it was a good summer for investors to go on vacation, as markets, for the most part, went up weekly.
Markets rallied in August as hopes for a September Fed rate cut boosted equities, small caps, and income-oriented fixed income sectors, though risks of inflation and valuation excess remain.
Nvidia made a splash last week, or maybe an anti-splash, when it reported earnings and stated an intention to buy back $60 billion in stock.
With an eye on mitigating rate risk, short-term bond funds have been the apple of fixed income investors’ eyes the past few years.