Hedgeye Risk Management

Say I was constructively dissatisfied with how last week went for Global Macro markets. Constructive because I think we made the right research pivot on Dollar Down, Commodities Up. Dissatisfied because devaluing the Dollar isn’t the answer for America’s stagnating economy.

In markets, the momentum mob constantly cares about one thing – #charts. Lots and lots and lots of charts. The linear moving average ones are the simplest to scare you with.

What an excellent start to 2015! It?s been years since I?ve seen so many great long and short ideas across the Global Macro universe. If your portfolio mandate is diversified and flexible (across asset classes), I think you can have a crusher of a year!

Do Global Macro Themes propagate themselves into consensus narratives? You bet your Madoff they do. But timing them matters. You really get paid by front-running them by 3-6 months.

While I can try to explain why the SP500 can drop 103 points in a straight line (in 7 days), then ramp 106 points in 4 days, I dont think thats where I add value. There are legions of pundits on the #OldWall that use 1-factor moving averages than can help you with that.

Obviously times, technologies, and mostly everything other than the Old Wall have changed. But the very basic difference between what Ill call good vs. bad #deflation has not.

For those of you who didnt know that Cockburn was a British journalist and proponent of communism , now you know. His aforementioned quote was cited by Jim Rickards at the beginning of an excellent chapter titled Prophesy in The Death of Money.

The Hedgeye Macro Playbook aspires to present investors with the robust quantitative signals, well-researched investment themes and actionable ETF recommendations required to dynamically allocate assets and front-run regime changes across global financial markets. The securities highlighted above represent our top ten investment recommendations based on our active macro themes, which themselves stem from our proprietary four-quadrant Growth/Inflation/Policy (GIP) framework.

With this [soon-to-be-revised-down, pre-election Q3 GDP print], the U.S. economy is squarely in #Quad4 and should remain there throughout Q4