In Southeast Asia, a collective market of over 650 million urbanizing and upwardly mobile people have seen many companies poised to prosper in the burgeoning e-commerce sector and many have set their sights to scale in Indonesia.
As China embarks on a transition to a more consumption-based economy, its health is likely to have an increasing impact on the well-being of the global economy.
The Financial Crisis consumed what was in many ways an overgrown and brittle economic system within the world’s developed countries. The conflagration destroyed many traditional politicians identified with the highly globalized economy and encouraged disruptive, populist leaders to begin reaching for their place in the sun.
Protests in Hong Kong create a political balancing act for China. With the world watching, a patient approach may be in China's best interest.
We believe China is managing, not manipulating, its currency. The country's central bank aims to maintain a stable exchange rate amid trade-related volatility.
Gold headed for its best week in nearly two months as the value of negative-yielding debt touched a new record of $15 trillion. The 10-year Treasury yield fell below 2 percent, pushing gold above $1,500 an ounce for the first time since September 2013.
What shifts from tariffs to currency mean in the US-China trade war.
Factors other than U.S.-China friction drive the region's progress.
The establishment of local bond markets has been the single most important structural change in Emerging Markets (EM) in the past quarter of a century. Many investors still fear local markets due to FX volatility, but EM local bonds have performed better overall than US Treasuries and US stocks.
Why we think Asia high yield credit can offer a distinctive opportunity.
Over the past several months, there has been hype about the prospect of the Chinese renminbi (RMB) weakening past 7 per U.S. dollar, despite no evidence that 7 is a magical number. China's central bank, People's Bank of China (PBOC), had denied that it was focused on defending 7, and the IMF said it wasn't significant.
The monthly factor report details those factors that influenced regional and global equity performance in July as well as over extended time periods.
Change can threaten, but it can create opportunity if we adapt.
I’m a firm believer that your thoughts manifest your future. It’s very hard to make money and be successful when you’re always expecting the worst to happen.
This week the economics team discusses: Surveying fiscal conditions as the FOMC prepares to meet; Japan gets aggressive in trade with South Korea; and One less fiscal worry for the U.S.
Now that gold has broken through the $1,450 an ounce level, a six-high year high, the next big test is $1,500. And as I’ve said before, it can do this in the blink of an eye under the right conditions.
Demand for cars is both slowing and shifting. How will automakers adapt?
On the positive side, we see room for more policy action from EM central banks.
Game theory is a useful framework for modeling aspects of sovereign debt recoveries, given that it models the interactions among debtors and creditors in the lending/borrowing "game." While there is a long-established set of precedents for Paris Club (U.S. & European) and multilateral (IMF, etc) creditors’ actions, we still have little available information about how China will act in debt negotiations.
Many observe the impacts of e-commerce growth as decimating commercial retail properties, leaving empty big-box warehouses and strip malls in its wake. While this may be true to a certain extent, it ignores the potential opportunity this new trend is creating in the industrial property sector.
Chinese government economists in Beijing have indicated that, while they are prepared to intervene with stimulus if current conditions deteriorate, investors should not anticipate material changes to monetary and fiscal policy. Sinology takes a look at the latest China economic data.
The stock market has a history of torturing highly-valued knowledge. About every seven years a consensus forms around the fastest growing sector of the stock market, or the fastest growing country, or the fastest growing industry.
When the Fed began a new easing cycle while the economy was expanding, stocks went up 3 months, 6 months, 9 months and 12 months later
Global equities advanced in the second quarter, but the path was rocky. Incoming earnings reports will provide important clues about how companies are coping with mounting challenges—from trade wars to global growth—and how investors should position.
The economic calendar is modest with a focus on monetary policy. Minutes from the last FOMC meeting, Congressional testimony by Fed Chair Powell, more inflation data, and continuing discussion of Friday’s employment report all put the Fed in focus.
The Northern Trust Economics team shares its outlook for U.S. economic growth, inflation, unemployment and interest rates.
We often get a sense of the relative uniformity in financial-market performance by looking at the indexes shown on Morningstar.com. Of the 145 stock, bond, target and commodity indexes, 131 were positive and 14 were negative for the second quarter of 2019.
To the dismay of many energy experts, the World Bank recently rather capriciously decided to stop funding virtually all new fossil-fuel plants. But phasing out readily available coal is a move that most major developing countries simply cannot afford without adequate incentives.
I’ve been getting lots of questions about the benefits of international diversification. The questions are variations of “Why do I want to own these poorly performing investments that also create currency risk?”
I’m very pleased to say that a satisfactory agreement was reached between HIVE and its strategic partner, Genesis Mining, so that the company can once again return to creating value for its shareholders.
Talks are back on, but success is far from assured.
Following U.S. President Donald Trump's recent Asia trip, Sinology explains why prospects seem brighter for an improved broader U.S.–China relationship.
Advocates of MMT insist that governments can and should print as much money as needed to fund massive public works, guarantee government jobs for the unemployed and much more. This is a recipe for runaway hyperinflation.
Major secular drivers could disrupt the global economy and financial markets over the next three to five years. We share our views on risks and opportunities ahead.
Its economic leadership creates a potential opportunity that cannot be ignored.
An escalation in trade-war tensions between China and the U.S. has sparked a slowdown in global growth and a yield-curve inversion. Could global central bank easing and China stimulus turn the tide?
The “rise of the middle class” has been a ubiquitous theme touted by emerging market (EM) investors for several years.
Over the last decade, strong growth in production has allowed the U.S. to become a net exporter of natural gas. Both pipeline exports to Mexico and liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports to the rest of the world, especially Asia, have been growing rapidly, and significant further growth is forecast.
Market updates from across the region.
Americans’ trust in institutions, from the federal government to the news media, has been deteriorating for decades. But I continue to have great faith in gold as a store of value during times of economic and geopolitical uncertainty.
China and Mexico thought they made progress toward U.S. trade deals. No longer.
U.S. - China trade concerns continue to weigh on global markets. Matthews Asia offers its perspective on how the dispute affects the long-term investment landscape.
Investors shouldn’t avoid risk: it’s how you generate return. One solution is to find good companies that have the right risks for the right reasons and for the right time horizon. With a concentrated portfolio, you can spend more time on fewer companies, get to know them better and see if they’ve got a great runway for growth.
The case for Emerging Markets external debt is solid. The long-term risk-reward has been and remains compelling. The outlook over the medium-term also favours the asset class as the unwinding of distortions in global bond markets attributable to Quantitative Easing strongly favour EM over developed markets.
Tariffs are paid by U.S.-based importing companies, which pass the extra expenses on to the end consumer. As such, tariffs are inflationary, and historically, that’s been good for gold
Primed for growth, Asia’s health care sector helps capture consumer spending in the region.
Value investors have fared poorly over the last decade, as traditional value indices have trailed their corresponding growth counterparts. But that doesn’t mean that all value funds have done poorly. Indeed, one notable exception has been the Matthews Asia Value Fund (MAVRX).
