LPL Research examines how rising productivity, AI adoption, and structural shifts toward services are supporting U.S. economic growth in 2026.
As geopolitical tensions reshape global trade, capital flows and investor risk appetite, gold is once again surfacing as an important component of asset allocation. Some investors and central banks are arguably viewing gold as a risk hedge, supplanting US Treasuries as a safe-haven asset.
The Federal Reserve is widely expected to halt its interest-rate-cutting cycle this week, as a steadier jobs market restores a degree of consensus at the central bank after months of growing division.
There is always uncertainty about the most likely path forward for the economy and markets — and now is no different. We will continue to watch the headlines and data to see the ultimate impact on the consensus view.
Former Federal Open Market Committee Chairman Alan Greenspan famously observed that forecasting foreign exchange was like flipping a coin. Last year proved him right. What happened, and what lessons can it teach us about the dollar in 2026?
Last week in our latest Cyclical Outlook, “Compounding Opportunity,” we argued that beneath the economy’s broad resilience lies a stark divergence. U.S. policy pivots combined with the surge in adoption of AI technology have created winners and losers.
Concerns over accelerating inflation persisted throughout 2025. However, these anxieties were unwarranted as wage and price increases slowed in response to eight influential factors that also suggest that last year’s disinflation will persist in 2026.
The Fed meets on Wednesday to discuss the direction of monetary policy. With the futures market pricing the odds of “no change in rates” at 97.2%, no one should expect a rate cut at this meeting…or, we think, anytime soon.
Recently, stock market numbness closes the trading day. No wholesale crash, just a little wobbling for now with positive numbers for half of January. But I have a sense it’s in need of a cane to steady its momentum.
Markets, interestingly enough, felt their own version of a “deep freeze” this week. Geopolitical flare-ups, fresh tariff threats and a mini-meltdown in Japan’s bond market briefly rattled investors and pushed volatility sharply higher.
The key point is that nothing in the incoming data since December has undermined the Fed’s prior message. The economy remains strong, jobless claims are hovering near 200,000, and recession fears continue to recede.
Investors selling the dollar to buy emerging-market currencies are off to a lucrative start to 2026, with strategists at top banks expecting such strategies to build further on last year’s 18% rally.
By asking New York traders to confirm the price of the Japanese yen against the dollar on Friday, US authorities handed investors yet another reason to sell the greenback.
It is critical to understand that 2026 will not deliver certainty. Instead, investors should focus and make decisions based on probabilities backed by data, earnings trends, policy shifts, and macro signals.
Today we continue anticipating 2026, this time shifting for the first part of the letter from economic issues to geopolitics before making some of my personal general forecasts.
The Bank of Japan’s recent policy shift is sending shockwaves through global markets. Headlines this week highlight the dollar’s tumble against the yen and renewed chatter of an unwind to the massive yen carry trade, estimated at over $500 billion.
The OBBBA brings 10 tax changes for 2026. Some provisions benefit taxpayers while others impose new restrictions. Our Bill Cass shares the highlights.
Silver has rallied sharply over the past six months, outperforming many major asset classes and even gold. While geopolitical risk, easing monetary conditions, and inflation-related demand have supported precious metals broadly, silver’s move has been especially pronounced—bringing both its drivers and potential constraints into focus.
While our outlook for the municipal bond market in 2026 is positive overall, we have identified five risks that we believe should be on investors' radar.
Long trips rarely end at the airport. We arrive, but our internal clocks lag behind; the first day back is spent acclimating to the new landscape. The global economy enters 2026 in much the same way. Shifting rules of commerce, political stoppages and patchy data have left decision makers disoriented.
LPL Research explores the drivers behind the rally in metals, the associated risks, and the outlook for their durability.
The U.S. economy continues to display a complex mix of resilience and persistence. As markets brace for next week’s FOMC meeting, this snapshot breaks down the latest shifts in GDP, inflation, and consumer behavior.
As we enter 2026, the U.S. economic momentum continues based on the foundation of a solid private sector with fiscal and monetary policies also contributing to growth. As we refine our global asset allocation, we maintain a diversified overweight stance on U.S. equities despite relatively high valuations.
Year-end S&P 500 price targets implicitly assume continuity and fail to recognize volatility and macro forces that affect markets throughout any given year.
Economists have company when it comes to being upbeat. The consensus economic outlook has led to optimism from analysts, who are forecasting strong earnings growth.
Financial stress often shows up in the bond market well before it becomes visible elsewhere. Equity markets can remain calm while pressure quietly builds underneath the surface.
The Trump administration said it’s canceling almost $30 billion of financing from the Energy Department’s green bank after reviewing transactions approved under former President Joe Biden.
Investors were thrown another tariff curveball, with the U.S. administration declaring that unless a deal for the U.S. to acquire Greenland can be reached, a 10% tariff will be imposed on eight European countries (Denmark, Norway, Sweden, France, Germany, the United Kingdom, the Netherlands and Finland) effective Feb. 1.
When investors think about risk in equity portfolios, the usual suspects come to mind: market risk, sector risk or maybe even macroeconomic risk. But lurking beneath the surface is a less obvious, often underestimated threat—style and factor risk.
Looking ahead to 2026, Franklin Templeton Fixed Income Municipal Bond Director Ben Barber says there are a few key factors that will likely shape the municipal bond market.
With 2025 in the books, it will be a difficult year to top for fixed income exchange-traded funds (ETFs), but Morningstar is predicting more excitement to come. That should keep fixed income investors fixated on what new developments the space brings this year.
Our view from the portfolio management desk is that there seems to be a concurrent affordability crisis in the public stock markets as well. The biggest names appear to be “priced for perfection” at this moment.
U.S. fourth-quarter earnings season began with major banks reporting results that were generally stronger than expected. Most large banks beat earnings forecasts, with many also exceeding revenue expectations, reinforcing our view that the U.S. economy remains in a healthy state.
US stocks extended gains on President Donald Trump’s retreat from tariff threats while traders’ appetite for artificial intelligence bets returned.
Trend-following funds are starting 2026 with fresh momentum, outperforming stocks and bonds after a year of false starts.
The key point, in our view, is that this combination of shocks is not likely to be an isolated occurrence in 2026 or beyond.
As the new year begins, one market theme is already attracting plenty of attention, and that is the dispersion and broadening out in the stock market that has occurred during the first two weeks of trading.
US equities reversed early losses during Donald Trump’s speech at the World Economic Forum in Davos when the US president said he didn’t want to use excessive force to acquire Greenland
In the last 10-plus years, investors have grown accustomed to Japanese financial assets lagging their global counterparts.
PJM is the name given to the largest regional US electricity grid, stretching from Chicago to the Chesapeake. It is also synonymous with the AI-power surge, being home to Virginia’s ‘datacenter alley’ and seeing recent big increases in bills tied to concerns that the electricity needs of artificial intelligence will swamp supply.
Seven hundred billion dollars. That’s the figure being floated as the potential price tag for acquiring Greenland, according to recent reporting. Call me skeptical, but I don’t think anyone’s cutting a $700 billion check anytime soon. For comparison’s sake, that’s more than half of the Defense Department’s entire 2024 budget.
Markets pushed to new highs again last week as investors looked past headline inflation noise and focused on improving breadth beneath the surface.
Several dynamics have converged to drive silver higher, including spillover effects from the gold bull market, steady industrial demand, surging investment demand, inflation, and geopolitical uncertainty. However, one factor is the key driver – there isn’t enough metal.
We are in the midst of a tech-led investment boom supporting what some think is a transformational technology. The annualized pace of U.S. productivity growth was 5% in the third quarter of last year, well above the long-term average.
In order to develop prudent spending plans for clients that are consistent with their spending goals, advisors should employ reasonable client-specific LPP assumptions. The three-step process and tools highlighted in this article can help advisors get started.
For advisors breaking away to start their own practice, there’s no avoiding the risks that come with entrepreneurship — but in the current economic climate that includes high inflation, market volatility and heightened uncertainty — advisors need to be doubly prepared when going out on their own.
Interest rates do not exist to punish borrowers. They exist to price risk. When lenders are told they can’t charge more than 10 percent, even when the market risk calls for a higher rate, they don’t suddenly become more generous.
AI productivity gains will demand active solutions, not government gifts. Skill development, apprenticeships, employer-based training, wage insurance, and mobility support. These tools address displacement directly, while UBI does not.
Today, we continue my 2026 economic and market forecast. Last week, I described our current environment as The Bipolar Economy, and noted that the real goal here isn’t to tell you what will happen. It’s to help you know what could happen so you can be prepared.
We expect another generally good year for bond returns this year, but even the best-laid plans can go awry when circumstances change. Here are four risks to our outlook.
