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Sea Change
by John Mauldin of Mauldin Economics,
The final chapter and conclusion pretty much end as you would expect: the demise of monetary policys ability to soothe the soul of the markets and the return of volatility. We hopefully get a full-fledged restructuring of the sovereign debt markets. The Fed and sister central banks will try the same tired tools they have been using. Except they have already been to the zero rate boundary and have wasted the opportunity they had to increase rates so that they could lower them later. Another round of quantitative easing?
High Quality Mid Caps Enjoy Performance Advantage
Since 1965, high-quality midcap stocks have outperformed their low-quality peers by a meaningful margin-a premium that has been most pronounced during periods of market transition. As we approach an inflection point in the current market and economy, investors should consider high-quality mid-cap stocks, which appear poised to thrive.
You Ain't Seen Nothin Yet
Someone recently asked a group of us which band we saw at our first rock concert. My answer was the Canadian band, The Guess Who, in 1975. With hits like No Time, Undun and These Eyes, The Guess Who hit the perfect balance between my 17-year old testosterone driven aggressiveness and my urge to romance the woman of my dreams. The key members of the band in the 1960s and 1970s were Burton Cummings and Randy Bachman.
Warning: Market Correction This Week? Did You See the Opportunity?
While stocks fell around the world this week amid growing concerns over global economic growth, Europes slowdown cant stop emerging market population growth that drives long-term commodity demand. If the short-term market volatility concerns you, a solution is short-term tax-free municipal bonds. Check out the 5 Reasons Why.
Investing is Like a Baseball Season (Not a Football Season)
Rather than try to out-guess the market's trader element, we prefer to act consistent with what our objectives are for each strategy. Avoiding the big loss is a prime part of that. Tracking bounce days when market activity is getting increasingly concerning to us is not. Boring? Yes. Effective at keeping our clients retired? We think so.
You Only Dance Twice
Dancing, or better yet as the beginning of my Investment Outlook suggests, being asked to dance, seems to have become an important part of my life over the past month or so. Having first been asked by my wonderful wife, Sue, and now by Dick Weil and Janus from a business standpoint, I write to you today from my desk in a new Janus office in Newport Beach, California.
Bullish on Gold Priced in Euro Gold Priced in Dollars, Not So Much
by Ade Odunsi of AdvisorShares,
In this weeks discussion we revisit our earlier analysis looking at the relationship between the gold price and real interest rates. Over the last three months the gold price in dollar terms has fallen 9% moving briefly below $1,200 and naturally raising concerns amongst investors that this pull-back may extend as the dollar continues to strengthen against a broad basket of currencies.
Rethinking Core Fixed Income in a Rising-Rate Environment
Michael Hasenstab, chief investment officer, Global Bonds, Franklin Templeton Fixed Income Group, says it is time for fixed income investors to think outside traditional boxes. He believes that with todays market environment and the prospect of rising US interest rates on the horizon, investors need to rethink their core fixed income portfolio. He makes the case for an actively managed, global, unconstrained fixed income strategy.
Tocqueville Gold Strategy Investor Letter
John Hathaway, manager of the Tocqueville Gold Fund (TGLDX), states in his latest quarterly letter on gold that "On a near term basis, this looks and feels like a bottom to us. On a longer term view, we are more bullish than ever." He goes on to write that "Expanding earnings and valuations, the underpinnings of the four year bull market in financial assets, may be approaching an inflection point. A reversal of this cycle would in our opinion restore interest in gold."
Warren Buffett on Buying Businesses
Wed like to ask a self serving and much nuanced question: is your active equity portfolio manager buying businesses for you or are they trying to guess what the stock market will do in the next month or few years? Much like Samuel L. Jackson asks, Whats in your wallet? in television commercials, wed like to ask, Whats in your portfolio?
Letter to a Chinese "Little Emperor": It’s Nice To Be the King, but Not Always Easy
In his latest piece, Francois Sicart, Founder and Chairman of Tocqueville Asset Management, imagines writing to a privileged child of the "new" China, comparing such a child's coming-of-age with his own, in booming post-World War 2 France. He goes on to discuss "the curse of early money," and the pitfall it can cause for friendships and for personal development.
Motivating Advisors to Sell
I am frustrated by one of our advisors. He brought a relatively small amount of business with him (around $25 million) when he joined the first last year and promoted himself as having a number of connections in the community. Since that time, he has not brought in one additional dollar of new assets. How do I motivate him to sell?
Welcome to the World, the Country of Catalonia?
On November 9, the Catalonia region of Spain is due to hold a referendum for independence. This week, we will look at the separatist movement in Catalonia. We will start by giving a brief overview of the regions history and politics, then look at the roots of the independence movement. We will explore the probability of independence, the potential future relationship between the region and the central government, and the role of the EU and the Eurozone. As always, we will conclude with market ramifications.
Nontraded REITs’ Dividends Come With Confusion, Controversy
by Walter Stabell III of Invesco Blog,
Interest rates have been low for quite some time, and investors are searching for ways to generate higher yields. An increasing number of them have turned to non-exchange-traded real estate investment trusts (nontraded REITs). However, nontraded REITs offer high levels of confusion and controversy along with their high yields, and regulators are concerned that these products may not be appropriate for many of the people who invest in them.
Has an Unavoidable Decline in Home Prices Begun?
by Keith Jurow,
In late September, the former head of Goldman Sachs' housing research team sent a lengthy report to President Obama. In it, he predicted that home prices would fall by at least 15% in the next three years. He warned that this could push the country back into a recession. With this blunt warning in mind, let's look at the state of housing markets around the country.
What’s Next from the Bank of Japan
by Jeremy Schwartz of WisdomTree, Inc.,
I had the opportunity to meet with Takeshi Yamada of the Market Intelligence Group at the Bank of Japan (BOJ), and I attended a presentation at the Mizuho conference by Eiji Maeda, the director-general of the Research and Statistics Department.
600 Million Reasons to Keep Your Eyes on India
In the wake of his rock star reception at Madison Square Garden on Sunday, Prime Minister Narendra Modi has emphatically announced to our nation's top corporate and political leaders that India is now open for business. Between September 26 and 30, he met with not only President Barack Obama and other high-profile politicians but also the CEOs of some of our nation's largest and most successful companies.
The Wayback Machine Birthday Tour
by John Mauldin of Mauldin Economics,
Ive been writing this letter for some 15 birthdays now, well over 10,000 pages of collected work. Every word is still at my website a history, if you will, of what I was thinking at the time. I asked my longtime (and long-suffering) editor, Charley Sweet, to go back over this past decade and a half and give us a review of what I was saying my birthday week.
Gold update
by Adam Feik of Take Time For This,
I dont believe rising interest rates are or will be a reason for the dollar to continue to rally (or for gold prices to fall). Right now, investors seem convinced the dollars rally will continue for the foreseeable future. It may; but more likely, the dollar will continue to fluctuate when compared to foreign currencies, as well as when compared to gold. I, for one, will probably view any large declines in gold, silver, oil, gas, and the companies that produce those commodities as an opportunity to buy low. Note, Im not ready to
Metastability?
We remain cheerfully bearish on fixed income and slightly less so on equity markets. The combination of volatility and confusion produces opportunities and since we have had a lot less of the former, we have seen a lot fewer of the latter. Not much of this has changed this year...but things do change-sometimes for reasons we can "see" and sometimes due to factors we can't. We remain utterly convinced that Federal Reserve policy is our greatest known unknown and we remain extraordinarily skeptical that the Great Monetary Experiment will end with a purely beneficial outcome. This quart
Banquos Grain and U.S. Interest Rates
Early in Shakespeares "beth," Lord Banquo asks the prophetic three witches, "If you can look into the seeds of time, and say which grain will grow, and which will not, speak then to me." Banquos turn of phrase reminds us that if a farmer planted the wrong grain he could yield a poor harvest, or worse, he might even starve.
I thought about this recently when asked about the outlook for U.S. interest rates. Investors, like farmers, have a sense of the seasons that guides which grains, or investments, are more likely to yield favorable results. While I have
Vision 1994
by Mark Headley of Matthews Asia,
Twenty years ago, Paul Matthews decided to launch two Asia ex-Japan mutual funds in the U.S. and create what is today the Matthews Asia Funds. One was a core Asia ex-Japan growth fund with a mid-capitalization bias. The other fund was a unique portfolio with a focus on Asian convertible bonds. Thus began the journey of the Matthews Pacific Tiger and the Matthews Asian Growth and Income Funds.
Voya Fixed Income Perspectives September 2014
Change is in the air, and its evident beyond the riot of color overwhelming our natural landscape. Market dynamics, too, are shifting, with the yield on the U.S. two-year Treasury inching higher and the U.S. dollar appreciating. Both not only suggest markets are pricing in a stronger U.S. economy, they are also potential harbingers that the end of zero interest rate policy is near.
PIMCO Cyclical Outlook for the Americas: Recovery Remains Intact, Yet Uneven
U.S. growth can potentially exceed expectations over the cyclical horizon, in part bolstered by a healing consumer and a very accommodative Federal Reserve. While real growth in Canada has been modest in recent years, it increased to 3.1% in the second quarter and we expect that positive momentum to continue this year. In Latin America, we expect growth will pick up for the region as a whole with outperformance by smaller economies like Colombia and Panama.
Six Months of Nothing
Political problems have escalated over the past seven months. Russia has been aggressive and so have extremists in certain Muslim countries. Having said that, financial markets seem to care about nothing but QE. Despite a growing disconnect in some markets between equity valuations and economic fundamentals, we expect the low interest rate environment to carry the equity bull market for a little longer, but eventually it will end in tears.
Economic Atonement
by Peter Schiff of Euro Pacific Capital,
This Friday is Yom Kippur, the day when Jews around the world ask forgiveness for their transgressions from the year past. Rabbis remind the penitent to dwell on their sins of omission, in which they did nothing when a more thoughtful and proactive action was needed, and sins of commission, in which they actively participated in an unjust action. And while not all economists are Jewish, Gene Epstein the economics editor at Barron's, offered his thoughts on how this applies to the group.
Looking Past the Risks, Equities Still Appear Attractive
Last week featured some positive economic news, but equity markets sank nonetheless, with the S&P 500 Index falling 1.3%. On the bright side, we saw some strong data from the housing market and an upward revision to second-quarter gross domestic product growth (GDP).
5 Reasons Why Short-Term Municipal Bonds Make Sense Now
Although short-term bonds might not be as sexy as common stocks in fashionable brands like Apple and Tesla, they play an important role in any serious investor's portfolio. Below are five reasons why investing in municipal bonds makes sense now more than ever.
Clear Sailingor Choppy Seas?
We are at a tenuous point in the market seasonally speaking and a pullback is quite possible. We dont recommend trying to time a potential correction, however, as that is virtually impossible and exposes investors to missed upside opportunities waiting on the sidelines. Elsewhere, the international picture looks a little shaky, but diversification is important and we do favor emerging markets within an international portfolio.
When it Comes to Interest Rates, Who Says What Comes Down Must Go Up?
by Zachary Karabell of Envestnet,
We are, at long last, nearing the end of one of the great central banking experiments: the U.S. Federal Reserves policy of quantitative easing, which began in the wake of the financial crisis of 2008-2009. While the unwinding of the monthly purchases of billions of dollars of mortgage-backed securities and other bonds has been going on for many months, markets are now increasingly attuned to what comes next. And the primary question is quite simple: will interest rates rise and if so, by how much and when?
Global Equities Stay Thirsty for Liquidity
by Rick Golod of Invesco Blog,
Taking a step back from the usual economic and market insights, my September commentary is devoted to a topic that Ive been long overdue in addressing. Financial advisors have frequently asked about my approach to asset allocation, and Ive outlined my strategy for diversifying within the US equity space in my commentary, Harnessing the Markets Natural Rotation: An Asset Allocation Strategy. Here, Id like to provide a summary of my outlook, which remains unchanged from the previous month.
Awakening Japan Inc.
by Yu Zhang of Matthews Asia,
Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe's first two "arrows" of his expansionary fiscal policies have done well to curb deflation. Now, investors are concerned about Japan's so called "third arrow"the country's growth strategy. Can credible structural reform be implemented to remove impediments to its growth?
Europe’s Commercial Real Estate Deleveraging: ‘Not Too Fast, Not Too Slow’?
by Tareck Safi, Tom Collier of PIMCO,
As European bank deleveraging accelerates, we expect that commercial real estate (CRE) will continue to constitute a significant proportion of bank assets to be sold, albeit with a shifting geographical mix. We believe CRE opportunities remain in the form of single assets and complex structured transactions in particular; but a disciplined approach will be key given competition in specific types of assets and in certain jurisdictions. This will require flexible capital, local investment expertise and hands-on asset management, in addition to strategic sourcing capabilities.
Fed Forecasts Sub-3% Economy for the Next Three Years
The Feds policy committee announced last Wednesday that it will end its massive QE bond buying program at the end of next month, thus paving the way for the first Fed funds rate increase sometime next year. This was not a surprise. The Feds gargantuan balance sheet will peak near $4.5 trillion in Treasury and mortgage-backed bonds at the end of October.
Buffetts Passive Can of Worms
A great deal of confusion exists today about the merits of passive investing as compared to well-researched active management. An added layer of confusion arose in March when Warren Buffett explained that 90% of his widows money would be invested in a low-cost S&P 500 index fund. If this summer was a football game, 15-yard personal foul penalties would be thrown everywhere as experts piled on top of that announcement.
Back to Iraq
President Obama has decided to build a coalition to dislodge the Islamic State (IS). The U.S. is leading the coalition, but American efforts will be limited to air power. In this report, we will offer a short synopsis of the war plan. This analysis will be followed by a broader discussion of U.S. Middle East strategy, including a history of American policy. We will move to discuss the most likely outcome from these efforts and conclude, as always, with market ramifications.
A Lack of Surprises Helps Equity Markets Make Gains
Equity markets rose again last week, with the S&P 500 Index climbing 1.3% and reaching another record high. Bond yields and the U.S. dollar drifted higher, while emerging market equities and commodities struggled. Two major events that resulted in a continuation of the status quo helped market sentiment.
Alternative Approaches for Managing Emerging Market Equity Portfolios
The shortcomings of indexing are especially evident in frontier markets, where some very small markets have significant weights. This paper discusses three approaches for targeting inefficiencies in emerging markets. These approaches are designed to fit together and complement each other within an investment portfolio. Overlap is generally minimal, so investors may reasonably employ all three.
Results 8,451–8,500
of 10,168 found.
