US stock futures rose Tuesday as investors buy the dip, signaling confidence in the markets even as Iran war tensions escalate.

Iran-related geopolitical risk has boosted stock volatility, especially in sectors like Energy. Uncertainty remains high and there are a range of scenarios for how this conflict could be resolved and how it might affect economic conditions and markets.

This past weekend, Adam Taggart and I discussed what happens to Treasury bond yields when the United States enters a military conflict. The conventional wisdom is reflexive and tidy.

When geopolitical tensions flare up, the natural assumption is that gold should immediately surge. War breaks out, markets panic… and the metal rallies as investors rush to safety.

Skyrocketing oil prices were accompanied by mixed inflation readings last week. The headline Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation rate held steady in February at 2.4 percent annually, while core CPI, which excludes more volatile food and energy costs, rose a modest 0.22 percent for the month.

The market ended last week with a more cautious tone as rising oil and the widening Middle East conflict bring a fresh layer of uncertainty. I could see the markets experiencing a 10% correction from the recent highs. We are not anticipating a major decline for the S&P 500, but the mood has clearly changed.

The whole world will feel the consequences of this conflict.

Despite less reliance on oil, higher oil prices will add pressure to inflation. If energy costs stay elevated, inflation could rise again, potentially delaying interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve (Fed). Geopolitical uncertainty remains a risk. Conflicts in the Middle East could disrupt supply chains and increase price volatility in key commodities like oil.

In the aftermath of the first Internet stock-market bubble of the late 1990s the economy went into a relatively shallow recession starting in 2001. That recession was precipitated by a tight monetary policy, with the Federal Reserve setting short-term interest rates consistently above the pace of nominal GDP growth (real GDP growth plus inflation).;

With the NCAA tournament beginning in just a few days, we’ve applied the bracket format to our own research. While economic theory often dictates what should be most important to investors, our reader engagement reveals which topics truly commanded investor attention over the past year.

It’s human instinct to want to know what the future holds and to protect and grow our nest egg based on our perceived knowledge of the future. It takes courage to ignore those economic forecasts from brilliant, well-meaning experts with very impressive credentials. Their logic is always compelling, but investing based on that logic can be hazardous to your wealth.

There has been so much data released in the past week it’s hard to know where to begin. Much of the data is inconclusive or not helpful, but it is not as bad as many click-bait pundits suggest as they take each data point and extrapolate it into the future.

The scariest portmanteau in macroeconomics is making a comeback in market discourse: stagflation.

The mood in the stock market by the end of last week was the type of stuff that contrarian investors dream about.

The Fed’s new economic projections are fraught with even more uncertainty. The Middle East conflict is unlikely to derail growth in a meaningful way.

Although the administration has expressed support for a lower federal funds rate, several policy developments since taking office continue to complicate that objective. In particular, recent tariff actions – some of which were legally challenged and later invalidated by the Supreme Court – have contributed to ongoing uncertainty around trade policy.

Market leadership shifted modestly this week, with the performance gap between small cap and large cap stocks narrowing.

A surprise 92k decline in February nonfarm payrolls and a rise in the unemployment rate to 4.4% signal some labor market softening, though stronger ISM manufacturing and services readings and still-low jobless claims suggest the broader U.S. growth backdrop remains intact.

The worsening energy shock from the Iran War has raised risks of a more severe crisis. It may resolve quickly, but the longer it persists, the larger the possible economic damage. Asia and Europe are most vulnerable.

The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) conducts a massive monthly survey of hundreds of Purchasing Managers, which are the executives responsible for buying the raw materials and supplies that keep companies running.

Iran's de facto closing of the Strait of Hormuz precipitated the latest in a series of energy crises. Since the 1970s, some energy spikes were associated with weak stock markets, but some were not.

Volatility in US Treasuries jumped to a nine-month high as the Iran war fanned inflation concerns and upended traders’ expectations on the Federal Reserve’s policy path.

European stocks rose Friday as oil prices slipped below $100 a barrel, following news reports of an Indian tanker’s passage from the Strait of Hormuz, a key shipping artery that’s been effectively shut amid the Iran war.

For the second time in less than a year, the United States is engaged in military conflict in the Middle East. And once again, investors must assess how escalating tensions could affect markets.

A healthy mix of income and growth potential may yield a more effective equity allocation.

Volatility spiked as investors questioned the Federal Reserve's next move, adding to existing concerns about private credit markets. Here's why investors shouldn't overreact.

A key measure of US inflation was tame at the start of the year. But another metric is shaping up to paint a very different picture.

The military conflict in Iran and the Middle East is curtailing the global flow of oil and natural gas. This adds notable pressure to energy prices and the near-term inflation outlook, while also raising questions about countries’ reliance on energy imports and their economic resilience.

North is south, south is west, west is east, east is north, up is down, and down is steady. This week’s employment reports have something for everyone, which is precisely why we should interpret them cautiously.

The size and duration of the oil-price shock are key variables in determining the ultimate impact.

For more than a decade, emerging markets have been a heartbreak for those who place their faith in developing countries. Since 2010, the benchmark MSCI Emerging Markets Index has not outperformed its US counterpart for two consecutive years.

The US and Israel’s war on Iran is forcing world governments to intervene to shore up energy supplies, with ongoing missile fire from both sides disrupting flows through a key waterway.

Adam Hetts and Oliver Blackbourn discuss where they assess the market implications of sustained conflict with Iran, examining energy shocks, inflation pressures, and what prolonged instability could mean for investors.

LPL Research reviews how the Iran conflict is affecting markets, highlighting energy risks, market resilience, and what investors should watch in the weeks ahead.

The “fiat is dying” argument has become a catchphrase narrative among digital asset bulls, gold bugs, and cryptocurrency advocates. That narrative’s core is that central banks have printed vast amounts of money.

If tensions de-escalate soon, there could be relatively little impact on international markets. However, risks will rise if global energy supplies face a prolonged disruption.

On February 27, 2026 the United States and Israel launched a coordinated strike on Iran’s leadership, killing Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and many of the leadership team. Since the initial attack, a torrent of strikes has continued, designed to take out Iran’s ballistic missiles and leadership apparatus.

The Treasury market is stuck between artificial intelligence (AI)-driven job displacement and the ongoing conflict in Iran. Earlier in the year, Treasury yields fell sharply as investors weighed the possibility that accelerated AI adoption could slow economic growth by displacing labor.

Ongoing military actions in the Middle East have increased investor uncertainty. Of course, geopolitical risk has always existed, and this time is no different.

The ongoing conflict involving Iran and the disruption to energy markets has moved beyond headline risk and is now influencing expectations for growth, inflation and policy. As of March 9, oil prices briefly breached the $100 per barrel threshold — a development that shifts the macro conversation compared to last week.

For months, Wall Street’s panoply of risk-hedging strategies did little but lose money. Now, as uncertainty sparked by the war with Iran hits the market’s most popular trades, investors that loaded up on portfolio protection are being rewarded.

Those are a lot of disappointments in a relatively short time. That also left some investors wondering if Treasuries are still the bear-market hedge they are touted to be — which prompted me to ask if they ever were. After digging into the data, I discovered a surprising answer: no.

The European Central Bank can be forgiven for feeling nauseous as a massive global deleveraging of risk since the Iran war started has hit the euro area’s currency and interest-rate markets particularly hard.

We have repeatedly highlighted the delicate balance that the U.S. economy and markets remain suspended in as the Federal Reserve treads a thin line between a softening labor market and stubborn inflation that continues to hover above its 2 percent target.

Markets hate uncertainty, and right now there’s plenty to go around. The outbreak of the U.S.-Iran conflict, following by Iranian retaliation against oil infrastructure across the Persian Gulf, has sent crude prices surging and shipping rates soaring to record levels.

Energy markets drove this week’s market volatility, with the conflict in Iran triggering a sharp rise in oil and natural gas prices. Through Thursday’s close, West Texas Intermediate crude oil was up roughly 17% from last Friday, pushing prices close to $80 per barrel.

About a month ago the financial markets were surprised by a January jobs report that was stronger than expected. The consensus was for a gain of 68,000 private-sector jobs, but the actual came in at a much higher 172,000.

Markets face a complicated mix of signals. The payroll report came in dramatically weaker than expected, several standard deviations below forecasts, and prior months were revised downward. Taken together, the last two months essentially show zero payroll growth.

Doug Drabik discusses fixed income market conditions and offers insight for bond investors.

The opening months of 2026 have been hectic. A partial inventory of major developments during the year to date would include the removal of Venezuela’s leader; a government investigation into the Chairman of the Federal Reserve; tension with Europe over Greenland; and a broad swath of U.S. tariffs stricken down by the Supreme Court. It’s been a lot to digest.