The first half of the year has so far been challenging for investors in municipal bonds.
Stock pickers are beating the market in unusually large numbers this year, raising the age-old question about whether their success can be attributed more to luck or skill.
The bear has ended a long hibernation.
Our fiscal deficit, as measured by the debt-to-GDP ratio, has grown to levels that could impede growth, as predicted by financial theory and confirmed by empirical evidence. Moreover, new research shows that our burgeoning deficit could increase risk premiums for both stocks and bonds.
Russia’s blockade of Ukraine’s ports is a “declaration of war” that threatens to trigger mass migration and a global food crisis, a United Nations official said, adding to the dire warnings on the opening day of the World Economic Forum in Davos.
Shiller’s CAPE ratio is the most-cited predictor of long-term equity returns. But new research shows that the “Buffett” indicator does a good job of forecasting, and both ratios predict subdued, long-term returns for stocks.
The U.S. was experiencing some of the highest inflation in its history.
Historical data shows that stock markets have reacted poorly when the Fed has contracted its balance sheet and reduced liquidity – and the effect is more pronounced when Fed actions deviate from what the market expects.
In March of last year, we wrote an article entitled “Timing the End of the Tech and Bitcoin Bubbles”. Our conclusion for Bitcoin was that it was indeed in a bubble but that there was insufficient technical evidence at the time indicating its bursting.
The Northern Trust Economics team shares its outlook for growth, inflation and interest rates.
The Fed is at a crucial junction, according to Lacy Hunt. It has to contain inflation. If not, the stability of the U.S. economy over the longer term is seriously in doubt.
Unless RIAs modify their communications strategies, the failure to address the need for retirement income communications will be felt for years.
I borrowed this letter’s “Soft Now, Hard Later” headline from Dave Rosenberg. It was the title of his leadoff SIC presentation, for reasons I’ll explain.
The U.S. economy contracted 1.4% in the first quarter, leading some investors and analysts to raise the specter of the dreaded “R” word: recession.
The U.S. economy will be in recession in the second half of this year, according to David Rosenberg. Equity Investors should brace for a 30% bear market decline.
In an ambitious new book, the economist Andrew Smithers rejects core “Newtonian” principles of economics, replacing them with radical departures from conventional wisdom. But as I will explain, some of Smithers’ theories fail meet the standard of empirical verification.
Disaster is a strong but appropriate word that applies perfectly to the state of U.S. monetary policy.
On May 29, Colombia could elect its very first leftist president should Gustavo Petro receive a majority of the vote. The former congressman and mayor of the capital city of Bogotá, Petro is an unabashed admirer of and Hugo Chávez.
How bullish are we feeling? If the American Association of Individual Investors’ weekly survey is anything to go by, not very. It has been carried out for decades and is much followed as a measure of sentiment. Retail investors are simply asked if they’re feeling bullish, bearish, or neither.
It’s Easter weekend, so we are going to revisit a 2018 letter about the yield curve. The yield curve is much misunderstood and misused by many analysts. This letter will give you the tools to understand the correct importance and relevance of the yield curve. And then, a few comments about Ukraine.
An unusually strong tug of war between economic forces is playing out in global markets, with a booming economy and low unemployment offset by the effects of the Russian invasion of Ukraine and expanded inflation. Expectations over the timing and magnitude of Fed interest rate increases rapidly evolved as clarity began to emerge around central bank responses to inflation.
ICYMI: In this roundup, we’re highlighting the five most popular pieces of content from the previous week.
Now that inflation is back, it's not going away anytime soon. The Federal Reserve expects it to fall below 3% next year and eventually go back to 2%. But there are reasons to think that’s far too optimistic. We are living in a new world. Even after things get back to normal that could mean inflation averages 4% or even 5% for the foreseeable future.
In my work with clients, one of the most important services I provide, in addition to coaching on finance, estate planning, and investing, is facilitating cross-generational conversations about what it means to have wealth, and especially about what it means to use wealth wisely.
An estimated 30,000 people attended this week’s Bitcoin 2022 conference in Miami, which is rapidly becoming a major global crypto-finance hub.
The Bluetooth logo is a bind rune merging the Younger Futhark runes(Hagall) (ᚼ) and (Bjarkan) (ᛒ), Harald’s initials.
The yield curve is really just a symptom. I like to compare it to a fever—not serious in itself, but a sign you have an infection or some other ailment. An inverted yield curve means something is wrong in our economic body. So today we’ll consider what it means.
The US Federal Reserve is turning increasingly hawkish—hiking rates fast enough to slow inflation while maintaining economic growth will be a monumental task.
The Bloomberg Global Aggregate Index, a benchmark for the bond market worldwide, has tumbled 11% from its peak in January 2021, equating to a drop of $2.6 trillion in the index’s market value.
The war in Ukraine will weigh on the rest of Europe.
In an October 2021 article, we made the case for a new secular commodity bull market and concluded that this environment would likely spill back into the economy and stock market.
We describe how an intentional and sustainable vision for diversity and inclusion at Wealthspire took form.
The Russian invasion of Ukraine overturned a lot of assumptions about the near-term direction of the global economy.
Bonds have started slowly in 2022 due to persistent inflation, a looming Fed tightening cycle, and the Russia/Ukraine conflict. We believe the Osterweis Strategic Income Fund is well-positioned to address these challenges, as its flexible mandate and defensive approach help to protect against rising rates and market volatility.
Recession is here, or will be soon. And unfortunately, it will be a global recession. Like the COVID recession, this one has little to do with the business cycle. It’s a recession of choice—not your choice or mine, but Vladimir Putin’s. He clearly miscalculated how hard capturing Ukraine would be and how the West would react.
When Russian president Vladimir Putin sent troops into Ukraine, he unraveled decades of efforts to cement peace in Europe after the Cold War.
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has ramifications for global inflation and growth, according to Franklin Templeton Fixed Income.
Greedy corporations are not causing inflation.
Russia's actions will have immediate and long-term ramifications.
Given the war in the Ukraine, I thought it would be helpful to provide insights for advisors and investors to think about risk and what if any actions should be considered.
After living through more than two years of COVID-19, its variants, and the attendant supply-chain disruptions and inflation concerns, one thing is clear: Uncertainty is the only certainty.
The 2022 investment year is now well underway and financial advisors and investors would be well advised to not, as the old saying goes, “fight the tape” of what is shaping up to be a difficult year for the stock market.
Economic stagnation arrives as expected as the “Sugar Rush" of liquidity continues to fade from the system.
There have been roughly 100,000 Russian troops on the border of Ukraine for about a year now. This is not a new development. What is Putin's main goal and how is all of this impacting equity markets?
We all love alliteration (hence, Rich’s favorite term to describe the Fed is “lily-livered”) but when it comes to the “Powell Put” or the “Powell Pivot,” we think investors need to understand the facts and intentions of the Federal Reserve before accepting a saying just because it rolls smoothly off the tongue.
No, we did not run out of titles.
It has been a tumultuous start to the year for crypto markets to say the least.
Governments that had propped up Covid-ravaged economies by issuing social bonds are now turning their attention to longer-term climate goals, while companies are keen for increased flexibility when spending proceeds from sales of environmental, social and governance (ESG) debt. That’s crimping the flow of social notes that typically fund specific projects such as job creation or affordable housing.
