Classical conditioning teaches us a valuable lesson regarding the current investor dilemma. Pavlov’s research discovered a basic psychological rule: when a neutral stimulus is repeatedly paired with a reward‑stimulus, eventually it will trigger the same response even when the reward is absent.
As policy priorities evolve, Japan’s focus on “responsible fiscal expansion” could reshape bond dynamics.
Every innovation follows a lifecycle, from breakthrough to ubiquity to obsolescence. The Edison bulb once lit up the world, transforming how we lived and worked. But it was ultimately replaced by more efficient and sustainable alternatives.
Last week’s main story for markets was the meeting between U.S. President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping. Following the talks, both sides announced a modest set of agreements aimed at improving trade relations.
Markets were taken by surprise by Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Powell’s strong suggestion that a rate cut in December is not a certainty, as they were sure they were going to get one at December’s Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting.
On this episode of the “ETF of the Week” podcast, VettaFi’s Head of Research, Todd Rosenbluth, discussed the Capital Group Municipal Income ETF (CGMU) with Chuck Jaffe of Money Life. The pair discussed several topics related to the fund to give investors a deeper understanding of the ETF.
October saw some strong data for bond ETFs, according to recent research, suggesting opportunities may abound in the category.
Nothing says gold is hot quite like a story that big US banks are considering getting back into the business of holding other people’s bullion.
Adding AWS as a key cloud provider can ease some pressure for OpenAI, especially as it continues to farm out more contracts to neocloud providers like CoreWeave, which operates at a much smaller scale than AWS.
Rick Kahler highlights a tool for helping investors achieve balance between two opposing financial concepts.
U.S. workers, particularly those in the Gen Z and millennial generations, are facing a “financial vortex” of financial pressures that are eating into their savings, including rising debt, housing, healthcare and caregiving costs.
Investors are bracing for Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent to lean more toward shorter maturities in the government’s funding mix to keep down long-term yields amid a mounting debt burden.
The Halloween week Fed meeting was more trick than treat for bonds with only a mild and temporary scare for stocks. As soon as Chair Powell signaled the next cut is “not a foregone conclusion – far from it!,” the Dow swooned before recovering about half the drop, while the 10-year drifted higher.
The good news for investors is that history may be on their side. According to the Halloween effect—also known as the Halloween strategy or indicator—stocks have tended to outperform in the six-month period from November to the end of April, compared to the six months from May to the end of October.
History is absolutely clear – Capitalism is the best system ever developed (actually evolved by human experiment) to boost living standards. At the same time, Socialism has a seriously lousy record.
Progress toward resolving the US government shutdown remains limited despite increased bipartisan dialogue. Senate Majority Leader John Thune noted that “a lot more conversations” are happening across the aisle, suggesting some softening in tone compared with previous weeks.
The term 'digital gold' is often used by cryptocurrency enthusiasts to describe Bitcoin, Ethereum, and similar assets. However, our latest research shows they behave differently in portfolios. We look at how liquidity and uncertainty drive returns, and why that matters for positioning.
The market has become much less cyclical over time, and valuations have increased alongside growth and quality.
Everyone is wondering if we’re in another tech bubble. Tech companies are breaking valuation records, with Nvidia Corp. leading the charge. On Wednesday, it became the first company ever to reach a $5 trillion market cap.
For the second straight meeting, the Fed cut the federal funds rate by a quarter percent on Wednesday. In an even more aggressive move toward monetary easing, the FOMC also announced balance sheet reduction will end in December.
Wall Street is riding this era of American state capitalism — tracking it, packaging it and offering it back to investors through a new ETF.
Five of the so-called “Magnificent Seven” firms reported earnings this week in a major milestone for 2025’s economic narrative. Apple (AAPL), Amazon (AMZN), Microsoft (MSFT), Google (GOOGL), and Meta (META) all shared their earnings, offering some important insights into key tech firms amid the AI revolution.
More than a generation ago, financial historian Peter Bernstein wrote about investors’ 'memory banks,' the market experience that accumulates in their hippocampi over their investing lives and molds their investment strategy. As he put it, looking back on the 1990s: 'Most of the new participants in the market had no memory of what a bear market was like.'
My series on Ray Dalio’s book raised a bunch of questions, one of which stood out above the others. To paraphrase, readers asked, 'How do we get ready for this?' It is certainly fair for you all to ask what I am personally doing to prepare for the big picture I anticipate. It’s tough to answer because the coming debt crisis could unfold in many different ways.
Gold is not immune to market cycles. It’s a volatile asset driven by shifting narratives and capital flows. If you’re buying gold today, understand what’s supporting the price, and what could shake that support loose. Treat gold as a hedge, not a core growth asset.
Michael Saylor is raising the stakes for almost everyone that is touched by his multibillion dollar bet on Bitcoin.
One of the things we have in common with Warren Buffett is that we started our risk-taking career handicapping at racetracks. Buffett handicapped the horse races in Omaha, and I handicapped greyhound races near Portland at Multnomah Kennel Club in Gresham, Oregon.
Gold steadied near $4,000 an ounce as traders weighed a US-China trade truce that failed to quash concerns about long-term competition between the world’s two largest economies.
The federal government shutdown shut off the steady stream of economic reports relied on by investors to gauge the health of the economy and financial markets. However, the much-anticipated September Consumer Price Index (CPI) report was released last week, as it was needed to determine cost-of-living adjustments for Social Security payments.
The Federal Reserve lowered its policy interest rate by 25 basis points, as widely expected. However, dissenting votes may cloud the path forward.
We see the global economy as undergoing a period of “global rewiring” on a number of fronts—evolving patterns and relationships that we anticipate affecting certain economies and markets for some time to come. Such rewiring could cover relationships between countries or developments within particular regions or economies.
China’s ability to sustain fairly robust economic growth despite a massive property sector downturn is now facing new tests as global trade barriers rise, and domestic demand shows fresh signs of weakness.
Tucked into President Donald Trump’s trade deals formalizing higher tariffs on goods from Asia this week are provisions for a global economic frontier the US wants to stay free of protectionism: digital commerce.
Global electricity demand is accelerating as AI data centers, electrification, and economic growth drive an unprecedented need for reliable energy. Nuclear power is uniquely positioned to meet this challenge, delivering clean, zero-emission baseload electricity with the highest capacity factor of any major energy source.
Novo Nordisk A/S made an unsolicited bid for US biotech firm Metsera Inc., sparking a heated battle with Pfizer Inc. to get their hands on weight-loss treatments that both drugmakers want in order to regain lost ground in the booming market.
Last week’s economic narrative centered around the Federal Reserve's latest rate cut, a decision complicated by the government shutdown and lack of economic data.
Rather than toil over the construction of an ideal fixed income portfolio for a client, advisors can simply apply a template primed for success using Vanguard’s model portfolios. On that note, Vanguard just introduced two new dynamic asset allocation fixed income model portfolios that can suit various investor profiles.
Effectively reading the Federal Reserve's Beige Book can help investors spot economic, industry, and consumer trends that could potentially impact investment portfolios.
One of the most fundamental decisions facing fixed-income investors is determining the optimal maturity for their Treasury holdings.
We continue to hold gold across all strategies, viewing it as a strategic asset. Central banks remain steady buyers, underscoring gold’s role as both a store of value and an inflation hedge.
The three themes we laid out will take a few years to play out, if at all. Our portfolio positioning reflects our belief in the economic strength and momentum of the US Tech / AI trade, and we would want to see more policy clarity and earnings confirmation before we make any large shifts into international.
Amazon.com Inc.’s cloud unit posted the strongest growth rate in almost three years, reassuring investors who were concerned that the largest seller of rented computing power was losing ground to rivals. The shares surged.
Euro-area inflation eased slightly but stayed above 2%, backing the European Central Bank’s decision to keep borrowing costs where they are.
There’s no official read on how fast the US economy grew last quarter, thanks to the government shutdown. But almost everyone reckons it was a healthy pace — and that’s largely thanks to AI.
This bull market has been on quite a run. The S&P 500 is up 35% since its April 8, 2025 year-to-date low, and up over 92% since it began on October 12, 2022, excluding dividends.
The Federal Reserve’s October rate cut, to 3.75%–4%, signals a continued “risk management” approach, with December’s policy path tilting toward another cut.
The politics of the government shutdown are about to get trickier. Today is Day 28 of the government shutdown. The Senate will be in session this week, but the House of Representatives remains in recess.
While many lessons have evolved over time, one maxim has never changed for children: look both ways before crossing the street. I reinforced with my children to then look again. We might not see everything on a quick glance, and traffic can change quickly.
The Multi-Sector Credit Team share perspectives on the fixed income market and their quarterly asset allocation ranking. They highlight a timely chart to watch, explore relative value opportunities, and provide insight on their latest asset allocation scores by fixed income sub-sector.
It lacks the effervescence of copper and the geopolitical allure of rare earths – yet aluminum is the metal of the moment. Key to modern life and everywhere in the global economy, it’s entering a make-or-break phase: Either the world is sleepwalking into a supply crisis or further into the hands of China. Or, more worryingly, both.
