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Making the Most of a 401(k) Account
Taking advantage of your employer’s retirement savings plan is one of the most powerful and effective tools available to investors planning for retirement. But be wary of “setting and forgetting” the amount you contribute each year: It may not be enough to meet your goals.
Growth Will Pick Up
At first blush, the economy’s growth rate in the third quarter (+1.5%) suggests a significant slowing of activity after its solid performance in the second quarter. However, doubts should be set aside, as it was largely a reduction in inventories that held back overall gross domestic product (GDP) growth. In fact, final sales remained strong. Headline growth should pick up as firms increase inventories in the quarters ahead.
What To Expect From The Stock Market in 2016
by Urban Carmel of The Fat Pitch,
3Q financials have been predictably poor, and 4Q won't be much better. All else equal, 2016 should see a return to growth as the impact from lower oil and a higher dollar may become negligible. Especially for their rate of growth, S&P valuations are high. Even if sales and EPS growth start to pick up, valuations are likely to remain a considerable headwind to equity appreciation in 2016.
U.S. Debt To Hit $20 Trillion, Poverty Remains Rampant
As long-time clients and readers are well aware, the explosion in our national debt has been one of my continuing themes over the last 30+ years, under both Republican and Democrat presidents. So today’s discussion is not a political issue, and it should worry us all.
Do Growth Stocks Still Have Room to Run?
While growth and value stocks have historically traded off leadership roles, we do not think that a decisive shift towards value is in the works.
We think that investing in competitively advantaged innovators is extremely important and that the best defense against potentially disruptive changes is to invest in them.
While we are always interested in value investing opportunities, we see the overall picture as continuing to favor truly innovative growth.
The Most Critical Planning Assumption – and How to Choose it
by Joe Tomlinson,
Compared to the popular approach of assuming a point estimate for the equity-risk premium, an approach that admits we don’t know what number is may seem counterintuitive. But what has been truly crazy is assuming we know a precise number when the evidence clearly indicates that we don’t.
Crime in the Jobs Report
by John Mauldin of Mauldin Economics,
In today’s letter, we are going to look briefly at the latest employment numbers. Then we’ll explore some of the deeper, less understood facets of the employment data. For some of you this may be a lot of detail, but for those of us who think about employment (and you should, as it is THE ultimate driver for your business and investments), understanding how the numbers work and what they mean is important.
Prepare for a More Volatile Market Now
Q&A with Harin de Silva, President of Analytic Investors. He has seen his share of market selloffs over the years. Yet, with the end of the latest bull market likely nearing, he’s not worried about increased volatility—and investors don’t have to be either, he says.
December: Did the Fed Open the Door Wider for a Hike?
by Liz Ann Sonders of Charles Schwab,
The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) issued a more hawkish statement last week alongside its decision to keep interest rates unchanged. The forward guidance section of the statement was worded (emphasis mine) to focus on "whether it will be appropriate to raise the target range at the next meeting." And although it waxed more dovish on employment, it dropped the line from the prior meeting’s statement about global developments, which the FOMC had specifically cited as a reason to hold rates steady in September.
Recession Probability Models - November 2015
by Ted Kavadas of StratX, LLC,
There are a variety of economic models that are supposed to predict the probabilities of recession.
While I don’t agree with the methodologies employed or probabilities of impending economic weakness as depicted by the following two models, I think the results of these models should be monitored.
Please note that each of these models is updated regularly, and the results of these – as well as other recession models – can fluctuate significantly.
Should FIFAA Be Red-Carded?
No, I haven’t gone bonkers – the focus of the Absolute Return Letter has not all of a sudden switched to football. Nor have I lost the ability to spell correctly, although I am sure that there are one or two like-minded readers out there who would also like to see the rear side of Sepp Blatter one final time.
Apples and Oranges: A Random Portfolio Case Study
This article was motivated by a provocative discussion with a thoughtful RIA. Let’s call him Harry.
Harry expressed some disappointment with the performance of Global Tactical Asset Allocation (GTAA) strategies over the past few years relative to some popular tactical U.S. sector rotation funds.
Uncertainties Holding the Market Hostage
by Byron Wien of Blackstone,
Before August 11, the popular perception was that the United States economy was growing at about a 2% annual rate and the Standard & Poor’s was locked in a trading range between 2040 and 2125. After the Chinese revalued the renminbi by 2%, the trading range was lowered to 1875–2025. Perhaps the key reason for the equity market’s inability to work its way higher is the belief that earnings for the index are likely to be flat in 2015 compared with last year (the view that we are in an earnings recession). The strong dollar and lower oil prices have contributed to this situation.
Have Commodities Reached an Inflection Point?
This week the Federal Reserve announced that it would delay the interest rate liftoff yet again, but while everyone seems concerned about nominal rates—the federal funds rate, in this case—real rates have already risen about 5 percent since August 2011. This “invisible” rate hike is much more impactful to commodity prices and emerging markets than a nominal rate hike, which is simply the “tip of the iceberg.”
Corporate Beige Book
by Burt White of LPL Financial,
According to our new Corporate Beige Book, China has been a popular subject of discussion among corporate management teams this earnings season. Similar to the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) Beige Book, a qualitative assessment of the U.S. economy and each of the 12 Fed districts, conference call transcripts for third quarter 2015 company earnings reports can be used to create a Corporate Beige Book—a window into corporate America.
The Weather Will Change for MLPs
The advantages and competitiveness of North American shale assets will only grow over time and we expect production to resume its increase at some point. We believe the recent sell off in MLPs is due to forced selling and a typical equity market cascade and overshoot, which has created a potentially attractive opportunity for investors to allocate to the asset class. Adapting Mark Twain to the MLP market, the reports of its demise are greatly exaggerated.
It's Darkest Before the Dawn – but Is the Time Now 1am or 5am?
It has been a pretty brutal summer for the energy markets. Brent oil fell from $65 in May to below $40, and the MSCI World Energy Index was down around 25% over the same period, leaving energy as the worst performing sector year-to-date and the most out-of-favour among all the portfolio manager surveys that we see. Long-dated Brent oil has also fallen; having started the year at $78 and traded in a fairly tight $75-$80 range until the end of June, it fell to a low point of just over $60, over 40% off its highs last year.
4Q 2015 Outlook: Key Issues Have Not Changed Much This Year
As the final quarter of 2015 begins, we are reminded of several topics of focus from the start of the year: concerns that global central bankers are stuck with their current monetary policies because the global economy now depends on them; market acceptance that higher U.S. interest rates are inevitable, even if they rise only slightly; and favorable prospects for U.S. consumers, who benefit from a stronger labor market and lower energy prices. If the topics sound familiar now, it is because little has changed in these areas while global risks have increased for several reasons.
On My Radar: I’m Rooting For Ray
There is a great deal of research around investor behavior. For example, our brains notice when a group provides an answer that is different from ours, the disparity is unpleasant. For many, aligning with the group is more rewarding for the brain than being independent and correct.
Dan Fuss: Rates Will Rise (and so will taxes)
by Robert Huebscher,
If there truly were a “bond king,” it would not be Bill Gross or Jeffrey Gundlach. It would be Dan Fuss, whose tenure in the fixed-income markets has spanned more than half a century. In a talk last week, Fuss warned investors to expect higher interest rates along with higher taxes.
Black Ice: Low-Volatility Investing in Theory and Practice
Equity investors have endured two extreme market downturns since the turn of the century. The broad U.S. market, represented by the S&P 500 Index, fell by 44% in the aftermath of the dot-com bubble and 51% in the great recession. These devastating experiences reawakened institutional and individual investors to the downside of market volatility and, for a while, prompted great interest in low-volatility investing.
An Important Rebalancing Milestone
by Andy Rothman of Matthews Asia,
Third quarter macroeconomic data shows that Chinese consumers shrugged off the A-share market fall, with a small acceleration in spending. While many headlines may declare that China’s 6.9% GDP growth was the slowest since 2009, it should be noted that this pace of growth was on a base that is about 300% bigger than it was a decade ago (when GDP growth was 10%), meaning that the incremental expansion in China’s economy this year is about 60% bigger than it was back in the day.
Five Bad Reasons For The Fed To Raise Rates Now And One Good Reason Not To
by Paul Kasriel of The Econtrarian,
A couple of days before the September 16-17 FOMC meeting, I happened to be listening to the NPR program, “On Point”, the subject of which was the appropriateness of a Fed policy interest rate increase at that time. Of the guests on the show, the principal advocate of Fed “lift-off” was a William Cohan, who had written an August 28 New York Times op-ed entitled “Show Some Spine, Federal Reserve”.
Where to Look for Outperforming Active Managers
by Bob Veres,
Not all stock-pickers are winners, and winning funds tend to be scattered all over the various sectors of the market. Is there a way to analyze the different segments of the global opportunity set, and determine the best places to look for those outperforming managers?
The Hinge
by John Hussman of Hussman Funds,
One of the central themes I’ve emphasized over the past year is the critical importance of using market internals as a gauge of investor risk-seeking and risk-aversion. Over the long-term, investment returns are driven by valuations – particularly on a 10-12 year horizon. Over shorter horizons, and more limited portions of the market cycle, the primary driver of investment returns is the preference of investors to seek or avoid risk.
Third Avenue Management Defends Its Pursuit of Alpha
by Larry Swedroe,
Bloomberg TV recently invited me onto their new show, Bloomberg GO, for a short debate on active versus passive investing with David Barse, the CEO of Third Avenue Management. Barse stated his funds had been able to beat their index benchmark. Let’s go to our trusty videotape to see if Third Avenue has, in fact, been delivering alpha.
The “Age” Age
by John Mauldin of Mauldin Economics,
As I mentioned in last week’s letter, I traveled to San Francisco last Monday with my friend Patrick Cox, who writes our Transformational Technology Alert newsletter. We had dinner with Dr. Mike West of Biotime and then spent the next morning at the Buck Institute for Research on Aging. Pat and I decided we would jointly report on what we learned.
Charting the Market's Course
This week we highlight seven key charts to watch that may determine the stock market’s near-term direction. The charts cover a wide range of topics including manufacturing sentiment, earnings, oil, and high-yield bonds. We believe these charts can help investors navigate the market’s course for the balance of 2015 and into 2016.
Asia Lens on Global ESG
by Vivek Tanneeru of Matthews Asia,
For Asia’s vast, newly minted middle classes, quality of life issues are increasingly becoming front and center. Governments and regulators are increasingly tackling Environmental, Social and Governance (ESG) issues and taking these problems more seriously. For investors looking to make investment decisions based upon ESG factors, Asia represents one of the best opportunities to gain exposure to companies that can make a long-term difference to the region and the world.
Zero Yields & The Debt Ceiling
by Anthony Valeri of LPL Financial,
The Treasury issued new three-month Treasury bills (T-bills) at 0% yield at auction last week and is on pace to do so again on October 13, 2015. Zero percent T-bill yields, or even lower, are not new, but 0% prevailing at an auction is unusual and made media headlines.
How NOT to Wipe Out with Momentum
Momentum investors are like the surfers we watch from beaches along the Pacific coast. Both must catch a wave. Both attempt to ride it as it breaks. But the ability to glide away smoothly before being caught inside the inevitable crash(ing wave) that follows is what determines success.
Retirees: The Risks, Dangers and Advantages of Reaching For Yield: Part 2B
by Chuck Carnevale of F.A.S.T. Graphs,
There is an undeniable fact that differentiates investing when in retirement versus investing while you are still working. When you are employed, you are working for your money. However, once a person truly enters their retirement years, the situation reverses itself. When in retirement you begin the stage in your life where your money must work for you. In my opinion, this changes the investing dynamic considerably.
South Africa’s Sporting and Economic Scorecard
Dubbed the “rainbow nation” after the end of apartheid in 1994, South Africa had much to be hopeful about. In 2010, it achieved heightened recognition among investors when it became the fifth member of the “BRICS” grouping of emerging market economies, along with Brazil, Russia, India and China. While its economy and demographics differ from other BRIC countries, it has one thing in common with Brazil, Russia and China: It has hosted major global sporting events over the years. South Africa hosted the FIFA World Cup five years ago, and it hosted and won the Rugby World Cup 20 years ago
4 Warnings And Why You Should Pay Attention
by Lance Roberts of Streettalk Live,
When I was growing up my father, probably much like yours, had pearls of wisdom that he would drop along the way. It wasn't until much later in life that I learned that such knowledge did not come from books, but through experience.
Results 4,951–5,000
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