China's economy was the first to suffer the consequences of fighting the novel coronavirus and is the first on the road to recovery. After an initial cover-up and more than 3,000 deaths, China appears to have brought COVID-19 under control and laid the foundation for a gradual economic recovery, although normal activity levels may not be reached until 2021.
Downturns of this magnitude are so dramatic that they inevitably produce a “new world order” with a very uneven distribution of winners and losers, he maintains.
The COVID-19 pandemic could devastate parts of the developing world. But with a concerted, cooperative, and holistic approach, the international community can avoid a large-scale humanitarian tragedy in vulnerable regions – and protect the rest of the world from destabilizing blowback.
The entirety of the financial media and many on Wall Street believe a V-shaped economic recovery is in our future. While I hope they are right, it would be foolish to take such analysis and, quite frankly, unwarranted optimism, at face value.
Some 6.6 million additional workers filed for jobless claims this week, but it’s always darkest before the dawn. There’s ample reason to keep hope alive that conditions will be improving sooner than expected.
With recent data showing a coronavirus-driven recession in the United States appears inevitable, the question for many investors is how long it will last. Sonal Desai, Chief Investment Officer, Franklin Templeton Fixed Income, weighs in on the differences between this one and other recessionary periods—and whether policymakers can engineer a recovery.
While the US economy continues to suffer the wrath of the coronavirus, a recovery will eventually come. Franklin Equity Group's Grant Bowers provides his latest update on the US equity market, and what he and his team have an eye on with a long-term investment view.
A head-spinning 6.6 million Americans filed new claims for unemployment benefits this week bringing the two-week total to 10 million. That’s more than the combined populations of Los Angeles and Chicago.
Matt provides a framework that he and his team use to make sense of the headlines and the price bids flashing on their monitors. His realistic, yet hopeful outlook provides a roadmap for successfully navigating this universal crisis together.
To say that a lot has changed in the last month is a tremendous understatement. The markets are playing a weak supporting role to the worst healthcare challenge in our generation, as well as the worst economic problem since 2008.
Even with all the benefits attributable to closed-end funds—intraday trading, low financing costs of leverage, ability to be fully invested, and consistent source of income—they have some idiosyncrasies that present challenges, especially during extreme volatility
In a typical recession, the global economy tends to have large imbalances that take a long time to unwind, such as a housing bubble or overinvestment by businesses. This time the global economy is experiencing a shock, rather than the natural end result of a slow build-up of excesses.
Much will depend on how fast businesses bring back jobs.
The coronavirus will accelerate the changes to the wealth management industry predicted by McKinsey & Co.
Michael Grant is preparing for rebound in equities and has positioned the long/short portfolio accordingly. To use a Wayne Gretzky analogy, he is skating to where the puck will be, not where it is.
On Friday, Congress approved and President Trump signed into law a $2.2 trillion emergency stimulus package, the largest in U.S. history. Most American adults will be receiving a one-time payment of $1,200 in cash.
This week, residents of San Antonio, Texas, home to U.S. Global Investors, were ordered to work from home, with some exceptions. Like countless people in other parts of the country and world, our team has had to quickly and nimbly adapt to a new normal, and to be innovative in the face of new challenges.
Global markets have not yet reached a bottom, but Nick Niziolek believes the global economy and markets could be in recovery mode by the second half of the year, with China and other overseas markets making strong contributions.
Japanese growth stocks, along with global equities, experienced considerable volatility in the first quarter. Uncertainty around the coronavirus, slowdowns in global manufacturing activity and worries about dampened consumer activity related to Japan's consumption tax each impacted Japan's markets.
That was the last time the world witnessed a sustained downturn in both emerging markets and their developed-nation counterparts.
Postcard from Vietnam: On a research trip to Vietnam before the coronavirus crisis, our analysts discovered what it takes for manufacturers to outsource successfully.
Hopes for a pact between Texas oil and OPEC have begun to unravel.
These extreme measures appear to be having great success, particularly in Asian countries. Whereas the number of cases continues to rise in Italy, Spain, Iran and elsewhere, the number has begun to stabilize, if not plateau, in Asian countries.
After an initial cover-up and more than 3,000 deaths, China appears to have brought COVID-19 under control, just as the spread of the coronavirus is accelerating across the U.S. and Europe. With China's domestic-demand driven economy set to rebound and mainland investors avoiding the panic that has smacked western markets, its economy could put a floor under global growth and offer a safe haven to investors.
Virtual finance may far outlast the coronavirus.
Based on China’s experience with COVID-19, the fiscal cost of comprehensive compensation for lost income could reach 10% of annual GDP, and as much as 25% of GDP in the US and Europe if the epidemic turns out to be worse there, which now looks likely. These may seem like mind-boggling sums, but they can be financed in several ways.
The chief investment officer of Citigroup Inc.’s private bank says rich clients are looking for less downside and a levered upside for equities.
Some clients want to free up cash for investment opportunities, others to offset the cost of margin calls after borrowing against stock holdings.
In this remarkable period in our history, we must renew our resolve to the commitment to always do that which is true and noble for all. Together, we can meet this historic challenge.
The current market outlook is bleak. But if the US and Europe take the right steps and follow China’s playbook, we believe the world could ultimately follow the Chinese markets’ road to recovery.
On Thursday, March 12, Loomis Sayles’ Full Discretion team held a conference call to discuss current conditions, upcoming challenges and potential portfolio positioning and solutions. Here, portfolio managers Matt Eagan and Elaine Stokes summarized a few key points.
Falling oil prices can be a double-edged sword in terms of economic impact: welcomed by consumers, but not by producers. Franklin Templeton Emerging Markets Equity’s Bassel Khatoun shares his thoughts on the impact of lower oil prices on emerging market economies and some considerations for investors
The Loomis Sayles Alpha Strategies team shares some insights as markets grapple with three issues: the impact of COVID-19, an oil fight and a crisis of confidence in Western governments.
Stocks have plummeted this month as investors struggled to assess what impact the COVID-19 coronavirus may have on the economy.
Long-term perspective is key as coronavirus and falling oil prices roil markets. Members of the Matthews Asia investment team share their insights and outlook amid volatile markets.
The VIX index has spiked. Over more than twenty years, VIX spikes have been excellent guides to when to put money to work in EM fixed income and equities. Investors have, on average, generated 262bps of excess return in EM fixed income and 234bps of excess return in EM equities by putting money to work during VIX spikes relative to a ‘timing agnostic’ investment strategy.
Our Emerging Markets Equity team examines the impact of the spread of coronavirus across emerging market economies during the month of February.
Can policymakers minimize economic disruptions from COVID-19?
Warren Buffett boosted his stake in Delta Air Lines by 976,000 shares last week, raising his total holdings to 17.9 million shares. This was enough to bring Buffett’s ownership of Delta up to more than 11 percent.
Emerging markets give many investors cold feet. On our latest podcast, EM equity pro Gordon Fraser discusses whether now may be time to warm up to the elusive asset class.
As European Central Bank (ECB) policymakers adjust the budget to reflect lighter eurozone economic activity, moderate economic growth and the United Kingdom’s departure from the European Union (EU), David Zahn, our Head of European Fixed Income, shares his macroeconomic outlook for the region. He weighs in on why the ECB could remain accommodative.
Responsible investing has gathered enough momentum in recent years to reach the mainstream. What is less clear is how far along global institutional investors are in the process of integrating environmental, social and governance (ESG) principles into their investment decisions.
Many questions – and few answers – surround the coronavirus epidemic and its implications for financial markets. Read Howard Marks’s latest memo, in which he shares his own questions, guesses, observations and inferences to help make sense of the potential impact of the virus on global economies and markets.
The spread of the coronavirus has created heightened market volatility in recent weeks, but the Franklin Templeton Multi-Asset Solutions team remains focused on long-term market fundamentals. Here, Ed Perks and Gene Podkaminer offer an update on how they are approaching the situation, and which countries appear more insulated to growth shocks.
We’ve been closely watching developments related to COVID-19 for the past several weeks. While we have hesitated to make significant changes to our outlook until evidence is clearer, we now expect the economic damage done by the outbreak will be more significant than initially thought.
First, this is going to be a long slog. The virus will spread slowly but widely. The containment measures are simply buying time. There’s no need to panic, but we should all take common-sense protective measures. Second, as usual, I am the “Muddle Through guy.”
I've been fielding many questions from investors about the new coronavirus, COVID-19, and would like to share my answers with you in this issue of Sinology.
As China’s leaders scramble to contain the COVID-19 epidemic, the global community braces for impact to China’s people, equity and bond markets, and economy.
Markets around the world are tumbling on fears that the coronavirus could significantly derail global economic growth.
Monday, fear over the Coronavirus finally gripped investors, as both the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the S&P 500 index fell over 3% - the largest daily declines in two years. These drops wiped out all the gains for the year.