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Scott Mather Discusses PIMCO’s Total Return Strategy
by Scott Mather of PIMCO,
Bonds have continued to rally so far this year, even as the Federal Reserve contemplates raising interest rates. In the following interview, Scott Mather, CIO U.S. Core Strategies, discusses recent developments in the bond markets, the outlook for the year ahead and the investment implications for PIMCO’s Total Return Strategy. Mather co-manages the strategy with Mark Kiesel, CIO Global Credit, and Mihir Worah, CIO Real Return and Asset Allocation.
Alpha Generation for Active Managers
by Heather Rupp of AdvisorShares,
As we discussed in our recent blog (see “The Opportunity in Volatility”), we are currently seeing a lot of attractive opportunities in the high yield market—discounts and yields that we haven’t seen in some time. And while we have seen the yields in the high yield indexes and the products that track them increase over the last six months, they don’t really seem to reflect the true opportunity we are seeing in the market.
Earnings Season Highlights and Lowlights
by Burt White of LPL Financial,
In this commentary we look at some of the highlights and lowlights of fourth quarter
earnings season. Despite the massive drag from the energy sector and the negative impact of a strong U.S. dollar, fourth quarter 2014 earnings are on track to exceed prior estimates. We maintain our 5?-?10% earnings growth forecast for 2015* and believe cheaper energy costs will help us get there.
Curiosity-free Research
by Michael Edesess,
You come across an article that won the Financial Analyst Journal's award for best paper of 2013. You tracked it down from something you saw recently in The Economist. It is written by two Yale professors and two researchers at investment management firms - a good mix of academics and practitioners. Is it safe to assume that it provides reliable information about how to invest one's savings?
Harold Evensky - Nine Key Communication Points
by Robert Huebscher,
Advisors should put their mouths where their money is, according to Harold Evensky. Educating and preparing clients for what advisors will ultimately deliver must be a core principle of every practice. In a recent presentation, Evensky described nine key ways that advisors should interact with clients, the media and their peers.
Questions Remain After Blowout Employment Report
by Lance Roberts of Streettalk Live,
I like to think of myself as a pretty simple guy. I don't like complexity or complications, but most importantly I like things to make sense. The latest employment report, which showed a surge in employment in recent months, left me with more questions than answers.
Questions Remain After Blowout Employment Report
by Lance Roberts of Streettalk Live,
I like to think of myself as a pretty simple guy. I don't like complexity or complications, but most importantly I like things to make sense. The latest employment report, which showed a surge in employment in recent months, left me with more questions than answers.
Outlook and Positioning
Alex Crooke, Head of Global Equity Income, provides a review of the Henderson Global Equity Income Fund's (HFQAX) recent performance and current positioning as well as providing an update on recent events in Europe. Alex notes that the action of the ECB (European Central Bank) starting a quantitative easing (QE) program as the most significant factor driving markets over the next 6 months. While he believes the program will be a slow modest start with monthly purchases around 60trillion Euros, it should gain traction over the next year or two.
All the Children Are Above Average
by Harley Bassman of PIMCO,
Many investment strategies are centered upon discovering a long-term (average) valuation framework to help in asset allocation and security selection. The term surface of various risk parameters often moves in such a manner that the discounted forward value will point toward this long-term average. If a secular shift has taken place - if all the children are above average, so to speak - then maybe the “average” has changed.
The Eurozone: Collateral Damage
by John Mauldin of Mauldin Economics,
Now we're watching another Greek drama that could have significant unintended consequences – far beyond anything the market has priced in today. Then again, maybe not. Maybe the market is right this time. When we enter unknown territory, who knows what we will find? Fertile valleys and treasure, or deserts and devastation? Today we look at the situation in Europe and ponder what we don't know. Greece provides a wonderful learning opportunity.
Metaphors and the message: Searching for deeper understanding of investment information
Metaphors have a powerful influence on how we think about things and even on the evidence we consider important. Investors should be aware of this influence and how it shapes the way we perceive various messages and data points. An important application is to focus on metaphors that are consistent with your investment goals and philosophy.
Key Questions for China Investors in 2015
by Andy Rothman of Matthews Asia,
China raises many questions for investors. Last year, for example, GDP growth slowed to 7.4% from 7.7%, but China still accounted for almost one-third of global growth. Is this a healthy economy or an impending disaster? In the first of a three-part Sinology series, Andy Rothman, Matthews Asia Investment Strategist, addresses some key investor concerns.
ECRI Recession Watch: Weekly Update
Today's new release of the publicly available data from the Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI) puts its Weekly Leading Index (WLI) at 130.8, down from 131.6 the previous week. The WLI annualized growth indicator (WLIg) is at -4.0, up from the previous week's -4.3 and the interim -5.0 low in mid-January.
Your Alpha is My Beta
A couple of weeks ago, I had the pleasure of a short correspondence with Lars Kestner, a well known quant and derivatives trader, and creator of the thoughtful K-ratio as a measure of risk adjusted performance. We connected on the definition of alpha, and how the term has been so abused in media and marketing as to become almost meaningless.
Ditch the Good, Buy the Bad and the Ugly
In a new quarterly letter to GMO's institutional clients, co-head of asset allocation Ben Inker provides background on why, "as the New Year begins, we in Asset Allocation find ourselves slowly selling down even our beloved U.S. quality stocks in favor of the various problem children of the investing world" ("Ditch the Good, Buy the Bad and the Ugly").
Global Carry Rock ‘n’ Roll
Global Carry (known as Risk Parity to some) got a bit of a headwind in December (as we proclaimed it to do on Black Friday) but went straight back to Rock ‘n’ Roll as this year started, good to great. And while the other utterly famous star – the Yen is patiently await, shocked and subdued by her competitor act, all the eyes are on the King of Rock – the Dollar. Some still have his last year stellar performance tune on the mind, but is he about to sing “The times they are a changin’”?
Gallup CEO Calls 5.6% Unemployment Rate "The Big Lie": What's a Realistic Unemployment Rate?
On Linked-In, Gallup CEO, Jim Clifton proclaims 5.6% unemployment is "The Big Lie". And it is. I have talked about this for years, but perhaps it would be interesting to hear the same thing from a CEO of a big agency. I picked this story up from ZeroHedge.
The Absolute Return Letter - January 2015
by Team of Absolute Return Partners,
In large parts of the financial community there is a strongly held belief that the problems which caused the credit crisis back in 2008-09 have never been properly addressed, causing many to suspect that it is only a matter of time before the ‘end game’ is upon us – the credit crisis Mk. II so to speak. I will in the following pages look at various ways the end game might unfold but, before I do so, I shall return to one of the subjects I discussed in the January letter – the end of cheap oil – which caused a flurry of comments and questions.
How to Link Retirement Strategies to Sustainable-Spending Rates
by Wade Pfau,
Last week, my article introduced the Retirement Accumulation and Retirement Affordability indices, which help clients determine if they are retiring at a good time. In this article, I will present my new Retirement Dashboard. More specifically, I will explain how advisors can determine the appropriate sustainable-spending rate based on their client's desired spending pattern.
Momentum X 2: Unleashing the True Power of Momentum
Momentum is one of the most researched market anomalies and has become widely accepted and used in a variety of ways for investment management. When used in practice is it most commonly referred to as relative strength or relative momentum. What happens if we combine the power of relative momentum with absolute momentum?
3 Things - Fed Mistake, ECB QE, Housing
by Lance Roberts of Streettalk Live,
On Wednesday, the Federal Reserve made their latest monetary policy announcement. Janet Yellen, the current Chairwoman, made several statements that led the markets to believe that they remain on course for increasing the overnight lending rate this year.
European Central Bank Embraces QE, For Better Or Worse
Last Thursday, European Central Bank (ECB) President Mario Draghi announced the much-anticipated launch of a sovereign bond buying program at the rate of ?60 billion ($70 billion) per month known as ?quantitative easing.? The amount of the monthly purchases was slightly higher than had been expected.
The Road Back, and Ahead
by Scott Brown of Raymond James,
The U.S. economy data are likely to be mixed in the near term, but there is little doubt that we are gathering steam. The plunge in gasoline prices is an enormous tailwind. However, this isn?t just an energy story. The fundamentals are getting better.
What Happened to the Secular Bear Market in Equities?
History shows that US equity prices have consistently alternated between secular bull and bear trends. These price movements typically average 15-20 years in length and embrace several different business cycles. In April 2003 we published an article posing the question, ?Whither the Secular Trend of Equities?? which laid out the case for the year 2000 being a secular or very long-term peak for the US stock market. Since the three previous secular bears averaged just over 18-years, our working hypothesis was for a weak market until sometime around 2018.
Looking Back at James Montier's "Perfect" Value Investors
by Larry Swedroe,
Is there such a thing as a "perfect" value investor? And if so, what does that investor's fund look like? James Montier thought he knew the answers when he penned his 2006 article "The Perfect Value Investor." Let's look back and see how that portfolio did.
Global Economic Growth Should Gradually Begin to Improve
Equity markets reacted to both positive and negative forces last week, but the positive factors won out in the end. Corporate earnings sentiment was lackluster and investors continued to focus on the negative effects of falling oil prices. However, markets experienced a significant tailwind from a more aggressive-than-expected quantitative easing announcement from the European Central Bank (ECB). For the week, the S&P 500 Index climbed 1.6%, snapping a three week losing streak.
There?s More to the Gold Rally than European Market Fears
Even though gold was down last year, it still ranked as the second-best-performing currency, following the U.S. dollar. The metal has risen about 10 percent year-to-date, and on Tuesday, for the first time since mid-August, it broke through the $1,300 mark.
Despite Hitting an Oil Slick, Evidence Underpins a Positive Outlook on MLPs
The fall in energy prices has raised concerns that the dramatic hydrocarbon volume growth we have seen from the new shale plays in the U.S. in the past few years is over or might even reverse. We believe these concerns are overblown. We think the current dislocation in the commodity markets is a case of supply temporarily getting ahead of demand.
Shock Therapy: Volatility Spells Opportunity
by Pamela Rosenau of HighTower Advisors,
Over the past six months, the world has seen the price of crude oil decline by over 50%. Other commodities such as copper, gold and iron ore have also suffered declines, as demand from emerging markets has weakened. The supply/demand imbalance has created some uncertainty as to where commodity prices will eventually settle, and the sharp price moves have contributed to some of the volatility in financial markets.
3 Things - The Fed, Rig Counts And Employment, ECB
by Lance Roberts of Streettalk Live,
Yesterday, I wrote a fairly lengthy discussion on the biggest fear of the Fed is deflation. As I stated: "The biggest worry of the Federal Reserve, and frankly every Central Banker on the planet, is deflation. The reason is that deflation, as an economic pressure, is dangerous and once entrenched becomes difficult to break."
Deflation, Low Inflation, and Monetary Policy
by Scott Brown of Raymond James,
Central bank policymakers fear deflation more than anything. However, there is good deflation and there is bad deflation. Yet, even low inflation can create problems for an economy. Low inflation is expected to be a key factor in the ECB?s decision to embark on quantitative easing and ought to have some influence on the timing of the Fed?s initial rate hike.
Will Millennials Drive in 2-0-1-5?
It is our opinion that the most important question in stock picking is one related to the Millennial group. Will they drive the U.S. Economy in 2015 through 2020 and in the process greatly impact the long-term profitability of the businesses which benefit the most from their emergence?
Deflation Is A Problem For The Fed
by Lance Roberts of Streettalk Live,
The biggest worry of the Federal Reserve, and frankly every Central Banker on the planet, is deflation. The reason is that deflation, as an economic pressure, is dangerous and once entrenched becomes difficult to break. For the Fed, the fear of inflation is far less worrisome.
The Swiss Release the Kraken!
by John Mauldin of Mauldin Economics,
In an era when central bankers are supposed to be more open, collaborative, and communicative, what would make the Swiss National Bank decide to turn on a dime and shock the markets ? to release the Kraken, as it were? Note that in fact all hell did break loose. Rather than delivering hints accompanied by a few well-placed leaks, the Swiss decided it would be best to completely surprise the markets. It will be a long time before we get the full story on what must have been going through their heads as they reached the decision.
Clock Will Be Ticking for Greece?s New Government
Greece is holding early parliamentary elections on January 25. A victory for the anti-austerity Syriza party would probably trigger tense negotiations with the country?s official lenders and fresh volatility in Greek government bond markets. But the expected launch of ECB QE should mitigate contagion to the rest of the periphery.
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