As has been the case from day one when the first airstrikes began, the key factor in assessing economic and market impact is the duration of the effective Strait of Hormuz closure and resulting effects on prices of energy and other commodities. Prediction markets are split on whether the conflict ends by the end of May.
In this month’s Allocation Views, healthy earnings growth is disguising a bifurcation that has resulted in particularly challenging earnings expectations for large-cap growth stocks in 2026.
If you have been thinking about a move, the chaos outside your window is not a reason to stop. It might be the best reason to start.
Five techniques can help human experts tame hallucinations and make models more effective.
The Qualified Opportunity Zone (QOZ) program is entering a pivotal transition period, with some legacy incentives expiring this year and a redesigned framework set to take effect next year.
Comparing business-cycle-related primary trends of the falling 2-year Treasury yield shows that this is the slowest business cycle since WWII. I argue the slowness of this cycle is evidence of the 6+% average pro-cyclical fiscal deficit over the last three and a half years.
For decades, the 60/40 portfolio was the gold standard for balanced investing. However, as correlations between stocks and bonds fluctuate and traditional safe havens face new pressures, advisors are looking toward alternatives to increase portfolio efficiency.
With 2026 now in full swing, it’s time to announce the global podium for robotics — brought to you by the ROBO Global Robotics and Automation Index (ROBO).
The word 'equilibrium' is an invitation to recognize that nothing exists by itself, alone. Subject and object are two sides of the same coin – their interaction is a single phenomenon. That perspective can offer a great deal of insight about economics, financial markets, speculative bubbles, passive investing, and nearly everything in existence.
Iran-related geopolitical risk has boosted stock volatility, especially in sectors like Energy. Uncertainty remains high and there are a range of scenarios for how this conflict could be resolved and how it might affect economic conditions and markets.
This past weekend, Adam Taggart and I discussed what happens to Treasury bond yields when the United States enters a military conflict. The conventional wisdom is reflexive and tidy.
When geopolitical tensions flare up, the natural assumption is that gold should immediately surge. War breaks out, markets panic… and the metal rallies as investors rush to safety.
Skyrocketing oil prices were accompanied by mixed inflation readings last week. The headline Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation rate held steady in February at 2.4 percent annually, while core CPI, which excludes more volatile food and energy costs, rose a modest 0.22 percent for the month.
The market ended last week with a more cautious tone as rising oil and the widening Middle East conflict bring a fresh layer of uncertainty. I could see the markets experiencing a 10% correction from the recent highs. We are not anticipating a major decline for the S&P 500, but the mood has clearly changed.
The whole world will feel the consequences of this conflict.
GMO has posted a new 7-Year asset class forecast as of February 28, 2026.
Despite less reliance on oil, higher oil prices will add pressure to inflation. If energy costs stay elevated, inflation could rise again, potentially delaying interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve (Fed). Geopolitical uncertainty remains a risk. Conflicts in the Middle East could disrupt supply chains and increase price volatility in key commodities like oil.
In the aftermath of the first Internet stock-market bubble of the late 1990s the economy went into a relatively shallow recession starting in 2001. That recession was precipitated by a tight monetary policy, with the Federal Reserve setting short-term interest rates consistently above the pace of nominal GDP growth (real GDP growth plus inflation).;
International equities — non-U.S. equities — brought in a record $60 billion in January. Investors are looking abroad for their investment opportunities amid domestic uncertainty like significant concentration risk, Fed questions, and policy concerns.
The Procure Space ETF (UFO) has entered 2026 with significant momentum as investor enthusiasm around the commercialization of space continues to build.
There has been so much data released in the past week it’s hard to know where to begin. Much of the data is inconclusive or not helpful, but it is not as bad as many click-bait pundits suggest as they take each data point and extrapolate it into the future.
The private equity (PE) business is huge. When I say huge, I mean $4.4 trillion huge. However, as we warned then, the risks have come home to roost. The private equity and private credit industry is heading into a gut-wrenching period of consolidation.
One of the things I enjoy most about producing videos and educational content is the thoughtful feedback and questions from viewers. Often, the comments themselves highlight areas where investors are seeking a deeper understanding of value investing principles.
The Fed’s new economic projections are fraught with even more uncertainty. The Middle East conflict is unlikely to derail growth in a meaningful way.
After a decade defined by narrow, largely intangible businesses driving growth, markets appear to be entering a new phase shaped by physical buildout across AI infrastructure, defense, energy, and supply chains.
Although the administration has expressed support for a lower federal funds rate, several policy developments since taking office continue to complicate that objective. In particular, recent tariff actions – some of which were legally challenged and later invalidated by the Supreme Court – have contributed to ongoing uncertainty around trade policy.
As advisors explore 2026 ETF Trends, Exchange presented a session covering top-of-mind stories. The session featured members from Women in ETFs, that inlcuded J.P. Morgan’s Julie Abbett, American Century Investments’ Cleo Chang, Fidelity Investments’ Lubna Lundy, and moderator Roxanna Islam from VettaFi, who unpacked the state of ETF markets in 2026.
Market leadership shifted modestly this week, with the performance gap between small cap and large cap stocks narrowing.
As artificial intelligence (AI) infrastructure debt floods bond markets, investors face a new risk landscape shaped by complex financing structures and potential overbuilding across the data center ecosystem.
Corporate pension sponsors don’t enjoy unwelcome surprises, particularly those that create financial strain. Many experienced significant financial stress following the Global Financial Crisis and the prolonged decline in interest rates that followed.
The market has shifted quickly from concerns about artificial intelligence (AI) disruption to rising geopolitical risks tied to the conflict in Iran. Headlines continue to drive market movements as investors wait for greater clarity on the timing of a U.S. exit strategy.
For families with loved ones who have special needs, tomorrow often arrives sooner than expected. Many families instinctively plan for today: therapies, education, medical care, and navigating government benefits.
We covered a lot of ground, but one image stuck with me: He called the Strait of Hormuz the sword of Damocles hanging over the global economy. For decades, the world’s most critical energy chokepoint has dangled there.
A surprise 92k decline in February nonfarm payrolls and a rise in the unemployment rate to 4.4% signal some labor market softening, though stronger ISM manufacturing and services readings and still-low jobless claims suggest the broader U.S. growth backdrop remains intact.
The worsening energy shock from the Iran War has raised risks of a more severe crisis. It may resolve quickly, but the longer it persists, the larger the possible economic damage. Asia and Europe are most vulnerable.
The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) conducts a massive monthly survey of hundreds of Purchasing Managers, which are the executives responsible for buying the raw materials and supplies that keep companies running.
Iran's de facto closing of the Strait of Hormuz precipitated the latest in a series of energy crises. Since the 1970s, some energy spikes were associated with weak stock markets, but some were not.
Supported in part by a growing U.S. defense budget, legacy aerospace and defense ETFs are performing admirably. A trio of those funds each have more than doubled over the past three years.
Deep value stocks remain our highest conviction long-only investment idea. Globally, they trade at abnormally wide discounts and offer attractive expected returns in an environment where many equities trade at elevated valuation levels.
In this article, Russ Koesterich notes the year-to-date strength of both cyclical and defensive stocks, a pairing that seems too strange to last.
For the second time in less than a year, the United States is engaged in military conflict in the Middle East. And once again, investors must assess how escalating tensions could affect markets.
A healthy mix of income and growth potential may yield a more effective equity allocation.
As the capital expenditure (capex) race for compute continues, we thought that it would be worthwhile to briefly outline the current state of play facing the well-publicized data center buildout. To understand why so much capex is needed to support artificial intelligence (AI), we must first understand how data centers are built and operated.
Investing is an exercise in decision making under uncertainty. No single signal—no matter how intuitive or well supported by history—captures the full complexity of markets.
The OBBBA expands Section 1202 benefits, allowing certain C-corp business owners to exclude significant capital gains. This complex provision requires specific holding periods and asset tests, making professional guidance essential to maximizing these tax savings.
Volatility spiked as investors questioned the Federal Reserve's next move, adding to existing concerns about private credit markets. Here's why investors shouldn't overreact.
State Street Investment Management is continuing its push into the intersection of public and private credit with the launch of a new ETF.
The military conflict in Iran and the Middle East is curtailing the global flow of oil and natural gas. This adds notable pressure to energy prices and the near-term inflation outlook, while also raising questions about countries’ reliance on energy imports and their economic resilience.
In this second installment of our series, Chuck Carnevale, co-founder of FAST Graphs and widely known as Mr. Valuation, takes a deeper dive into the S&P 500 to demonstrate how investors can uncover potential opportunities within an otherwise expensive market.
At these levels, valuations are stretched, leaving investors with little potential upside and increased vulnerability to spread widening. In our view, such an environment warrants a shift toward high-quality assets.
