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3 Things Worth Thinking About, Including the Odds of a Suckers Rally
by Lance Roberts of Streettalk Live,
Each week in my weekly newsletter I do a complete overview on major markets, sectors and other market areas such as interest rates, gold and oil. I bring this up because the recent melt-down in oil and energy related stocks is something that I warned about in early August of this year.
Recession Probability Models - November 2014
by Ted Kavadas of StratX, LLC,
There are a variety of economic models that are supposed to predict the probabilities of recession. While I dont agree with the methodologies employed or probabilities of impending economic weakness as depicted by the following two models, I think the results of these models should be monitored.
Snail Trail Vortex
The world is undergoing a radical shift towards lower economic growth at the moment. Some of the dynamics driving growth down are structural in nature (e.g. demographics), and even the most extreme monetary or fiscal policy will not change that. We are in for a period of lower, but still positive, global growth whether we like it or not. Despite the somewhat muted outlook, we continue to expect significant regional variations in growth and therefore also in interest rates and equity returns.
The Macro Playbook
The Hedgeye Macro Playbook aspires to present investors with the robust quantitative signals, well-researched investment themes and actionable ETF recommendations required to dynamically allocate assets and front-run regime changes across global financial markets. The securities highlighted above represent our top ten investment recommendations based on our active macro themes, which themselves stem from our proprietary four-quadrant Growth/Inflation/Policy (GIP) framework.
Income Inequality and Fed Policy
by Scott Brown of Raymond James,
Income inequality has been an important topic this year, but it is one that is mired in politics. That means it is a potentially treacherous debate for the Federal Reserve chair to wade into. To be fair, Yellen said that the purpose of her recent talk on income inequality and opportunity was not to provide answers to these contentious questions, but rather to provide a factual basis for further discussion. She provided a mountain of evidence from the Feds triennial Survey of Consumer Finances, and then got out of the way, as appropriate.
The Secret Words Clients Love to Hear
We have many clients who are really wired. They know a lot of wealthy people and many sit on boards and are trustees. Given the level of service we offer, I would expect our clients to proactively introduce us to these folks. Instead, every meeting we ask them for a referral and nothing comes of it. Does this mean we don't have the great relationships we think we have?
Investing by Duration
by Heather Rupp of AdvisorShares,
It was hard to ignore the call in the fixed income space for short duration investing over the last couple years. Duration is a measure of interest rate sensitivity (the percentage change in the price of a bond for a 100 basis point move in rates), so the lower the duration the theoretically less sensitive those bonds are to interest rate movements.
Quarterly Review and Outlook
The U.S. economy continues to lose momentum despite the Federal Reserves use of conventional techniques and numerous experimental measures to spur growth. In the first half of the year, real GDP grew at only a 1.2% annual rate while real per capita GDP increased by a minimal 0.3% annual rate. Such increases are insufficient to raise the standard of living, which, as measured by real median household income, stands at the same level as it did seventeen years ago
Equities: Is the Bull Market Under a Threat?
Equity markets have experienced a setback recently and this has led many strategists to question the longer term case for the asset class. However, we remain positive on shares and believe that equities can still generate an attractive premium for investors.
Despite Volatility, This Bull Is Likely to Charge Higher
As the fourth quarter begins, the market has found itself engulfed in anxiety. Volatility has surged in the equity markets while the 10-year Treasury yield has dropped to 2%-leading some to question whether this bull market is breathing its last breath. We believe: * Global GDP growth will likely be in the 2.0%-3.0% range. * The U.S. is in the 5th or 6th inning of recovery, with slow but improving growth. * Despite the surge in volatility, this bull market has more room to run. * A balance of secular and cyclical growth companies presents the most attractive portfolio for this mid-cycle phase.
Getting Your Boss to Understand You
My boss does not understand me. Every time he asks me to do something, he criticizes my work. Everything I submit is "wrong" and needs to be redone. I'm pulling my hair out (and I didn't have much to start with). How do I get him to see what I am doing in a positive light?
How to Compete with Online Advice: The Historical Lessons
by Dan Richards,
Online start-ups offering low-cost investment advice have received lots of attention, not to mention over $200 million dollars in venture capital. What lessons does history offer on the likely impact of online advice? And based on what's happened in the past, how can advisors respond to this new threat?
The Price We Will Pay for Cheap Oil
by Richard Vodra,
Suddenly in June, oil prices started dropping, reaching levels unseen since 2010. What is going on? Why does the price of oil matter to financial advisors? What might these fluctuations mean to the price and supply of oil for the rest of the decade? Isn't oil just another commodity?
A Treasury Market Disconnect
As the US economy continues to show signs of strength and the US Federal Reserve (Fed) continues to wind down its quantitative easing (QE) program, one would think the US Treasury markets would start reflecting a potential rise in inflation, and the eventuality of Fed monetary policy tightening. However, there has been a bit of disconnect in terms of behavior on the long end of the Treasury yield curve.
A Moody Market
For those that may not have noticed, stock market volatility has been on the rise in October, with more up and down 1-2% days and powerful intraday moves than we've seen since the Great Recession. Weak overseas economies, fears over what rapid declines in energy prices could mean, and Ebola are just a few of the factors that have been used to explain the disappointing action.
5 Things To Ponder: "Buy" or "Run"
This past week investors to a blow from a sharp selloff in the financial markets. I have spilled quite a bit of ink in recent months discussing the probabilities of such as corrective event as the Federal Reserves current liquidity operation came to a conclusion this month.
Being Intelligent About Smart Beta
by Chris Richey of Neosho Capital,
Given the history of miracle cures, magic potions, sure things, and cant misses, you will forgive our skepticism as Smart Beta entered the financial lexicon over the past 3 years. Things promising to be smart often look very dumb in retrospect. But we were intrigued, if only because humility and competition demand an open mind.
Optimizing a Portfolio Allocation to Gold
by Ade Odunsi of AdvisorShares,
Gold continues to be an attractive asset class that many investors wish to hold in their portfolios primarily for its diversification benefits and defensive characteristics during periods of high risk aversion in global markets. And notably many investors gain their gold exposure via exchange traded products given the ease of access, liquidity and the transparency they offer, particularly to retail investors who historically faced numerous barriers to holding gold in their portfolios.
Is Smart Beta Smart Enough?
As smart as smart beta might be, it is not smart enough to answer the most important question in beta management. The key to successful beta management, regardless of whether the beta is smart or dumb, depends primarily on the choice and timing of beta. A strategy that focuses on smart beta without consideration for full beta management seems very likely to underperform.
Bill Sharpe on Retirement Planning
by Robert Huebscher,
Bill Sharpe discusses topics at the forefront of financial-planning research: The role of annuities in a retirement portfolio, the proper glidepath for target-date funds, if investors should anticipate mean reversion in market returns and whether ESG- and SRI-oriented portfolios make sense.
Finally, a Five Handle!
by Brian Andrew of Cleary Gull,
Last Fridays jobs report was significant in that for the first time since July of 2008 the unemployment rate dipped below 6%. The September report indicated that the unemployment rate fell from 6.1% to 5.9%. While we have seen improvement in labor markets for some time now, the Fed still seems to want to take their time reducing stimulative policy.
Weighing the Week Ahead: Can Corporate Earnings Reports Reverse the Stock Market Decline?
Last week featured a low signal to noise ratio speech after speech, but little fresh information. This week heralds the start of earnings season. While we have a normal measure of government data, market participants will carefully parse the announcements and conference calls. This week will be all about earnings.
Warning: Market Correction This Week? Did You See the Opportunity?
While stocks fell around the world this week amid growing concerns over global economic growth, Europes slowdown cant stop emerging market population growth that drives long-term commodity demand. If the short-term market volatility concerns you, a solution is short-term tax-free municipal bonds. Check out the 5 Reasons Why.
Investing is Like a Baseball Season (Not a Football Season)
Rather than try to out-guess the market's trader element, we prefer to act consistent with what our objectives are for each strategy. Avoiding the big loss is a prime part of that. Tracking bounce days when market activity is getting increasingly concerning to us is not. Boring? Yes. Effective at keeping our clients retired? We think so.
Practical Policy Prescriptions to Help Offset Geopolitical Uncertainties
by Scott Mather, Greg Sharenow of PIMCO,
We believe Europe should relax fiscal budget constraints to allow for fiscal stimulus to offset any economic drag, while maintaining extremely accommodative monetary policy. The U.S. and its relatively newfound energy renaissance can also play an important role in supporting Europe and the global economy by signaling its intention to compete for energy market share.
Japan Strategist Roundtable: Jesper KollWhat Is Different This Time?
by Jeremy Schwartz of WisdomTree, Inc.,
When I spoke with Jesper Koll from J.P. Morgan Securities, one particular theme appeared in our conversation: Prime minister Shinzo Abe is an important catalystbut not necessarily the primary factorfor what is different this time in Japan.
Why Do Investors Really Underperform Over Time?
by Lance Roberts of Streettalk Live,
There have been numerous articles written as of late that have chastised individuals for "missing out on the bull market" which was only slightly worse than "not beating it." The reasons were chalked up to bad investment advice and paying "too much" in fees which caused the underperformance. While both of those reasons may be contributors to the problem, they are in reality on very small components of the problem when compared to the three single largest contributors to investor underperformance over time.
The Statistical Recovery Continues
by Lance Roberts of Streettalk Live,
This past Friday, investors awoke to news that, according to the U.S. Labor Department, employers added 248,000 jobs last month. In addition, job numbers for previous months were revised upward, and the jobless rate fell to 5.9% from August's 6.1%. These numbers had the mainstream media cheering that "economic victory" was nigh and stocks were propelled upward.
Weighing the Week Ahead: Will global weakness drag down the US economy?
Last week was all about data. This week will be the opposite. The calendar already dished up the big news, and the major earnings reports are still a week away. Meanwhile, we have more conferences and speeches than I can remember seeing for many months. For those of us who think of data as the signal and politicians and pundits as noise, we must get ready for a low ratio! This week will emphasize commentary rather than data, with world leaders, Fed types, and pundits all joining in.
600 Million Reasons to Keep Your Eyes on India
In the wake of his rock star reception at Madison Square Garden on Sunday, Prime Minister Narendra Modi has emphatically announced to our nation's top corporate and political leaders that India is now open for business. Between September 26 and 30, he met with not only President Barack Obama and other high-profile politicians but also the CEOs of some of our nation's largest and most successful companies.
The Wayback Machine Birthday Tour
by John Mauldin of Mauldin Economics,
Ive been writing this letter for some 15 birthdays now, well over 10,000 pages of collected work. Every word is still at my website a history, if you will, of what I was thinking at the time. I asked my longtime (and long-suffering) editor, Charley Sweet, to go back over this past decade and a half and give us a review of what I was saying my birthday week.
Gold update
by Adam Feik of Take Time For This,
I dont believe rising interest rates are or will be a reason for the dollar to continue to rally (or for gold prices to fall). Right now, investors seem convinced the dollars rally will continue for the foreseeable future. It may; but more likely, the dollar will continue to fluctuate when compared to foreign currencies, as well as when compared to gold. I, for one, will probably view any large declines in gold, silver, oil, gas, and the companies that produce those commodities as an opportunity to buy low. Note, Im not ready to
Metastability?
We remain cheerfully bearish on fixed income and slightly less so on equity markets. The combination of volatility and confusion produces opportunities and since we have had a lot less of the former, we have seen a lot fewer of the latter. Not much of this has changed this year...but things do change-sometimes for reasons we can "see" and sometimes due to factors we can't. We remain utterly convinced that Federal Reserve policy is our greatest known unknown and we remain extraordinarily skeptical that the Great Monetary Experiment will end with a purely beneficial outcome. This quart
Banquos Grain and U.S. Interest Rates
Early in Shakespeares "beth," Lord Banquo asks the prophetic three witches, "If you can look into the seeds of time, and say which grain will grow, and which will not, speak then to me." Banquos turn of phrase reminds us that if a farmer planted the wrong grain he could yield a poor harvest, or worse, he might even starve.
I thought about this recently when asked about the outlook for U.S. interest rates. Investors, like farmers, have a sense of the seasons that guides which grains, or investments, are more likely to yield favorable results. While I have
Results 5,501–5,550
of 6,535 found.
