The performance of digital assets in recent months, especially bitcoin, has been testing investor conviction in both the category’s near-term growth potential as well as bitcoin’s standing as a gold-like store of value and a key character in the debasement trade story.
Early last year, the drama around tariffs dominated news headlines, market predictions, and interactions between the U.S. and our allies. Yet for most Americans, daily life went on with little obvious impact on prices for goods. At least not right away.
Since the beginning of the year, we have discussed the “reflation trade” and its impact on specific market sectors. This past weekend’s newsletter also showed some of these more extreme returns in various market sectors since the beginning of the yea
Fourth-quarter earnings results have been generally solid so far, albeit a bit weaker relative to prior quarters when it comes to beat rates and price reactions. On the international front, weakening global ties may lead to economic disruption and lasting investment implications. Meanwhile, bond market volatility has remained low despite economic and policy uncertainty.
Treasuries rose on Tuesday as investors bet on the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates at least twice this year and jitters over global technology shares boosted demand for safer assets.
Volatility was once again the theme in US markets last week as a profound alpha rotation reshapes Wall Street. Investors continued to flee mega-cap tech, software stocks, and anything considered an AI loser, in favor of more cyclical sectors such as energy, materials and industrials.
A weaker dollar, renewed commodity strength, and rising sensitivity around AI valuations are reshaping market leadership. Paul Vella breaks down what’s fueling gold and emerging markets, why SaaS cracks matter, and how disciplined diversification is helping investors navigate policy and earnings uncertainty.
Diversification seeks to help manage risk, smooth portfolio outcomes, and improve the likelihood that clients stay invested and on track toward their long-term goals.
The U.S. economy began 2026 with a display of unexpected resilience in the labor market and cooling inflation.
Despite having little expertise when it comes to the subject of happiness, I’m fascinated by the subject of money and happiness. In this article, I discuss my own failed experience, review research on money and happiness, and offer my hypothesis on investing and happiness.
At their most recent meeting, the Federal Reserve and Chair Powell told us that the risks of weakening labor and higher inflation had declined. It painted a nice picture of a soft landing, but wasn’t a recipe for immediate rate cuts.
The historic election victory in Japan for the ruling Liberal Democratic Party has granted Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi the strongest mandate in the country’s postwar era and raised hopes of a shift toward growth-oriented policy.
While occasional bouts of volatility are likely, we expect the fixed income markets to provide ballast for portfolios and are likely to deliver solid returns in 2026.
Income investors face a promising landscape today. But we think income investing should be more than simply combining the highest yielders in each asset class, which could create unintended risks. In our view, an efficient multi-asset approach can help find the right balance between income, growth and diversification.
Kevin Warsh’s nomination for Fed Chairman initially reassured bond markets by offering a known, crisis-tested Fed veteran with a reputation as an inflation hawk, reducing uncertainty at a critical juncture for monetary policy.
In recent months, the cost of living has consistently polled as the top issue for American voters, with housing affordability standing out as one of the biggest pressure points.
Gold’s stomach churning volatility – up some 30% in less than a month since the start of the year, only to subsequently lose 20% in a matter of days – has, unsurprisingly, left some investors doubting its role as a hedging asset.
As Trump and Powell argue over rates, the Taylor rule uses data to suggest where rates should be. But some argue this is an outdated way to set policy.
The recent decline in cryptocurrency prices has unsettled parts of the market. I talked with Christopher Jensen, Director of Digital Asset Research and a Portfolio Manager in the Digal Asset Investment Strategies group for his views which I share below.
Private assets are gaining traction in many portfolios, as investors seek new frontiers given a more challenging market landscape. Returns of traditional asset classes in the years ahead are likely to be lower on an inflation-adjusted basis, and public markets offer fewer options for diversification today, at a time when managing risk is becoming increasingly important.
The mid-term elections are still more than eight months away, but that hasn’t stopped stories and headlines being posted about possible outcomes and what are perhaps the main drivers come voting day. Without a doubt, the number one issue appears to be the notion of affordability, and of course, what plans do the Republicans and Democrats have in store to address this issue.
As the economy struggled in the wake of the crisis, Warsh was primarily concerned about the risk of inflation—even as unemployment pushed near 10%—and indeed, over the next decade the primary policy concern turned out to be inflation consistently running below target.
LPL Research highlights five reasons emerging markets look attractive in 2026, from dollar weakness to accelerating earnings, and AI-driven growth.
At the start of my career, the Federal Reserve was content to operate in the shadows. Today, by contrast, the Fed is a much more public entity. And so the fact that the derby to become the next Chairman played out so vividly in the media was not surprising.
Weakening global ties may lead to economic disruption and lasting investment implications. Here's what investors should know about navigating the changing landscape.
The market got off to a strong start in 2026, with investors chasing industrials, materials, and commodity-related stocks as the reflation narrative gained traction. The “reflation narrative” is the belief that a range of policies will boost the rate of economic growth in the U.S. without triggering inflation.
A picture is worth a thousand words. What follows, instead of 7,000 words, are seven illustrated examples of what could go wrong with the U.S. stock market or the economy.
Unfortunately, most people still don’t start thinking about their retirement until they are in their forties. Better late than never, but I believe there is a massive missed opportunity here.
US stocks were muted on Tuesday as investors examined the first of several key economic data releases this week in an attempt to find clues on the Federal Reserve’s interest-rate path.
Markets may appear orderly heading into 2026 — but beneath the surface, risk and opportunity are becoming increasingly uneven.
Just eight years ago we were celebrating 25,000, which means equities have doubled in less than a decade. By the Rule of 72, that’s roughly a 9% annual return including dividends—nominal, yes, but still a powerful reminder that equities continue to reward patience even through extraordinary volatility, policy shocks, and repeated predictions of recession.
Equity valuations are top of mind among investors as we move into February, amid stretched sentiment and positioning and challenging corporate earnings expectations.
2025 turned out to be a year for the ages for agency mortgage-backed securities (MBS), as the Bloomberg U.S. MBS Index registered its best calendar year of returns since 2002. The benchmark index’s 8.58% total return outperformed every major fixed income sector other than high yield (+8.62%) in 2025.
This past week, I had the privilege of attending the 2026 Harvard Presidents’ Seminar alongside some of the nation’s top executives and thought leaders. One of the most compelling speakers was Ambassador Kevin Rudd, former prime minister of Australia.
Dollar positives include relatively high U.S. interest rates and robust growth. But dollar negatives are building. The political will for a stronger dollar isn't there and valuations aren't helping.
Whether you follow Japan or not, its situation is incredibly important for investors because it is a major provider of global liquidity. Instead of being overly dramatic about the slim chance of a near-term Japanese crisis, we prefer to focus on how Japan normalizes policy after years of artificially suppressed interest rates and how that process will impact the yen carry trade.
After several years dominated by macro shocks, markets are transitioning into a phase where dispersion, selectivity, and disciplined portfolio construction matter more than broad directional bets.
Markets are efficient after all. This does not mean that prices are always “correct,” just that they generally reflect the available information. When investors learn that software firms’ products may be displaced by AI, their prices fall, as they did last week.
The Federal Reserve System has a critically important role in the economy, but it is designed to act slowly. The modern economy isn’t slow at all. Things change before Fed officials even notice them, much less understand them. That’s why Kevin Warsh’s nomination as Federal Reserve chair is so important.
For nearly two years, markets were driven by the same speculative narrative that “this time is different.” Speculative narratives are not only seductive but also contribute to investment behaviors that obscure reality. Speculation disguised as investing is a losing proposition.
The U.S. labor market showed further signs of cooling last week as private sector hiring slowed and job openings reached their lowest levels in over five years.
Buildout of blockchain-based infrastructure is entering a new phase. The focus in 2025 was on stablecoins and their emergence as the cross-over use case that captured interest from both crypto-native and traditional financial participants.
Barely a month into 2026, markets have already weathered multiple bouts of rolling, event‑driven volatility. Geopolitical surprises and policy pivots have triggered sharp price moves from the U.S. to Japan to Europe, from sovereign bonds to currencies to mortgages.
After more than a decade of U.S. dominance, the tone has shifted, and investors understandably want to know whether this is a brief rebound—or the start of a new leadership cycle. While we do not time markets or make predictions, we believe long-term investors can benefit from maintaining international exposure by understanding the broader structural forces that have historically shaped these cycles.
Monetary policy stayed front and center this week as major central banks kept rates unchanged. What stood out was not the decisions themselves, but how economic momentum is diverging across regions.
Another signal of earnings strength is the ISM Index. Historically, the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) Manufacturing Index has correlated well with S&P 500 earnings growth because earnings are more manufacturing-driven than the more consumer-oriented economy measured by gross domestic product (GDP).
Carrie King, Global CIO of BlackRock Fundamental Equities, offers her perspective on these questions and more as viewed through the lens of an active stock picker.
ETF industry and State Street Investment Management leader Matt Bartolini joined VettaFi's Todd Rosenbluth to talk diversification.
Kevin Warsh began his April 2025 lecture to the International Monetary Fund (IMF) by comparing today’s economic environment in a period of extraordinary consequence, arguing that the greatest risks to prosperity originate not from external forces but from decisions made within leading economic institutions.
Our underlying theme for 2026 is that investors should focus on Process Over Predictions. The instinct of many investors is to chase the "winners" of the previous cycle or expect spectacular growth to continue indefinitely.
