Today I’m going to blend a few thoughts about The Great Reset with some other historical analysis I recently discovered. It adds up to a disturbing outlook, even if (as seems likely, given the latest vaccine news) we’re past the pandemic by late next year. We’ll find different challenges on the other side.
Trading over the holidays? You’ll want to check this list—errr, article—twice.
In calling the current market the third “Real McCoy” bubble of recent decades, Jeremy Grantham described, in his own words, what I call the Iron Law of Valuation: a security is nothing more than a claim on some set of future cash flows that investors expect to be delivered into their hands over time. The higher the price an investor pays today for some amount of cash in the future, the lower the long-term return the investor can expect on that investment.
As expected, the medical news continues to get worse. New infections hit all-time highs last week as the third wave of the pandemic has accelerated around the country. Case growth in many states remains at levels that threaten health care systems.
Investors in exchange-traded funds are clinging to their bets on big tech even as the high-flying sector has lagged behind the broader market over the past week.
America, and the world, received a huge shot of hope this week. The $210 billion drugmaker Pfizer announced on Monday that its coronavirus vaccine is 90% effective at preventing COVID-19.
In an environment where interest rates are low and the risk of higher Treasury yields has risen, Portfolio Managers from Janus Henderson Investors discuss how allocations to AAA rated CLOs may help investors diversify a traditional fixed income portfolio, offering lower volatility, higher credit-quality and less sensitivity to any rise in interest rates.
When you run an equity portfolio which is concentrated in 25-30 common stock selections, there are usually three stocks which stick out as particularly attractive at any given time.
With the economic and market uncertainty brought on by the pandemic, investors, especially those nearing retirement, are looking to protect their savings. They need to guard the wealth that they worked hard to build. That has led to a growing interest in certain types of annuities that provide shelter against market volatility and offer the promise to grow one’s wealth and income.
David Hanzlik is the vice president of annuity and retirement solutions at CUNA Mutual Group, where he brings a relentless energy, passion and focus to developing solutions that help guarantee consumers a brighter financial future through simplicity and accessibility. Trained as an actuary, David leverages a financial discipline and a concern for his clients’ long-term risk. He leads the CUNA’s retirement and annuity product management, including the development of its structured annuity offerings, the fastest growing segment of the annuity industry space in the United States.
Here is a link to the CUNA Mutual web site, where you can find more information about its annuities.
Want to hear something really scary? Inflation, the scourge of the modern economy, may be running much faster than we’re led to believe.
The relative calm we feel in the markets right now isn’t the end of the storm, it is just the eye.
Enjoy Harold Evensky's latest Newsletter.
The primary goal of this article is to explain what makes dividends different. Dividends provide investors with a growing stream of income that is largely independent of market volatility. On balance, dividends are a powerful financial planning tool many retirement models seem to neglect.
Here at U.S. Global Investors, we’re very bullish on commodities, particularly industrial and precious metals.
We could also see a so-called “blue wave,” whereby the Democrats pick up control of not just the White House but also both chambers of Congress.
With the coronavirus largely under control in China, we have an opportunity to consider what the post-COVID investment environment there might look like.
Investor sentiment is telling a mixed story about the market’s ascent since the March low; begging the question, will the skeptics converge with the optimists?
It is a given that you should never mention the “R” word. People immediately assume you mean the end of the world: death, disaster, and destruction. Unfortunately, the Federal Reserve and the Government also believe recessions “are bad.” As such, they have gone to great lengths to avoid them. However, what if “recessions are a good thing,” and we just let them happen?
“Resilience” was this week’s theme as better-than-expected market data came to light. Earnings season has begun, and so far reports have proven the doomsayers wrong. Even industries that have been hardest hit by the economic downturn, including air travel, are expressing optimism that we’re at the “end of the beginning” in terms of recovering from the worst health crisis in 100 years.
In his latest memo, Howard Marks walks readers through the unusual characteristics of this year’s economy; the impact of Covid-related monetary and fiscal policy actions, including low interest rates, on today’s markets; and the possible ramifications of the Fed/Treasury’s rescue efforts. What does it all mean for investors who face an environment marked by some of the lowest prospective returns in history?
There is currently much hope for another fiscal stimulus package to be delivered to the economy from Congress. While President Trump recently doused hopes of a quick passage, there a demand for more stimulus by both parties. While most hope more stimulus will cure the economy’s ills, it will likely disappoint due to the “2nd derivative effect.”
The acquisition of the Boston-based firm by Morgan Stanley checks all the boxes.
If we do not know how to bounce back from failure or hardship, then we may never achieve the success we seek.
If we do a good job of investing in high-quality companies with the potential for strong, long-duration earnings growth, we think starting valuations will matter less in generating attractive long-term performance. When we invest in a company with a high P/E ratio today, we don’t do so with the expectation the ratio will stay high indefinitely.
Rick Rieder and team highlight the critical facts that will drive the markets in the year ahead, as well as the myths that could mislead investors.
Investors should try to avoid getting distracted by the feuding political parties within the U.S. A lot of the infighting is being fueled by outside actors, who thrive on the chaos and the division. Russia’s Putin and China’s Xi Jinping are delighted that we’re so divided right now.
As economies reopen from COVID-19 lockdowns, there have been fundamental shifts to daily life and work, as well as the investment landscape.
It's a new cycle for the economy, but some asset classes look decidedly late cycle in terms of valuation. What might this mean for markets through the remainder of the year?
The first of three presidential debates is set for the evening of September 29. The topics, chosen by the Chris Wallace, the moderator, will be the Trump and Biden records, the Supreme Court, COVID-19, the economy, racial tensions, and election integrity.
We have a huge economic calendar and the first of three scheduled Presidential debates. The employment report will be the last one before the election, so I expect it to get special attention. Most of the other important economic data will also be reported during the week.
The death of Supreme Court Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg ignited a fight over her replacement. The increased animosity in Washington lowered the odds that lawmakers will reach agreement on a further fiscal support package and dampened investor sentiment.
The coronavirus pandemic and the response by governments and central banks have family offices and ultra-wealthy individuals around the world on the defensive.
Three of the best advisory firms teach us about programming with intentionality and purpose.
We have a light economic calendar with important data on home sales, jobless claims, and durable goods orders. None of these is likely to stimulate higher heartbeats. I expect politics and the election to get plenty of attention in the financial media, especially with an open Supreme Court seat as a new issue.
This “exodus,” as some are already calling it, may end up being among the biggest in U.S. history, or at least the biggest since the 1950s and 60s. A record 27.4 percent of homebuyers sought to move out of their metro areas in the second quarter, according to Redfin data.
Advisors need to help retirees and other investors limit downside risk and grow their wealth. We at Sierra share this goal, and in this webinar we will provide perspective on the challenges facing financial advisors. We will discuss how to build a well-diversified fixed income allocation that seeks to deliver the benefits of bonds, while mitigating against rising rates, defaults, bond market illiquidity and stock market volatility. We will also introduce a truly tactical, rules-based investment approach with the goals of limiting downside risk and producing returns that a conservative investor would deem satisfying.
Learning Objectives:
We will review:
Breakout inflation is not our top concern. Europe explores support for national champions, and the U.S. unemployment rate masks some fragility.
Should your clients convert some of their traditional tax-deferred money (e.g. IRA or 401K) to an after-tax Roth account? There are some myths that are just plain wrong. Here are the seven situations to consider when advising on this issue.
My theme today is on the pandemic’s future economic impact, especially in the United States.
Portfolio managers Taizo Ishida and Michael Oh, CFA, explore the growth drivers for Asia's new economy sectors, including how to measure and assign potential future value of intangible assets.
Seven reasons Americans are “nowhere near as alienated from their democratic system” as Germans in the 1920s.
In a low-yield environment, advisors need to use financial planning tools like no-commission annuities to improve after-tax, after-advisory fee bond returns.
Supply is getting tight. Helium is notoriously difficult and expensive to store, for the very good reason that it escapes every known container over time.
You know it’s a bubble when you have to edit the Y axis on all of your charts because valuations have broken above every historical peak, and estimated future market returns have fallen beyond the lowest points in history, including 1929.
My learning goal each year is to read at least 40 business-related, non-fiction books – the “stay at home order" has allowed me to read 63. So here is my eighth annual compilation of the ones I’ve read from September 2019 through August 2020.
We have a big week for economic data with the emphasis on employment. With reports on jobless claims, ADP employment, and the official employment situation report all hitting right before Labor Day, we can be sure it will be a big topic. Throw in the election campaigning and we can expect jobs to be the theme of the week.
We’ll be okay, but we’ll have problems first. Both can be true; the difference is in the timing. It’s important to keep this straight in our minds. Extreme things can happen, for either good or bad, but they don’t last forever. We have to maintain mental balance between the extremes.
Soros’ view on the pattern of bubbles is interesting because it changes the argument from a fundamental view to a technical view. Prices reflect the psychology of the market, creating a feedback loop between the markets and fundamentals.
As ETFs grow in number and complexity, it’s becoming more difficult and time-consuming for advisors to find the right ones. Discover how to build better ETF-based portfolios using a uniquely forward-looking rating system that helps you easily determine the best ETFs for your clients.
Join Marc Chaikin, Founder of Chaikin Analytics and creator of Chaikin Money Flow, as he walks you through cutting-edge technology that helps advisors make better investing decisions, accelerates the research process, enhances client engagement, and frees up time to grow your AUM.
Advisors will learn how to:
After the presentation Mark will be available to answer questions live.
Welcome to the 9th annual review of the Emerging Markets (EM) fixed income asset class. Using new data from the Bank of International Settlements and other sources, we establish that the EM bond market has expanded by 12% in Dollar terms in the past twelve months to a size of USD 29.6trn, or 25% of the global fixed income universe as of the end of 2019.
