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Emerging Markets of Tomorrow
by Jeremy Schwartz of WisdomTree, Inc.,
This week Professor Siegel and Jeremy Schwartz chatted with Gavin Serkin, Emerging Markets (EM) Editor at Bloomberg News. They also spoke to Worth Wray, Chief Strategist at Mauldin Economics, whose current focus is also on EM and the implications of a stronger U.S. dollar.
Stock Market Returns - The GDP Growth Rate Myth
The idea that nominal equity market returns approximate the country's GDP growth rate is historically uninformed and intellectually dishonest. If there were any merit to the idea that equity market returns should approximate GDP growth rate, we would see this in a tight relationship between the two variables across countries. But we don't.
Not-So-Great Expectations: Why Real Interest Rates Won’t Soar
In a recent piece from Research Affiliates, Shane Shepherd, Senior Vice President, Head of Macro Research, looks at the consensus on interest rates: they are set to fly. But if, as Research Affiliates expects, savings accelerate and real GDP grows slowly, then interest rates won’t rise very much anytime soon.
New Research: Reverse Mortgages, SPIAs and Retirement Income
by Joe Tomlinson,
Retirees need longevity protection and additional funds. Annuities and reverse mortgages can meet those needs. While annuities have been researched extensively, reverse mortgages haven't received as much attention. We need research on how to fit these two products together in overall retirement plans. I'll launch that effort here.
Slip Sliding Sideways
Volatility will likely continue and more sideways action could be in store for the US equity market. We believe US economic data will start to rebound, helping push stocks higher in the second half of the year. The Fed remains in focus, but a rate hike is not likely until the latter half of 2015, which has helped slow the dollar’s upward momentum; potentially comforting the market and letting businesses better react. Better near-term opportunities may exist overseas as the Eurozone economy is improving and Japan seems poised to rebound from soft data.
Words with Friends
by John Canally of LPL Financial,
Words matter. As investors brace for the unofficial start of the S&P 500 earnings reporting season for first quarter 2015 (see this week’s Weekly Market Commentary, “Earnings Recession?” April 6, 2015, for details), the financial media is swirling with words and phrases like “rig count,” “strong dollar,” “port strike,” and even “bad weather.”
The Dollar and the Fed: A Love-Hate Relationship
by Rick Harrell of Loomis, Sayles & Co.,
The US job market continues to plow ahead, leading many to believe Fed rate hikes are coming later this year. However, the pace of hikes may be slower than expected. The Fed is facing a “dollar dilemma” as it evaluates US economic outperformance.
The PMC Spotlight: Quantitative Portfolios: Factor-Enhanced Series
by Envestnet,
In this video, Brandon Thomas, Chief Investment Officer, underscores the unique features of the Quantitative Portfolios: Factor-Enhanced Series. In addition, Mr. Thomas provides background on the financial research supporting value and momentum factor style investing.
The 'Perfect Storm'
This month's Absolute Return Letter is about the highly unusual set of circumstances which have underpinned the equity bull market of the last 35 years. Not one of the factors we identify did exceptionally well - they all did and, between them, they created the perfect breeding ground for exceptional equity performance. So far so good.
Unfortunately a reality check is required as it is exceedingly unlikely that those circumstances will be repeated in our lifetime. We should prepare for more modest returns ahead.
Recession Probability Models - April 2015
by Ted Kavadas of StratX, LLC,
There are a variety of economic models that are supposed to predict the probabilities of recession. While I don’t agree with the methodologies employed or probabilities of impending economic weakness as depicted by the following two models, I think the results of these models should be monitored.
An In-Depth Look at the MFS Value Fund
by Larry Swedroe,
As I continue with my series analyzing the performance of some of the most successful actively managed mutual funds, it's important to acknowledge that I possess the benefit of hindsight; I am selecting funds I know have done well in the past. The question I seek to answer is whether investors should expect that outperformance to continue. With that in mind, today we'll take an in-depth look at the MFS Value Fund (MEIAX).
How to Profit When Rates Rise: Negative Duration Bond Strategies
by Bradley Krom of WisdomTree, Inc.,
As the debate rages surrounding the timing of the first Federal Reserve (Fed) rate hike, we continue to discuss the potential tradeoffs surrounding this inevitable shift in policy. While some investors may be content to ride out the waning bull market in bonds, others may seek to position more tactically.
Weighing the Week Ahead: Correction Looming?
After a week loaded with economic data there are plenty of fresh economic worries. In addition, the Fed seems ready to act in spite of some weak data. This means that good news is (finally) good news, and bad news will be bad. For economic and market skeptics, it signals a market shift that they see as long overdue.
Weighing the Week Ahead: Correction Looming?
No one has a good, verifiable, real-time track record at predicting small corrections. Meanwhile, many investors get sidelined because they read an article or saw a chart suggesting that “the big one” was right ahead. Some people have been waiting for years for the correction so that they can get back in the stock market. Even when the correction finally comes they will be losers – and that assumes the ability to pull the trigger when things look bad!
Central Bank Dominance
The policies of the central banks are theoretically aligned in that they all have the objective of managing private economies with modern monetary macroeconomic principles. But, all four major economies are in different stages of recovery and disruptions are nearly inevitable. However, a positive view is that central banks are all focused on managing growth and that significant investment opportunities may be available for thoughtful investors and managers.
ECRI Recession Watch: Weekly Update
Friday's release of the publicly available data from the Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI) puts its Weekly Leading Index (WLI) at 132.6, up slightly from 131.5 the previous week. The WLI annualized growth indicator (WLIg) is at -2.5, up from the previous week's -3.3 and off its interim low of -4.9 in mid-January.
Market's March Madness
by Burt White of LPL Financial,
With the NCAA Final Four set, we share our own Final Four for stock market investing: economy, earnings, technicals, and valuations. With valuations above average and the economy slowing during first quarter of 2015, our championship game comes down to earnings and technicals. Based on our assessment of these four factors, we expect stock market investors will be “cutting down the nets” due to potential mid- to-high-single-digit stock market gains in 2015.
The Coming Chinese Crackup?
by Andy Rothman of Matthews Asia,
Prominent China scholar David Shambaugh has turned bearish on the Middle Kingdom, which offers us the chance to review our own thinking about China’s prospects. As head of the China Policy Program at The George Washington University, Shambaugh is a respected analyst of Chinese Communist Party affairs, so his WSJ op-ed, “The Coming Chinese Crackup,” has received much attention. This issue of Sinology explores how Shambaugh’s view now is an about face from his prior analyses, and why his current arguments may be flawed.
Recessionary Level in Credit Conditions
The Credit Managers Index deteriorated significantly over the last two months and current readings stand at the recessionary levels not seen since 2008. There is a very serious financial stress in the amount of credit extended to the businesses and the amount of credit applications rejected. The speed of deterioration is shocking.
Duration: To Hedge or Not to Hedge?
Because duration tends to be an important component of the return profile in a bond portfolio, adjusting exposure rather than hedging it away may make sense for many investors. Low duration strategies may provide a level of interest-rate duration that provides a better trade-off between a full market beta (with interest-rate duration) and a fully duration-hedged beta.
Exploring Four Myths
by Byron Wien of Blackstone,
In talking with investors, I find four concepts prevail among the consensus that I believe may be wrong. In the interest of full disclosure, it is fair to say that at various points in time I have subscribed to each of these ideas. They are: 1. American Exceptionalism is a thing of the past. 2. The price of oil is likely to stay low for a long time. 3. Europe’s economy is in a slow growth deflationary trap. 4. Abenomics is not working, and Japan is in danger of falling back into a recession. I decided to explore each of these
Corporate Bonds Offer Opportunities in the Slowing Economy
Lack of corporate leveraging and investment among Australian companies may provide a macro headwind to economic growth and, hence, future prospects for equity investors, but from a creditor's perspective, this should keep credit metrics relatively healthy.
PIMCO's bottom-up analysis has helped identify several opportunities, even within the resources sector, where strong balance sheets, competitive industry positions and sound management build a compelling case for credit investors despite the challenging period ahead.
China’s New Normal and America’s Old Habits
by Stephen Roach of Project Syndicate,
China is generating a lot of confusion nowadays, both at home, where officials now tout the economy’s “new normal” but are unclear about what it is, and abroad, where the US is embracing “containment” of China’s rise. On both counts, the disconnects are striking, adding a new dimension of risk to a fragile world.
ECRI Recession Watch: Weekly Update
Friday's release of the publicly available data from the Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI) puts its Weekly Leading Index (WLI) at 131.6, up slightly from 131.2 the previous week. The WLI annualized growth indicator (WLIg) is at -3.2, up from the previous week's -3.6 and off its interim low of -4.9 in mid-January.
Deglobalization Redraws the Investment Map
Divergence between economies and financial markets has been a key macroeconomic trend over the last few years, and reflects in part the deglobalization of the worldwide supply chain. We expect the big winners to be countries and regions with large internal markets; the losers will be smaller countries which have yet to move up the export value chain.
Global Asset Allocation Shifts
A couple of days ago BIS (Bank of International Settlements) released a seminal research piece “Global Asset Allocation Shifts” in which authors explain that weekly institutional and retail portfolio reallocations (not just fund flows) of U.S. investors are 90% driven by two factors easily identified as Yen (Risk On/Off) and Dollar factors hence reaffirming our Global Macro Framework. They also explore systematic predictability of these factors in great details.
The New World Order: Part II
In the second installment of our four-part series we focus on two themes. First, we examine the global public goods the superpower provides, and second, we analyze how the U.S. has done so. The global hegemon often faces tensions between the desires of domestic constituencies and its foreign obligations. Every superpower negotiates these pressures and each tends to have its own ways of meeting both objectives. However, no superpower can subjugate the goals and aspirations of its citizens indefinitely. If the cost of hegemony becomes too high, a nation may be unable to maintain the position.
An In-Depth Look at Fidelity's Contrafund
by Larry Swedroe,
Fidelity's largest actively managed fund is the Contrafund (FCNTX). It's also among Fidelity's top performers, making it their flagship fund, a status previously accorded to the Magellan Fund under Peter Lynch. Will Contrafund investors continue to enjoy outperformance or will they face flagging returns like Magellan's investors did following Lynch's departure?
ECRI Recession Watch: Weekly Update
Today's new release of the publicly available data from the Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI) puts its Weekly Leading Index (WLI) at 131.1, down slightly from 131.6 the previous week. The WLI annualized growth indicator (WLIg) is at -3.7, up from the previous week's -4.0 and off its interim low of -5.0 in mid-January.
Alpha Matters More in Muted Equity Markets
by Chris Marx of AllianceBernstein,
In a Wall Street Journal article last week, financial advisors described how exuberant investors had unrealistic expectations for stock market returns after a six-year rally. We think a more pragmatic approach should aim to beat a slower-paced market in an effort to capture compounding returns.
The Surging U.S. Dollar - Good For Some, Bad For Others
The US dollar has been surging against most other currencies over the last year. The question is, is the rising US dollar good for the economy and the investment markets, or not? No doubt, the rising dollar has been buffeting the US equity and bond markets this year and is increasingly cited as the main culprit. That is what we will delve into today.
The Art of Pension Hopping
Clients who are unlikely to complete a traditional 30-year defined-benefit pension and are willing to pursue an un-orthodox strategy of switching work locations, continually re-purchasing prior service completed in another location will increase their work options, their retirement security and their overall pension income.
Do Liquid Alts Justify Their Costs?
Liquid alts are complex and expensive, so it is natural for advisors to ask if they worth the time and trouble. In this article, I answer this question. I evaluate returns with special emphasis on 2014, when managed futures (notably the AQR Managed Futures Strategy Fund - AQMIX) soared and the largest global macro fund, MainStay Marketfield (MFLDX), stumbled.
The Skill Set for Exceptional Performance
by Dan Richards,
Once you have built an initial client base, you face a very different set of challenges to take your practice to the next level. Overcoming that challenge boils down to identifying and cultivating the skill set needed for exceptional performance - and that's building and managing a high-performance team.
Welcome to the World of Taxes! A Philosophical Introduction for New Taxpayers
In his latest piece, Francois Sicart, Founder and Chairman of Tocqueville Asset Management, discusses his philosophy on taxes for the high net worth, especially from an international perspective.He notes "two waves" of investors who are new to tax planning.
Global Macro Framework
Global Carry, Yen and Dollar are irrefragable drivers of Global Macro. As we explain equities and bonds are just derivatives of these factors. We expose how the big picture asset dynamics worked since the GFC, brief on what happened over the last year and conclude with comments on dollar blowout over the past week.
Cutting Through the Currency Fog
With the euro sliding deeper against the dollar this week, equity investors have been getting nervous. But why is everyone so surprised when known currency fluctuations derail earnings? In our view, a sharper focus on company exposures can help create a “natural” currency hedge in global equity portfolios.
Good luck, Jonathan. Good luck, Nigeria.
This week we look at the upcoming Nigerian presidential election and how the persistent threat of the Boko Haram terrorist movement has complicated the democratic process. The election promises to be a close one between the incumbent, Goodluck Jonathan, and a former military leader, Muhammadu Buhari. In turn, we look back at the 2011 presidential election and analyze how that election facilitated the rapid spread of Boko Haram. Exacerbating matters further, the country suffers from a deepening divide between the Christian south and the Islamic north, which we discuss in detail in this report.
America's China Codependency
by Michael Edesess,
The massive Chinese investment in Treasury securities helps keep interest rates extremely low. This hugely increases the incentive for Americans to borrow. All that is needed is "collateral," and Americans will go out and borrow to their hearts' content and buy Chinese goods.
'Cheating' for Alpha with Beta
by Ryan J. Lehman,
In a recent white paper, our colleagues at GMO very appropriately asked, "Is Skill Dead?" In this paper they examined the results of the large-cap blend peer group, and offered an optimistic outlook for active managers despite recent underperformance. In this article, I expand upon their work and our own by discussing how managers "cheat" for alpha by taking positions in out-of-benchmark risk premia and beta exposures, and how those bets have compromised recent results.
Results 5,251–5,300
of 6,535 found.
