Some growth companies could very well outperform the broader market indices, even in a recessionary period.
It’s common for a mutual fund to outperform its benchmark over a short time horizon – a few years – as happened with Cathie Wood’s ARKK. But new research shows that mutual funds fail dismally when performance is measured over the long horizons that retirement-focused investors face.
This Super Bowl will also be remembered, I believe, as a major turning point in sports betting in the U.S. More than 50 million American adults are expected to bet on the game, the most ever and a remarkable 61% increase from last year.
The triumphant comeback of quant-investing strategies on Wall Street is suddenly on shaky ground as virtually all of 2022’s hottest market trends get derailed in the new year.
“Geopolitical recession” doesn’t exist as a defined term. But it should, according to Ian Bremmer. If relations among global powers were framed in economic terms, we would be in the “bust” phase of the business cycle, he said.
Northern Trust Asset Management (NTAM) is a leading global investment manager with $1 trillion in assets under management. It released “The Risk Report” late last year, which is an aggregated analysis of 280 institutional equity portfolios across the globe. The report revealed six common drivers of unintended investment results. As an investment manager that employs a quantitative risk-aware approach, NTAM regularly partners with investors and their consultants to provide them with a distinct analysis of underlying risk components impacting their portfolios’ ability to achieve intended outcomes. Of utmost importance to our Advisor Perspectives listeners and readers, the findings of the research are as applicable to portfolios managed by advisors for individual investors as they are to institutional investors. NTAM does indeed serve individual advisors through a number of offerings, including Northern Mutual Funds, FlexShares ETFs, and Diversified Strategist model portfolios. NTAM’s purpose in conducting the research behind the Risk Report was to help investors make needed adjustments consistent with NTAM’s core philosophy, which is that investors should get paid for the risks they take – in all market environments and in any investment strategy.
Ignoring the Federal Reserve’s determination to keep raising rates and hold them there is a wildly profitable trade on Wall Street right now. It’s trying to swim against the rising market that carries risks.
Cash flows into US sustainable funds plummeted last year as the broader market took a beating and anti-ESG crusaders targeted money managers including BlackRock Inc. for “woke capitalism.”
The most recent NFIB (National Federation Of Independent Business) is sending a strong signal of an economic recession.
ESG proponents sell the idea to investors that they can achieve both altruism and high returns. In the end, they fail at both.
The greatest anomaly is that despite decades of poor performance and the failure to effectively hedge exposure to conventional security classes, assets under management among hedge funds have grown from about $300 billion 25 years ago to about $5 trillion today.
A trading tool like portfolio insurance is poised to trigger a stunning display of market instability.
A plunge in pricing power was one of the most notable developments we found in our latest quarterly survey of our credit analysts, who follow more than two dozen industries.
We are closing in on what we think may be the question of the decade. If a majority of stock market capitalization in the US is passive or indexed, does this cause problems for stock markets?
Over the past couple of decades, I’ve told clients many very important things. Most of them are timeless, which is why I find myself saying the same things repeatedly. Here are the top 10, and I’ve saved my most important for last.
Equal-weighted portfolios have long outperformed cap-weighted funds. Conventional wisdom is that was because of the small-cap factor, but new research shows more is at play.
While tech investors have plenty of issues to worry about as the sector heads into a key week for corporate earnings, one notable headwind from last year has eased in recent months: the dollar.
Since its launch in November, ChatGPT has been a smash hit. To explore the benefits of airline deregulation in the U.S., we sought the help of the AI content generator.
Elon Musk’s response to wavering demand and recession risk is pretty clear: slash prices, keep increasing capacity and try to continue growing even if it means sacrificing profit margin in the short term.
The current debt ceiling debate in Congress is a great reminder that investors should always prepare for the unexpected and invest in companies that are durable enough to withstand a range of economic scenarios.
Yesterday, we got our first look at December’s economic data for Europe, in the form of PMIs.
The first and easiest leg of the bursting of the bubble we called for a year ago is complete.
The Federal Reserve’s quantitative-tightening program risks being propelled toward an early end as US politicians bicker in Washington over raising the national debt limit, according to some economists and bond-market participants.
Paying down student debt or saving for retirement can seem like mutually exclusive goals. A little-known workplace benefit could soon allow more workers to do both.
Making optimistic predictions either makes you look foolish if bad things happen or be forgotten if nothing bad happens.
Advisors can illustrate the risks in single-stock positions by educating their clients on the historical evidence that demonstrates diversification is the prudent strategy.
It’s big news that Envestnet is moving into the RIA custodial space and will soon be competing head-to-head with its biggest integration partners: an expanded Schwab platform, Fidelity and Pershing. I suspect that this is just the first of many so-called software “platforms” that will jump into the custody competition.
Ray Dalio, founder of the world’s largest hedge fund, has one.
The world’s leading CEOs, politicians, and various do-gooders were in Davos, Switzerland, this week, discussing ways to solve our collective problems and create opportunities for their own companies. The most important conversations were off the record and many of the public speeches were simply performance art.
A January survey conducted by Bank of America shows that 91% of money managers believe China will “fully reopen” in 2023. That’s a significant increase from December 2022. Growth expectations for the country are also at a 17-year high.
It’s as close to a sure-thing bet as markets ever offer. When the S&P 500 falls 20% or more, a recession is close behind
Dina Ting, our Head of Global Index Portfolio Management, offers her perspective on the allure of multifactor US mid-capitalization strategies for 2023.
The best start to a year for bond returns is helping fuel an unprecedented debt-sale bonanza by governments and companies around the world of more than half a trillion dollars.
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell is justifiably proud of the central bank’s independence — and refreshingly candid about its boundaries.
European policymakers face a dilemma: continue to hike interest rates to combat inflation or ease off to stimulate growth.
We believe it is important to keep you informed on the latest proposals and regulations impacting the retirement industry, as well as implications to your business.
Nearly seven years have passed since the publication of our 2016 paper “How Can ‘Smart Beta’ Go Horribly Wrong?”
Markets provided investors with a dozen lessons in 2022 (and a bonus one in the postscript).
Throughout this year, Wealthspire Advisors’ Investment Team has spent significant time discussing inflation and the Federal Reserve and felt it was important to pivot towards the story in financial markets for 2022, which begins and ends with fixed income.
At KCR, we believe in the Quantamental Investment approach–a strategy that leverages the most useful aspects of both quantitative investing and fundamental investing.
The question that obsessed financial markets last year was when and where US inflation would peak. The 2023 version will likely be how far, and how fast, it comes down.
VettaFi’s Todd Rosenbluth evaluates Nate’s 2023 ETF predictions. Axel Merk spotlights the Merk Stagflation ETF (STGF) and the VanEck Merk Gold Trust (OUNZ). ETF Think Tank’s Cinthia Murphy offers an inside look at the booming ETF white labeling business.
Relieved to have turned the page on the worst year for stocks in more than a decade, investors are finding that pricey share valuations and shrinking earnings still stand in the way of any swift bounceback for Big Tech.
Countless investment practitioners and academics have unsuccessfully searched for the metric that can successfully identify future mutual fund outperformers. What follows is the saga of the latest failed attempt.
European bond-market performance was among the worst on record in 2022, as Europe ran the gamut of geopolitical, economic and market storms.
Welcome to 2023. It’s Forecast Season on Wall Street, the time when everyone tells us what to expect for the new year. Do they really know? Of course not. Forecasters don’t know, investors know they don’t know, yet we all go through this exercise anyway.
Investors who use a 60/40 portfolio had a rough year. In the past, putting 60% in stocks and 40% in bonds has often helped investors hedge against losses in either asset class. But 2022 had other ideas.
In the rough year ahead, bonds might be one of the only bright spots. It would mark a dramatic turnaround from 2022, when bonds fell alongside almost every other asset class, posting their worst year in a generation.
Over the long-term, the fundamentals of the dollar suggest a downward bias is likely.
In preparation for the new year, let’s look at the importance of celebrating what’s been done and learning from mistakes made.
