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New Concerns of Rigged Markets and Rigged Elections
Coming up we’ll hear from Michael Rivero of WhatReallyHappened.com. Michael gives us his uncensored opinions on the recently concluded political conventions, why he sees this as a crucial election for the future of our Republic, and why he views precious metals as a must-own asset for the tumultuous times ahead.
Gordon Chang: China in Big Trouble, Could Bring Global Economy Down with It
There’s been some big news out of China lately, and today we’ll dive deeper into the discussion when I welcome in Gordon Chang. Mr. Chang is one of the foremost experts on the Chinese economy and has written a book titled The Coming Collapse of China. He’ll tell us why he believes an epic collapse is imminent and what it all means for the Western financial world and why he believes there is what he calls a Chinese floor on the gold price. Don’t miss an incredibly enlightening interview with Gordon Chang, coming up after this week’s market update.
Marc Faber on Cashless Society Insanity and Why Wall Street Hates Gold
It is my privilege now to be joined by a man who needs little introduction, Marc Faber; editor and publisher of The Gloom, Boom & Doom Report. Dr. Faber has frequently appeared on financial shows across the globe and he's a well-known Austrian school economist, and an investment adviser.
Monetary Policy Stuck in the Mid?Atlantic
As we look forward to 2016, once again we are faced with the question of whether the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) at the Bank of England (BOE) will finally raise interest rates, or whether this will prove to be another year where expectations for a move in official rates are to be dashed.
Fed Bolsters Investment Grade Bond Issuance
Barring an external shock that sends global risk assets lower, the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) decision to keep interest rates unchanged while lowering its projected pace of future rate hikes is likely to support a continuation of the heavy pace of new corporate bond issuance and merger and acquisition (M&A) activity in the US investment grade (IG) market.
U.S. and Canada: Continued Recovery With Some Potential for Headwinds
by Ed Devlin, Mike Cudzil of PIMCO,
?Each quarter, PIMCO investment professionals from around the world gather in Newport Beach to discuss the firm’s outlook for the global economy and financial markets. In the following interview, portfolio managers Ed Devlin and Mike Cudzil discuss PIMCO’s cyclical outlook for Canada and the U.S..
Will the UK Election Derail the Recovery?
While the economic outlook for the UK is not without risk, most notably if there is an extended period of political paralysis, the UK recovery is much better shape than during the last general election in 2010 and should stay its course. We believe the benign inflationary backdrop will aid economic growth that saw GDP gains of 0.6% for the final quarter of 2014. In an environment of subdued underlying inflationary pressures and sterling appreciating relative to its major trading partners, the Bank of England can afford to wait to tighten monetary policy.
Can ECB Policy Heal Europe’s Ills?
In this interview, Managing Directors Mike Amey, Andrew Bosomworth and Lorenzo Pagani discuss the conclusions from PIMCO’s quarterly Cyclical Forum in March 2015 and how they influence our European investment strategy. They also delve into the impact of the European Central Bank’s (ECB) balance sheet expansion on growth and inflation and reflect on Europe’s improving economic health.
Recession is On the Way: Questioning One's Sanity; Beat the Crowd, Panic Now!
In 2006-2007 I called for a recession. We got a big one. I called for another one in 2011, as did the ECRI. That recession never happened.
50% is not a very good recession predicting track record except in comparison to consensus economic opinions that have never once in history predicted a recession. Consensus opinion is batting a perfect 0.00%
What Does the Current Low Interest Rate Environment Mean for Agency MBS?
by Mike Cudzil, Daniel Hyman of PIMCO,
After the agency MBS market in 2014 was dominated by low volatility, limited prepayment risk and strong performance, the strong rally in U.S. Treasuries in January resulted in just the opposite. With the Fed ending net purchases of MBS in October 2014, it seems unlikely for the private investment community to take the Fed’s place in the MBS market at this level of interest rates and spreads. PIMCO expects the environment for MBS in 2015 to be quite the opposite of 2014, resulting in higher volatility, cheaper valuations and more attractive excess return opportunities for the active manager.
Diving Into the Payroll Report: Wages Rebound (But Don't Get Too Excited), Revisions, Huge Jump in L
Wages rebounded from the dip last month (but don't get too excited as per details below). Also, there were big upward revisions to many prior numbers. The unemployment rate rose this month because of a huge increase in the labor force. The civilian institutional population also leaped this month, and apparently these newly-found people are all looking for work.
Your Alpha is My Beta
A couple of weeks ago, I had the pleasure of a short correspondence with Lars Kestner, a well known quant and derivatives trader, and creator of the thoughtful K-ratio as a measure of risk adjusted performance. We connected on the definition of alpha, and how the term has been so abused in media and marketing as to become almost meaningless.
Germany's "Time Pressure" Thesis; Noose Tightens on Europe
Today German Chancellor Angela Merkel proclaimed Greek Diplomatic Offensive Is Failing. Merkel’s Christian Democratic-led bloc in parliament has agreed not to give in to any “bad compromise that “defacto adds up to a debt writedown,” Hans-Peter Friedrich, a deputy leader of the caucus, said in an interview today.
Gallup CEO Calls 5.6% Unemployment Rate "The Big Lie": What's a Realistic Unemployment Rate?
On Linked-In, Gallup CEO, Jim Clifton proclaims 5.6% unemployment is "The Big Lie". And it is. I have talked about this for years, but perhaps it would be interesting to hear the same thing from a CEO of a big agency. I picked this story up from ZeroHedge.
Wait and See at the Bank of England
UK growth looks to be sustainable, with encouraging domestic demand, though we need to see business investment continue to pick up. Although inflation hovering below the 1% lower tolerance band of the Bank of England (BOE) remains a concern, we think it actually gives the central bank welcome breathing room during a period of uncertainty for the global economy. Looking ahead, we see compelling investment value in the intermediate part of the UK yield curve, namely five- to 10-year bonds, as the BOE plays the waiting game.
Dow 20,000: Is 2015 the Year
It?s that time of year again. Yup, that jolly, happy time of year when the soothsayers of Wall Street start trumpeting their views on what?s going to happen in 2015, and how to position portfolios to profit. Esteemed Wharton professor, Jeremy Siegel, author of the permabull bible, Stocks for the Long Run, recently joined the merry parade with his own forecast that Dow 20,000 ?could happen? in 2015. Astute investors might take stakes now in large manufacturers of confetti, party horns, and streamers.
Recovery Gaining Momentum?
U.S. growth will remain robust over the cyclical horizon due to increasing consumption driven by the narrowing unemployment gap and increase in disposable incomes. The Canadian recovery should continue, though divergent forces ? including the U.S. recovery and oil price declines ? could have significant implications for the economy. Growth will be muted across Latin America, with some economies benefitting from U.S. growth, and others dragged down by the slowdown in the eurozone and China.
Is the UK Getting Back to Business as Usual??
In light of the generally buoyant economy, we may start to see more normal conditions returning to the UK labour market and, importantly, upward movement in wage growth over the cyclical horizon. In turn, these developments are critical for the conduct and timing of monetary policy and the behaviour of the Bank of England's (BOE) Monetary Policy Committee. We believe investors may want to treat the BOE's interest rate cycle with caution in shorter-maturity bonds, while valuations offer more protection in intermediate bonds given PIMCO's New Neutral thesis of secularly low real interest rates.
Financial Repression (and How to Defend Yourself From It)
by Mike Shedlock of Doug Short,
I had the pleasure of being interviewed by Gordon Long last week. Gordon is publisher and editor of Gordon T Long Macro Analytics. The topic was "Financial Repression". What is financial repression? I defined it as "a set of fiscal and monetary policies for the expressed benefit of the ruling class: politicians, banks, and the already wealthy, at the expense of everyone else." In the video, I give numerous examples of repression, noting that central bank sponsored inflation is the epitome of financial repression. We also discuss what to do about financial repression.
PIMCO Cyclical Outlook for the Americas: Recovery Remains Intact, Yet Uneven
U.S. growth can potentially exceed expectations over the cyclical horizon, in part bolstered by a healing consumer and a very accommodative Federal Reserve. While real growth in Canada has been modest in recent years, it increased to 3.1% in the second quarter and we expect that positive momentum to continue this year. In Latin America, we expect growth will pick up for the region as a whole with outperformance by smaller economies like Colombia and Panama.
Forget Active vs. Passive: It's All About Factors
We just love a good debate, and there seems to be quite a heated debate at the moment about the relative utility of passive versus active investing. Perhaps this debate is as timeless as investment management itself, but a flurry of recent studies may have finally armed passive advocates with enough ammunition to settle the argument once and for all.
Is There a UK Housing Bubble????
We see the UK experiencing a very traditional monetary cycle involving lower mortgage rates, higher house prices and then hopefully higher transactions. The Bank of England can address rising house prices either by raising financing costs via the banking system or by raising interest rates. Markets will watch BoE activity closely. Our expectation is for a gradual and modest interest rate cycle, with low rates in the UK economy for years to come. Housing may be an overvalued asset, but one that is secularly supported by low rates.
Mixed Signals and the Road Less Traveled
As the markets flirt with all-time highs and a potential shift in Fed policy, earnings season has not altered the fact that the level of investor uncertainty feels elevated. Throw in the case of a really bad winter, a geopolitical environment that rhymes with events just prior to World War I, and poor trading volumes, and it all suggests that heightened levels of unease remain.
Henny Pennies
While the Fed?s qualitative guidance may have increased uncertainties over monetary policy, volatility will likely remain contained by powerful short- and long-run forces related to the economic outlook. In the UK, we should at least respect the risk of a hike late in the first quarter of 2015, earlier than what is currently priced in. In Japan, we believe the BOJ will remain full throttle on its current monetary easing for some time.
A Sustainable Recovery??
Early signs indicate that the long awaited increase in business investment is underway. In turn, that bodes well for real income growth and the sustainability of the economic recovery. Given the improved economic prospects and the change in rhetoric at the Bank of England, the central bank could well be an early adopter of tighter monetary policy. We expect the BoE to hike rates ahead of the US Federal Reserve. While we beli?eve the British pound has already reflected the BoE?s guidance for official rates to rise by mid-2015, the bond market has yet to fully reflect the new environment. ?
Broadleaf's 2014 Investment Playbook
Most sell side firms publish their outlook for the economy and stock market at the end of December and in early January. As a buy side firm, we really arent under any expectation to share our outlook for the coming year and, as funny as it might sound, some of our clients dont even care to know what we think, only that we handle what they hired us to do, which is to outperform the market indices over a full market cycle and help them attain their financial goals over time.
Reflections on 2013: What's Important, What's Not, and What's Ahead
A tale of 2 halves with lingering questions characterizes what we can say was the story for housing for 2013. In the first half of the year, rates were low as the 10 year note was well under 2%. People were still refinancing, as home prices rocketed. Multiple bids were common, and pundits like Ivy Zelman cheered the improving market with praise like "Housing is in Nirvana".
2013 A Pretty Good Year
by Mike Temple of Pioneer Investments,
This time last year we were bullish about equities and positive on the slow but steady strengthening of the economy. The market did not disappoint. The economy was almost heroic, you might say, with its performance enduring government sequestrations and higher taxes almost a 2% drag on GDP but comporting with our expectations of 2 - 2.5% growth. 2013 is ending with GDP and the markets coming fairly close to what we thought theyd achieve. Now the year is almost out, so lets take stock of 2013 but look ahead to 2014.
A Much Better Dilemma
While the UK economy is likely to avoid reverting to growth levels of recent years, it must transition into a more durable recovery involving business investment, higher productivity and stronger real wages. However, headwinds for domestic demand look significant and the banking system appears to favour secured lending to consumers over businesses. We believe that much of the rise in bond yields is already behind us. With clearer value in shorter bonds, our preference lies in short and intermediate gilts.
Viewpoints from AAM - Navigating the New High Landscape
December, historically the best month to own equities, has begun with a whimper with the S&P 500 closing at a loss each of the first four days of the month. If you include the last trading day of November, that makes five days in a row of red-filled screens for a total loss of 1.23% for the S&P 500. In the grand scheme of things that is a pretty small loss but it already has pundits dismissing the chances of a "Santa Claus Rally" and others saying the recent new market high of 1807.23 for the S&P 500 reached on November 27 might be its last.
Twenty Five
I am not a particularly good salesman. From the time I first meet a prospect to when they become a full-fledged client, it can often take two years even when they initiate the first meeting. Fortunately, growing the firm isnt one of my primary roles, a responsibility that does fall to Bill Hoover, my business partner. The beauty of our relationship is that while Bill devotes his time to our firms outside efforts, I am able to spend almost all of my attention tending to the portfolios of those who have already hired us. (View a printable version of this Economic
Results 151–200
of 313 found.