Though deemed to be “Modern” portfolio theory (MPT), the primary framework used to construct diversified portfolios and deliver risk-adjusted investment returns is now well over 50 years old. Enhancements have helped keep MPT’s 60% equity and 40% bond allocation formula relevant for decades.
Gold has been top of mind for many investors this week, with prices falling significantly at the start of the week. Despite a strong run in 2025, traditional valuation models suggest gold prices may have become somewhat stretched, creating some fragility in the asset class.
Monthly checks for nearly 71 million Americans receiving Social Security benefits will increase by 2.8% next year, a slightly larger adjustment than seen in 2025.
The core consumer price index, excluding the often volatile food and energy categories, increased 0.2% from August, according to Bureau of Labor Statistics data out Friday. That was restrained by the smallest increase in a key measure of housing costs since early 2021.
Gold resembles stocks more than bonds in terms of risk, although stocks have been better performers. Since 1968, gold has been about 20% more volatile than the S&P 500 while trailing it by 2.3 percentage points a year.
After an extended period of surprisingly resilient economic activity, marked by buoyant consumer spending and robust labor market gains, the U.S. economy is shifting gears. The sprint phase, characterized by fiscal tailwinds and pent-up demand, is giving way to a more measured pace.
To analyze the impact of the Fed’s rate cut on the bond market, we are going to look at the impact of Treasuries maturing between 2 and 10 years and Treasuries maturing between 10 and 30 years. We will explore the month prior to the Fed’s September meeting and the month after, in order to understand the full impact of the Fed’s decision to cut rates.
The interest rate volatility over the last three years has many investors reaching for bond ladders. We think there’s a best number of bonds to navigate the market and, coincidentally, it has something in common with a sci-fi classic.
Aggressive policy changes from Washington have introduced potential long-term economic risks, but markets continue to rally because the near-term conditions remain favorable.
Secondary economic indicators have taken on heightened importance amid the ongoing government shutdown. Read through a handful of these secondary reports from the week of October 13th-18th.
Earnings season gets underway this week, with reports from major banks providing the first look at corporate performance. The technology sector is expected to be the standout performer with over 20% projected earnings growth, driven by the ongoing "AI arms race".
The de facto “passive” allocation of 60% equities/40% bonds has proven effective at compounding wealth over time by tapping into two key risk premia: the equity risk premium earned by underwriting the risk of an economic growth shock and an inflation risk premium received for bearing the risk of surprise inflation.
Northern Trust Asset Management provided justification for the mounting interest in munis in the fixed income space.
Over the last few years, the US housing market has defied expectations as prices, helped by constrained supply, have remained resilient—despite high mortgage rates and affordability challenges for homebuyers. But the outlook appears to be darkening, with recent headlines seizing on potentially adverse trends.
Granted, the Fed’s monetary policy doesn’t directly determine economic growth. It operates by influencing broader financial conditions, which have eased a lot in the past year. Stock prices have risen, bond yields have declined and the dollar has weakened.
David Arana always had a thing for numbers. That passion took him to MIT to study mathematics and later to New York, where he traded credit derivatives for Deutsche Bank AG.
On a recent episode of the Money Metals podcast, host Mike Maharrey interviewed Greg Weldon. Gold had pushed past $4,300, and silver broke $54 on the day of recording.
The most useful conversations about crypto don't start with block times or cryptography; they start with the monetary system. When money supply compounds and confidence in policy waxes and wanes, investors may reach for hard assets—tangible, scarce resources with intrinsic use value whose supply is difficult or costly to expand.
Earnings growth and attractive valuations for Japanese companies, reforms to corporate governance, and other shifts in the Japanese economy may create opportunities for investors.
In corporate credit markets, early indicators of stress often emerge subtly — not through dramatic dislocations, but through nuanced shifts in borrower behavior and market dynamics.
At times like this, our Internal Financial System™ comes alive. Inside us, different parts react to the same market in opposite ways. A risk-taking part may feel emboldened by the gains and want to buy more.
Last week’s scheduled release of the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for September was postponed due to the ongoing federal government shutdown, which has disrupted the operations of key agencies like the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS).
As the market concerns itself with a potential artificial intelligence (AI) bubble, there is a clearer and more practical approach that can be taken by investing in companies that could potentially benefit as AI technology progresses.
Head of U.S. Fixed Income Greg Wilensky and Portfolio Manager Jeremiah Buckley discuss how balanced strategies can help investors stay true to their long-term objectives by providing a less volatile option to an all-equity portfolio.
So while there is a lot of focus on drug prices, measures taken to date are unlikely to make a meaningful impact on costs paid by the U.S. and its citizens. More fundamental reform would likely take an act of Congress, which would be hotly contested by lobbyists. There is no end in sight for debate on this front.
The 10-year Treasury briefly tested 4% and slipped just below, exactly what you’d expect when credit jitters boost demand for safe collateral. Real yields eased as well, consistent with a modest risk-off bid. Treasuries remain the cleanest hedge when credit fears pop, and that relationship asserted itself again last week.
A relentless surge in the price of gold is delivering windfalls across emerging markets, boosting investor confidence in countries that mine and buy the metal.
Stock markets are at all-time highs, public companies are shutting down their operations to buy bitcoin, consumers can bet in real time on almost anything they can imagine, “meme stocks” are back in full force, even the US government is buying stocks.
As we recently argued, investors don’t need to worry about the federal government shutdown showdown causing a recession. Before the current shutdown, the federal government had been shut for eighty days in the prior thirty years, with none of those days during a recession.
Active fixed income ETFs can provide the refresh many investors want as the year draws to an end in an uncertain rate market.
Seldom has the middling been the cause of so much relief. Six months after the White House unveiled steep tariffs, the global economy has held up well — mainly by outperforming some doleful projections. There's been no recession. Forecasts have even been revised up a touch.
All it took was a classic bout of haven buying to wake up a slumbering Treasuries market and drive benchmark yields to the lowest in months.
Every market cycle eventually changes investor psychology to believe risk has been conquered.
Debt-driven growth definitely feels good. We all enjoy it immensely as long as it lasts. Then the lights go out and the party’s over. Yes, it starts again, but not until we all stumble around in the dark for a while.
In another sign that we are entering an era of even looser monetary policy, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell hinted that balance sheet reduction is about to come to an end.
There is little question that the key economic storyline of Q3 was the fact that new job creation was not anywhere near as solid as the markets and, perhaps more importantly, the Fed believed.
Monetary and fiscal policy are now decisively stimulative to the economy thanks to interest rate cuts and the passage of the One Big Beautiful Bill Act. This should provide a tailwind to investments.
The third quarter demonstrated the market’s ability to focus on powerful, long-term themes like technological productivity and monetary policy, even amidst significant short-term political noise. While large technology companies were once again a driver of headline returns, the positive performance across nearly all global asset classes rewarded a diversified approach.
The stock and bond markets are taking the government shutdown—and lack of data releases—in stride, but how long the calm might last is an open question.
In a week marked by renewed S&P 500 volatility stemming from reignited tariff talks and the ongoing challenge of a government shutdown that continues to delay crucial government reports, investors and analysts have increasingly turned to secondary economic indicators for a timely view of the U.S. economy.
Wall Street has finally capitulated to gold’s record-breaking run.
Rare earth elements have become the latest flashpoint in the collision between geopolitics and markets.
With Congress unable to reach an agreement on funding the government, a government shutdown began when the new fiscal year started on October 1.
The U.S. economy shows moderate growth and rising inflation, with manufacturing lagging and services expanding. Recession fears have faded; policy uncertainty and deficits remain concerns. AI drives market highs, gold surges, and investment focuses on healthcare, materials, and gold.
To start from the top, the dollar’s doing fine. Having appreciated 3% in the past month, it remains above its 40-year average. It still commands the lion’s share of currency trading and global central bank reserves, even if international investors are hedging more exposure.
We examine the broader implications of China’s threat to expand restrictions on rare-earth exports.
Big banks begin reporting Tuesday and are expected to benefit from a steeper yield curve, strong trading, and investment banking demand. The profit path ahead is less certain.
Medicare open enrollment, which is underway and runs until December 7, allows individuals to change or sign up for plans, potentially saving money and/or improving their coverage. Our Bill Cass shares the key things you need to know.
During the third quarter of 2025, the U.S. markets demonstrated notable resilience despite facing a complex mix of trade tensions, policy shifts, and economic sector-specific developments.
In just two years, India has gone from being the best-loved emerging market to the most sold, and now investors are bracing themselves for yet another quarter of disappointing corporate earnings.
