Just recently, Rex Nutting penned an opinion piece for MarketWatch entitled “Consumer Debt Is Not A Ticking Time Bomb.” His primary point is that low per-capita debt ratios and debt-to-dpi ratios show the consumer is quite healthy and won’t be the primary subject of the next crisis.
As the topic of recession remains top of mind for many investors, now is the opportune time to consider preparing your portfolio in the event of a pullback.
The saddest part is that the world trading system does, indeed, have serious problems, many of which emanate from China. We need to fix them. I fully support that goal. I am glad we have an administration that takes Chinese behavior seriously. But the tariff strategy is making the situation worse, not better, and the focus on trade deficits is entirely misplaced.
Inverted yield curves, Fed cutting rates, and more QE all seem to "the bell ringing" for investors to jump into stocks as markets rise. But, is this the bell ringing to buy stocks, or is it the bell ringing the top of the market?
According to John Sheehan, accommodative Fed policy and favorable market technicals drove the investment grade credit market’s strong start to 2019.
Stock markets have become more volatile as trade tensions have worsened and weakness in the manufacturing side of the economy has caused increasing concern. Swift resolutions to these issues seem unlikely and a dovish Fed may not be the elixir to what ails the economy. With the likelihood of persistent volatility in the coming months, we recommend investors stay broadly diversified and focused on the long term. From a tactical perspective, we remain neutral to U.S. and global equities; with a bias within the U.S. market toward large cap stocks relative to small caps. Investors should not attempt to trade around short-term moves in the equity markets; but instead remain disciplined, diversified, and use rebalancing as necessary.
his year’s conversations focused on three key long-term themes which were discussed one by one. 1. A future where global interest rates remain permanently near zero. 2. Modern Monetary Theory (MMT) and US fiscal strategy. 3. A fundamental change in the US/China relationship
The summer of 2019 has given equity investors a lot of things to worry about. Yet, Franklin Equity Group’s Grant Bowers says the health of the US equity bull market shouldn’t be one of them—at least not now.
Global economic activity indicators are signaling that the manufacturing-driven slowdown has not yet run its course. However, we remain optimistic that activity will pick up in the latter half of 2019 without a recession in the US or China. Read on for a visual snapshot of growth themes across the globe.
In light of the Federal Reserve’s recent interest-rate cut, our Fixed Income CIO Sonal Desai takes a look at how US central bank thinking seems to have changed, and whether there’s a risk of having interest rates too close to zero.
Global growth is slowing. Corporate profits are shrinking. Business investment is waning. And the seemingly-perpetual bull market, buoyed by the longest U.S. expansion on record as evidenced by the S&P 500, may be entering its final stages.
The economic calendar is normal, featuring housing starts, retail sales, and Michigan sentiment. The CPI will be important someday, but only when it breaks the recent path of gentle increases. With summer vacations in full swing (even Congress is on a five-week recess) the punditry turns to tried and true topics...
It’s time for the CFP Board to acknowledge that it has been misleading consumers and causing them financial harm. The penalties for its misdeeds must go beyond mere admonishments and pressure to fix its vetting and enforcement problems. The scale and brazenness of the Board’s transgressions warrants financial accountability and an end to the Board’s efforts to gain control over the financial planning industry.
Gold headed for its best week in nearly two months as the value of negative-yielding debt touched a new record of $15 trillion. The 10-year Treasury yield fell below 2 percent, pushing gold above $1,500 an ounce for the first time since September 2013.
Market volatility has been on the rise as US-China trade tensions continue to flare and recent central bank activity has created more questions than answers. As such, many investors have been on edge.
What shifts from tariffs to currency mean in the US-China trade war.
Larry Kotlikoff will share some provocative ideas on what caused the Great Recession. As you’ll read, he demolishes the explanations Wall Street and Pennsylvania Avenue want us to believe. Instead, he argues that our financial system was built to fail, failed spectacularly, and was then rebuilt to die another day.
At the moment, there are roughly 15T dollars of debt “earning” negative interest rates in the global economy, a state not anticipated in modern macroeconomic theory first proposed by Keynes and Samuelson during the 30s and 40s.
As rates fall to zero in most of the world, the line that has been ringing in our mind is “You can check out any time you like, but you can never leave!” This is a chorus investors have sung through their capital allocations. We believe the Eagles provided an excellent understanding of what today’s market is giving investors in their song, Hotel California.
It is no longer absurd to think that the nominal yield on U.S. Treasury securities could go negative.
The manufacturing side of the economy is showing increasing signs of weakness, but the consumer still looks healthy—which side wins and what should investors do?
Last week many traders, not investors, became “trapped” in the equity markets as most of the major averages had their worst week of the year. I wish we could say we called the downturn, but all we thought would happen was a mild pullback.
Say what you will about this past week, it certainly wasn’t dull. The Federal Reserve, seemingly capitulating to President Donald Trump and Wall Street, became just the latest central bank to cut interest rates.
Expectation that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates has been a primary factor driving investor sentiment and actions in recent months. It should be noted, though, that the considerations and actions of the Fed are part of a complex ecosystem that has financial, political and behavioral components that come with considerable uncertainty.
In this last quarter, the rapid rise in gold prices has got everyone talking. A slew of factors are combining to create the perfect storm in favor of Gold, and if you haven’t looked at Gold yet, you’re missing out big time.
The Northern Trust Economics team shares its growth outlook for the U.S., U.K., Eurozone, Japan and China.
If you examine the portfolio of the Daily Journal, run by Berkshire Hathaway (BRKB) Vice Chairman Charlie Munger, you will see three main stocks. In 2009, near the market bottom, Munger purchased shares of Wells Fargo (WFC), Bank of America (BAC) and U.S. Bancorp (USB).
I’m a firm believer that your thoughts manifest your future. It’s very hard to make money and be successful when you’re always expecting the worst to happen.
There are good reasons to think we could once again see some fiat currencies disappear. If so, what “something else” will be money in the future?
There may come a time, sooner than you think, when the world economy simply cannot operate to its full potential without bitcoin, Facebook’s proposed Libra or some other large-scale digital currency.
Now that gold has broken through the $1,450 an ounce level, a six-high year high, the next big test is $1,500. And as I’ve said before, it can do this in the blink of an eye under the right conditions.
This article is a refresh and an update of an article I originally posted in 2015. However, the principles I am presenting are timeless and worthy of being revisited. Moreover, I have updated the supporting examples to more precisely reflect our current market environment.
When not taking on credit risk in a bond investment, which is better: individual Treasury bonds, FDIC-insured CDs or a mutual fund?
Game theory is a useful framework for modeling aspects of sovereign debt recoveries, given that it models the interactions among debtors and creditors in the lending/borrowing "game." While there is a long-established set of precedents for Paris Club (U.S. & European) and multilateral (IMF, etc) creditors’ actions, we still have little available information about how China will act in debt negotiations.
Economists are stunned by why economic growth remains at low levels a decade after the last recession. Here's why.
Many observe the impacts of e-commerce growth as decimating commercial retail properties, leaving empty big-box warehouses and strip malls in its wake. While this may be true to a certain extent, it ignores the potential opportunity this new trend is creating in the industrial property sector.
The economic calendar is normal and includes several important reports. I am especially interested in the housing data and retail sales. More important than the economic data is the start of earnings season.
As an active investment manager with a firm commitment to integrating environmental, social and governance analysis into its investment processes, Franklin Templeton recognizes its responsibility to raise awareness of climate transition issues.
Here are the mechanics and benefits of submitting custom content to relevant publications.
What really makes us “old" – our chronological age or our attitude?
The Northern Trust Economics team shares its outlook for U.S. economic growth, inflation, unemployment and interest rates.
This is the third in a series of posts focusing on the formula of advisor value. Here we discuss the cost of basic investment-only management—which is not only worthwhile, but necessary. Yet it should also be a warning sign if your value proposition is based solely on your investment management prowess.
Quarterly commentary giving an overview of the markets and the importance of having and implementing a strategy when investing in the markets.
Investors to bond issuers: “We’ll pay you to borrow money from us.”
Greetings from Montréal one of my favorite cities in the World. The climes here are cooler than in Florida and the weather is perfect, which is a nice respite from Florida’s heat and humidity. I am here to see some institutional accounts and speak at an event in one of my favorite restaurants on Peel Street...
Accelerated demand for regional debt suggests a constructive remainder of 2019 for bonds in the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC), according to Dino Kronfol, chief investment officer, Franklin Templeton Global Sukuk and MENA Fixed Income. He outlines four things that are at the top of his mind for GCC debt in the current economic climate. He also shares why he thinks the MENA region could provide fertile ground for fixed income investors searching for yield.
The quarter was a good one for investors, overcoming fears of an all-out U.S.-China trade war. The S&P 500 index rose roughly 4% for the quarter and was up ~17% for the year. It was the market’s best first half performance since 1997 and extended the more than decade long bull market.
