While we are constructive on the prospects for emerging markets in the year ahead, we think the real potential lies in individual country and thematic opportunities.

A shift in monetary policy among central banks has boosted markets since the start of the year. How much longer could the window of opportunity last before recession risks set in?

Sound investing requires linking the myriad mega-trends and world events we’re experience into a tapestry of potential outcomes. Key trends today include the growth of globalization, aging demographics, the acceleration and adoption of technological change, and the effect of these factors on the world populace.Exploring possible outcomes can serve as a directional checklist as the future unfolds.

In Part I of this four-part series, we introduced this report and discussed the origin narratives of Modern Monetary Theory (MMT). This week, we will examine the principles and consequences of the theory. MMT begins its analysis with a focus on macroeconomic identities and flows. Assuming MMT does hold, what does it mean for policy and the economy?

Although many Health Technology Sector companies have significantly outperformed the market on a long-term basis, they have significantly underperformed the market since the beginning of 2015.

We believe short-term interest rates in the U.S. are now anchored in The New Neutral, as global growth keeps synching lower.

Sinology explains that the key to understanding China’s debt problem is that it is the result of state banks lending to state firms at the direction of the state, so there is no mark-to-market pressure.

Ten years have passed since the financial crisis and many pundits are using this arbitrary anniversary to prognosticate the next great financial calamity. This week, CLOs take their turn in the spotlight.

With a patchwork of lenders now willing to provide financing on noncommercial terms to countries in distress, “moral hazard plays” have proliferated in emerging markets.

When will prices in China and Japan become attractive?

The value of negative-yielding bonds around the world has ticked up to more than $9.32 trillion. Although still below the 2016 high, this indicates that investors fear global economic growth is slowing. Is this gold’s time to shine?

Emerging market equities saw mixed performances in February, with stocks in Asia faring better than stocks in Latin America and emerging Europe, which underperformed.

How much of your portfolio is allocated to private markets? How big is the total opportunity set?

We update a spending-power indicator that has an excellent track record predicting the economy.

We favor Asian high yield over investment grade credits in spite of historical higher volatility since we view valuations as more attractive, particularly compared with U.S. high yield and emerging market peers.

I found more value in the Finance Sector than I did in any other sector that I screened. All in all, I identified 131 attractively valued companies out of the 1,888 companies in the Finance Sector.

In recognition of International Women’s Day on 8 March, PIMCO leaders in three regions discuss their career experiences and the progress they see for women in finance and their own career experiences.

After MSCI decided today to boost the allocation to Chinese onshore stocks in its emerging-market indices, global investors are likely to pump more money into the market. But watch out for crowds. Flows into China are concentrated in a small group of large-cap stocks.

What investors should expect from upcoming elections in Thailand, Indonesia, India and the Philippines.

I was traveling last week seeing portfolio managers and doing gigs for our financial advisors and their clients. I have been doing such events for much of the past six months. The recurring question from clients is, “What about the national debt?”

As MSCI considers boosting the allocation to Chinese onshore stocks in its emerging-market indices, global investors are pumping money into the market. But watch out for crowds. Flows into China are concentrated in a small group of large-cap stocks.

My primary objective is to illustrate how different individual companies are from each other, and even how different companies operating in the same sector can be. It is a market of stocks not a stock market.

A couple of weeks ago, I introduced you to an exciting new company called GoldSpot Discoveries,conceived and headed by mining visionary Denis Laviolette. GoldSpot is the world’s first exploration company to use artificial intelligence (AI) and machine learning in the discovery process for precious metals and other natural resources.

An old joke says economists predicted 15 of the last 10 recessions. In other words, they’re frequently wrong and often too pessimistic. I think it’s not so simple.

Focusing on the long term and on better-managed companies has been a tailwind for returns in Asia.

As I stated in previous articles in this series, my primary objective is to provide the reader with a clear perspective of just how different individual stocks are and how different companies operating in different sectors are.

As I stated in the introduction in Part 4 of this series, my primary objective is to provide the reader with a clear perspective of just how different individual stocks are and how different companies operating in different sectors are.

This week Morgan Stanley projected a 14 percent upside for copper in 2019, based on a widening supply deficit and the surge in global demand for renewable energy and electric vehicles, both of which require tons of the red metal.

When considering the prospects for India's stock market, key factors of performance are the growth outlook and underlying valuations.

My primary objective with this series of articles (identifying attractively valued stocks in different sectors) is to provide the reader with a clear perspective of just how different individual stocks are and how different companies operating in different sectors are.

While some observers might worry that the current global economic cycle is ending, Templeton Global Macro CIO Michael Hasenstab characterizes the slowing growth we are experiencing as a cyclical slowdown, not the end of the cycle. He is more concerned with the political vulnerabilities he's seeing in the global economy today, and says the world's increasing fragmentation due to populist policies is a major concern.

“Some people call it ‘peak gold,’ but I tend to think of it more as ‘peak discovery.’” Meet the brains behind Goldspot Discoveries, a first-of-its-kind quant shop that aims to use AI to revolutionize the mineral exploration business.

Knightian uncertainty is named after University of Chicago economist Frank Knight (1885–1972), who distinguished risk and uncertainty in his work Risk, Uncertainty, and Profit. The concept of a separation between risk and uncertainty is an important one right now given how severely politics are driving markets.

In Part I of this report, we laid out the two narratives that the U.S. and China are using to frame relations between the two countries. This week, we will summarize the two positions and examine the potential for war using the historical examples of British policy toward the U.S. and Germany...

Following a painful and broad fourth quarter selloff, risk assets rebounded in the first weeks of 2019 as optimism has grown about Fed accommodation, earnings, China stimulus and an eventual trade dispute resolution. However, investors should be prepared for choppy markets, especially through the first half of the year.

Last year was admittedly a tough one for emerging markets. A number of currencies were under considerable pressure, with some of them falling to record or near-record lows against the strong U.S. dollar.

Last year was a watershed in the size of official gold purchases, as central banks added 651.5 tonnes to their holdings. Not only is this a remarkable 74 percent change from 2017, but it’s also the most on record going back to 1971.

Matthews Asia Portfolio Strategist David Dali discusses the new drivers of growth in emerging markets.

In recent months China has rolled out tax cuts and incentives to boost consumption over investment while taking steps to further open its capital markets – a shift in approach that seems to accept a natural slowing in growth over time and to acknowledge the costs of an overreliance on credit growth.

A 1997 dark comedy starring Dustin Hoffman and Robert DeNiro, “Wag the Dog” was a film in which a Hollywood director and a spin-doctor collude to fabricate a war in order to distract voters from a presidential sex-scandal. Hilarity ensues. Of course, the irony was that the movie was released just two months before an actual sex-scandal erupted.

To make a quantitative and systematic assessment of how different sectors performed through various business cycles, we used the Conference Board Leading Economic Indicator Index (LEI) to segregate business cycles and evaluated sector performance over multiple business cycles between 1960 and 2018. This provided a good sample size to evaluate sector performance persistency for different cycles.

Domestic airlines weren’t exempt from the rout that hit stocks in December, the market’s worst month since the Great Recession. Shares of all four major U.S. carriers—American, Delta, United Continental and Southwest—saw double-digit losses. Delta ended December down 17.8 percent, its worst month since October 2009, when it gave back 20.3 percent.

Although most investors hate bearish stock market activity, value investors – like yours truly -relish them. Moreover, bearish market activity becomes especially welcome after extended periods of high valuation like we have been experiencing since calendar year 2014. High valuations make it very difficult for value investors to find attractive common stock investments.

Global airlines are expected to log their 10th straight year of profitability—an industry first. And with incomes expanding worldwide, air travel demand is projected to outpace economic growth for the next couple of decades.

Will emerging markets stocks rebound in 2019? Attractive valuations, strong forecast earnings growth, structural reforms, and an abating dollar headwind suggest they will.

The process of creating The Ten Surprises begins in the summer when I organize four lunches in the Hamptons for serious investors. About 100 people attend including hedge fund managers, private equity titans and even some academics. One of the benefits of this is that it gives me some clarity on where the consensus is, and that is essential before the Surprises can be determined.

Our January Sinology explains that China’s economy did not slow sharply in 4Q18. Growth rates of household consumption and private investment actually accelerated.

In recent days, we’ve heard a number of analysts gushing that the S&P 500 is vastly cheaper than it was only a few months ago. It’s worth noting that they’re actually referring to an index that is now less than 10% below the steepest speculative extreme in history.

Diesel engines have found themselves in the crosshairs lately, with a number of European cities banning them outright. One of the beneficiaries of this policy has been palladium, used mostly in the production of pollution-scrubbing catalytic converters.

We are focused on identifying country-specific opportunities and carefully selecting credit positions where we see value and very low default risk.