Our latest survey of global fixed income investment firms reveals conflicting viewpoints between interest-rate managers and credit managers on growth expectations and risk assets.
Over the past decade, exploration and production companies (“producers”) have been in a land grab battle as shale oil resources (“shale oil plays”) have emerged across the United States.
Why are we so bad at probabilities and worse at understanding consequences?
Advocates of MMT insist that governments can and should print as much money as needed to fund massive public works, guarantee government jobs for the unemployed and much more. This is a recipe for runaway hyperinflation.
Major secular drivers could disrupt the global economy and financial markets over the next three to five years. We share our views on risks and opportunities ahead.
Gold is one of the rarest elements in the world, making up roughly 0.003 parts per million of the earth’s crust. But how much gold is the world digging up each year and what countries produce the most?
With more and more outside capital circling, everyone wants in on the RIA M&A game. Given this is an industry-wide trend, why do we only see press coverage of acquisitions from the same few firms?
Anytime you are in a meeting, recording a YouTube video or speaking on stage, the position of your hands matters.
After breaking out of a five-year trading range this week, gold surged above $1,400 for the first time since 2013 on expectations of a U.S. rate cut. Meanwhile, the global pool of negative-yielding bonds hit a fresh record high $13 trillion.
On the latest edition of Market Week in Review, Quantitative Investment Strategist Dr. Kara Ng and Rob Cittadini, director, Americas institutional, discussed the recent rise in markets, deteriorating economic data and newfound optimism surrounding the China-U.S. trade war.
Today, Chevron (NYSE: CVX) announced they plan to acquire Anadarko Petroleum (NYSE: APC). We saw many corporate deals struck last year (Concho/RSP Permian, Diamondback/Energen, Encana/Newfield, etc.) and have expected sector consolidation to continue in 2019 as oil prices have rebounded and companies look to benefit from strategic synergies.
Creating a sustainable fixed-income portfolio isn’t just about avoiding harm–it’s about doing good. The UN’s Sustainable Development Goals provide a road map for selecting companies that offer products and services that help the environment and create a more equitable, just world.
The tone of the FOMC statement and press conference was a notable shift from the May meeting, given uncertainty around the economic outlook.
Facebook, you’ve come a long way. From its humble beginnings as a platform to stalk your high school girlfriend, the social media giant has evolved to become one of the world’s largest and most influential advertisers, news aggregators and data gatherers.
Before you jump on the low-volatility bandwagon, it’s important you understand that the research demonstrates that the performance of the low-volatility factor is actually well explained by exposure to other factors, and it is also highly regime dependent.
I expand on recent articles by David Blanchett, Zvi Bodie and Dirk Cotton by comparing the income-generating properties of SPIAs to VAs and FIAs with guaranteed lifetime withdrawal benefits (GLWBs), and place particular emphasis on how inflation risk impacts income.
Billionaire investor Paul Tudor Jones, founder of and hedge fund manager at Tudor Investment Corp., said this week that geopolitical disruptions have made gold his favorite trade for the next 12 to 24 months.
I am often asked whether the underperformance of U.S. value stocks over the last decade is a result of overcrowding. We can address that issue by examining the spreads in valuations of growth and value stocks. If overcrowding has occurred, we should see a dramatic narrowing in valuations.
If you believe you’re a good person and that what you offer adds value to others’ lives, then why would you want to rob anyone out of the opportunity to buy what you have to sell?
Investing in emerging markets looks very different than it did in 1995. We discuss how technology is rapidly changing the investment landscape.
Amid a renewed US-China trade spat and additional tariff tensions between the United States and Mexico, investor concerns about a possible recession have heightened.
Adding a featured image is an essential part of creating effective website content.
In the space of a year, populists with autocratic tendencies have taken office in Mexico and Brazil, and laid the groundwork to return to power in Argentina. With the three largest economies in Latin America destined for further mismanagement, the prospects for growth in the region are dim.
The sudden escalation of trade tensions that have originated from Washington is casting doubt over the outlook. If the escalation continues, the global economy will continue to decelerate and recession risks will rise.
As I watched this year’s Berkshire Hathaway Annual Meeting, one thing struck me. There was sheer enthusiasm around the annual shareholder meeting for anything tech-oriented. Yes, it was disclosed that Berkshire had taken a position in Amazon that Friday, but it goes deeper.
The expectation of a global rebound in the second half of 2019 was predicated on a positive resolution in the trade talks between the U.S. and China and the U.S. and the European Union. With a burst of stimulus from the Peoples Bank of China and Chinese fiscal stimulus since last summer, the global economy was beginning to show signs of improvement.
Modern Monetary Theory (MMT) has moved from the fringe to broader public discussion recently, fueling concern from some investors about growing debt levels. We don’t expect MMT to replace our current economic structure, but its populist-inspired underpinnings will likely have a sizable influence on policy.
25% of Europeans vote for a populist now, and rising populism has a devastating impact on GDP growth, as more and more capital is misallocated which is an economic term for capital being deployed unproductively. Rising populism is obviously not the only reason why more and more capital is misallocated, but it is nevertheless an important reason.
After my father, a Pearl Harbor survivor, died in 2011, we found a shoebox. It contained items that belonged to my Uncle Bill (my mother’s brother), who had also served in WWII. There was Bill’s birth certificate and baptism record, an address book, and some pages that looked like they were torn out of a diary.
Nasdaq President & CEO Adena Friedman talks candidly with Envestnet Head of Asset Manager Distribution about the future of financial advising, adding value for clients, work/life balance, and why Nasdaq isn’t just an exchange but a global technology company.
Once upon a time, US municipal bonds were generally considered less risky than corporate bonds. Backed by the full faith and credit of state governments, investors had confidence they would receive their principal plus interest without fail. Times have changed.
Many are wondering why the market for Initial Public Offerings (IPOs) has performed so poorly, even though the flood of hot new ones came to market recently. It took three years to choke demand for money-losing dot-com IPO companies back in 1997, even though Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan called the mania for tech stocks in late 1996 an “irrational exuberance.” What has killed the goose which traditionally laid the golden eggs on Wall Street?
May’s “flash” index of U.S. manufacturers registered a sharp decline to 50.6. This is only a preliminary reading, but if it turns out to be accurate, it would mark the slowest growth in the domestic manufacturing industry since September 2009
The stock market priced in a long Trade War with China this week with a 1.5% decline in the S&P 500, at it’s low on Thursday. Or so they said on TV. In the old days, it would take a few days for information like that to become the consensus opinion.
In the early 1980s I began to read books on goal-setting, listen to motivational audio programs and go to personal development seminars. These resources inspired some new habits, among them a morning "success ritual" that has served me well, which I'll share here.
The economic calendar is one of the lightest, and a long holiday weekend impends. How will this news vacuum be filled? Probably with celebrity news, following the latest tweets, analyzing any new Democrats running for President, and interviews with B-level guests.
Technology unicorns are in the spotlight, with Uber’s high-profile IPO expected this week. As scrutiny of their business models intensifies, we think investors should also ask tough questions about publicly traded companies with high sales growth but scant cash flows.
Planning for a successful retirement is about much more than just an investment strategy that will provide you with sufficient assets to fund your desired lifestyle. It’s also about planning for a meaningful life in retirement.
It is often said that no one saw the crash coming. Many did, but since it was “bearish” to discuss such things, the warnings were readily dismissed.
It’s been a tough road for value investors during the past decade or so, even leading some pundits to declare the investing style is dead.
The global economy appears to be heading out of a soft patch within its continued expansion. In the coming months, we expect a pickup in economic activity, stable global growth, moderate-to-low inflation pressure and accommodative monetary policy across most regions. Read on for a visual snapshot of growth themes across the globe.
Fees are the root of most client conflicts. Clients say they are too high and you defend them based on the value being added. An interesting study provides insight for how to handle these (and other) conflicts.
There’s a behavioral finance model of finance that colors investors’ decisions. Read our takeaways from Roger Ibbotson’s (and et al) study — Popularity: A Bridge Between Classical and Behavioral Finance...
A recent comment from Chamrath Palihapitiya last week suggests that may be the case. An award to an aspiring economist who wants to study ending recessions. But are #recessions a bad thing?
Wie Gehts mit Deutschland?; Jump-Starting U.S. Startups; Big Data Is Changing Inflation
Global copper capacity could be short some 41,000 tons by as early as 2021, says one commodities research firm. Meaning: We could be looking at another commodities super-cycle, with the red metal leading the way.
I attended an advisor summit in Chicago this past week. On stage was a good friend from S&P Dow Jones Indices. He referenced an article S&P published last fall about poor quality in the popular “leveraged loan” segment of the corporate bond market. Dull, I know, but hang in with me for a short few paragraphs, I promise this week’s missive gets better.
A look at combined problems of pensions and lack of savings facing #babyboomers as they face retirement.
There is a herd of unicorns prancing through Wall Street and the bulk of money is chasing them. A “unicorn” refers to a startup, usually venture-backed, that achieves a private valuation in excess of $1 billion whether they are profitable or not when they become public.
It will soon be possible for guests at Marriott hotels in China to bypass lines at the registration desk and check in at a kiosk using facial recognition. Halfway across the globe, Marriott workers are going on strike, seeking higher wages and workplace safety. Artificial intelligence and robotics are at the heart of those highly promising but disruptive innovations. I am speaking today with someone whose index invests in robotics, automation and artificial intelligence companies that are at the heart of those trends.
