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Trying to Stop a Bull Market Has Risks
U.S. stocks have been on a tear. The S&P 500 Index has climbed a surprising 20 percent so far this year, as a global synchronized recovery takes shape and funds flow back to equities. As I often say, investors take risks when they try to stop a bull run, and plenty of data suggest you might regret taking that action this year.
Formosa: Back to Beautiful
by Patricia Huang of Matthews Asia,
When the Portuguese first landed on Taiwan, they called it Ilha Formosa or Beautiful Island. However, Taiwans route to success has been far more prosaicit rapidly industrialized by mass producing a wide range of consumer goods, including textiles and footwear, toys, bicycles, appliances and computer chips. It famously grew its economy via an export-driven model, making the Made in Taiwan label ubiquitous.
Pacific Basin Market Overview - September 2013
by Team of Nomura Asset Management,
North Asian markets ended higher during the quarter after comments from Federal Reserve Chairman Bernanke appeared to infer that the Feds asset purchase program would be extended for a while longer. On the other hand, India and the ASEAN (Association of Southeast Asian Nations) region underperformed along with weakening currencies and continued fund outflows. In China, Premier Li Keqiangs statement that China would meet its gross domestic product (GDP) growth target this year, coupled with better-than-expected economic data, brought some relief to the equity markets.
The Science of Forensic Accounting
by Sudarshan Murthy of Matthews Asia,
The financial reporting of corporations in Asia is complex, and having a solid grasp of all the nuances involved in these accounting practices is critical when making investment decisions. This month Research Analyst Sudarshan Murthy, CFA, kicks off the first in a series of commentaries on the science of forensic accounting. This first issue focuses on the numbers, and examines what is considered in order to understand a companys accounting decisions and the implications they can have on financial reports.
The Turmoil in Washington
At the time of this publication the budget situation has not been resolved, although it appears that both parties are backing away from the default abyss. However, given that these crises seem to come once or twice a year, it seemed appropriate to weigh in on the geopolitical impact of the intractable problems of American government.
Equity Market Review & Outlook
Equities generally performed well across the board in the third quarter. The S&P 500 Indexs solid 5.24% return built on strong gains from earlier in the year. The Index has returned more than 19% through September, surpassing expectations at the start of the year. Slow but steady economic growth in the US, support from the Federal Reserve (the Fed), and more recently, signs of potentially better growth in Europe and Asia have been important positive catalysts.
Now Showing in Macau
by Taizo Ishida of Matthews Asia,
What is most impressive about Macau today is the strong sense of collaboration and commitment from all involved parties: both Macau and mainland Chinese government officials and casino operators. While Asias other gambling centers (Singapore, Malaysia, Cambodia and the Philippines) have also seen waves of notable development in recent years, Macau, in my opinion, should be recognized as the gold standard of the gaming space in Asia.
Flying Blind: Forecasting with No Data or Endgame
by Diane Swonk of Mesirow Financial,
Everything from the government shutdown to posturing regarding the lifting of the debt ceiling has heightened uncertainty about the economic outlook. Consumer and business confidence have fallen since the threat of a shutdown emerged, while the reality has taken a toll on communities where a large number of federal workers have been furloughed. Everyone, from cab drivers to restaurant owners, small retailers and (largely) defense manufacturers, were affected in the early days of the partial shutdown of government agencies.
Economic and Market Overview: Third Quarter 2013
The economic environment in the third quarter was one of growth, albeit at a slower pace than most economists, and the Federal Reserve (?Fed?), believe can be self-?sustaining. The slow but steady gains the economy made were enough to buoy the stock market, but likely only because the Fed has seen it necessary to maintain its aggressive monetary policy. While employment gains were anemic during the quarter, the unemployment rate actually declined to 7.3%, largely due to a contraction in the labor force.
Little Visible Progress on the Budget Shutdown, but Some Inside Baseball In Play
by Sam Wardwell of Pioneer Investments,
President Obama canceled his planned visit to Asia and participation in the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation summitciting the inconvenience caused by the government shutdown (the difficulty in moving forward with foreign travel in the face of a shutdown), sending John Kerry in his place, and reiterating his unwillingness to negotiate with Republicans.
The Market May Be Signaling a Return to a More Typical Recovery
by Whitney George of The Royce Funds,
Despite the Feds indecision about whether or not to taper, we see evidence that business activity is normalizing and the global economy is getting healthier. Co-CIO, Managing Director, and Portfolio Manager Whitney George talks about how economically sensitive sectors have begun to benefit from rising rates in the small-cap rally, how recent news coming out of China has affected certain portfolio investments, where he is currently seeing long-term opportunities, and stocks in which he has high confidence.
Detente with Iran?
On September 28th, President Obama reportedly called Iranian President Rouhani to confer over American and Iranian relations. In addition, Irans nuclear program was discussed. This was a historic eventthe first documented call between a U.S. president and his counterpart in Iran in 35 years. The last time such a conversation occurred was when the Shah was in power.
Absolute Return Letter: Heads or tails?
Demographics captivate me. There are around 7.1 billion of us occupying planet earth today, going to 10 billion by 2050. I often think about how good old mother earth will cope with the additional 3 billion people we are projected to produce between now and 2050. More people translate into increased pressure on already scarce resources, but that is only part of the story and a story well covered by now.
Shutdown, Debt Ceiling - Who Cares?
by Gregg Bienstock of Lumesis,
Driving home last week, the plight of furloughed Federal employees was on my mind. How could our elected officials in DC accept their pay for not doing their jobs while hurting folks that want to work but are told not to because the men and woman not doing their job (and still getting paid) shutdown part of the government? I was heartened to learn that Congress was going to take action but quickly realized that the fix paralleled the stupidity that got us into this mess. The legislation ensures that all furloughed employees will be paid for the furlough period.
New Experiment in Shanghai
by Sherwood Zhang of Matthews Asia,
In an attempt to further liberalize Chinas economy, central government officials have created an experimental new free trade zone, which officially opened for business this week. The zone combines four existing but smaller development areas within Shanghai that are already exempt from import and export tariffs.
Is the Pump Primed for Emerging Markets Investors?
The vulnerabilitiesor rather, perceived vulnerabilitiesof emerging markets have been the focus of heightened discussions over the past few months. Concerns about the health of emerging markets came on the heels of political upheavals in Egypt, economic deceleration in China and protest demonstrations in Brazil and Turkey this summer.
The Fire Fueling Gold
For patient, long-term investors looking for a great portfolio diversifier, a moderate weighting in gold and gold stocks may be just the answer. And, today, when looking across the gold mining industry, you?ll find plenty of companies that have paid attractive dividends, many higher than the 5-year government yield.
The Math is Pretty Straightforward...
by Blaine Rollins of 361 Capital,
Congress and the White House must be pretty fired up that D&D2 started filming last week. The new movie might be the only thing more stupid than our elected leaders failing to negotiate and reach a deal. Most everyone either wants to spend our tax dollars like drunken professional athletes or hold our economy and financial markets hostage via a government shutdown and failure to raise the debt ceiling.
The Eight Principles of Value Investing
In any environment, but especially one characterized by uncertainty, eight principles of investing are critical. These bedrock beliefs help guide our thinking at the levels of asset allocation, security selection and identification of the third-party managers we engage to help manage our clients’ assets.
Putin's Gambit
Earlier this month, President Obama found himself in a very difficult position regarding Syria. An ill-advised comment about making the use of chemical weapons a red line forced a response when the weapons were clearly used in Syria. The administration began moving toward a military response. However, support for military operations was lacking both domestically and internationally. The clearest signal of this opposition was the British Parliaments vote to prevent P.M. Cameron from authorizing military action in support of the expected U.S. military strike.
Fourth Quarter Outlook: A Turning Point?
It seems sometimes that the outlook for the global economy and the markets has been unchanged for years. Since the end of the recession, each year has commenced with forecasts that the United States economy would break out of its below-trend growth mode, only to see expectations dashed. Meanwhile, Europe has been mired in its own recession as it struggles with heavy post-crisis debt burdens. Growth has slowed in the emerging markets, ending the commodity boom of the first decade of this century.
Congress Holds Equities Hostage
by Bob Doll of Nuveen Asset Management,
U.S. equity advances ended last week and the S&P 500 declined -1.0%.1 Markets appeared concerned about overbought conditions from a strong run up over the past three weeks and uneasy about Federal Reserve (Fed) monetary policy normalization as well as the credibility of its communication strategy. Other widespread reasons for the downturn included increased focus on the fiscal battles in Washington, D.C., heightened worries about a possible near-term government shutdown and the contentious debt ceiling debate.
Bridging the Gap: Global Listed Infrastructure
Simply spreading your investments across a smattering of asset classes with the idea that diversification should automatically produce a positive result is an approach thats maybe a little too similar to a roll of the dice. For investors hunting for classes to diversify into, Wilson Magee, Director of Global Real Estate and Infrastructure Securities, Franklin Templeton Real Asset Advisors, and co-manager of Franklin Global Listed Infrastructure Fund, has one word: infrastructure.
Don't Cry for Me, Ben Bernanke
by Simon Johnson of Project Syndicate,
The Federal Reserve will decide on monetary policy for the US based primarily on US conditions. Economic policymakers elsewhere who are pleading for a postponement of US monetary tightening should understand this hard reality and prepare accordingly.
The Weekly Speculator
by Michael Shaoul, Ranita Ragunathan, Timothy Brackett, Brendan Moynihan of Marketfield Asset Management,
We wrote last week on the eve of the FOMC meeting which resulted in the surprising decision not to reduce the current program of treasury and mortgage security purchases. What was to our eyes equally surprising was the volume and strident tone of the commentary that was issued following this release, ranging from the arrogant to the outraged as if anything really meaningful had changed.
Achievement Awards Announced at the 2013 Insiders Forum Conference and Leadership Forum
by Bob Veres,
The first annual Insiders Forum conference attracted more than its share of industry leaders. But two of its more prominent attendees received special recognition for their contributions to the financial planning/investment advisory profession.
Celebrate with Tokyo
by Kenichi Amaki of Matthews Asia,
Many in Tokyo erupted with delight and excitement following the recent news of the citys selection as host to the 2020 Summer Olympic Games. Following a failed bid in 2016, Tokyo edged out rivals Istanbul and Madrid on its way to becoming the first Asian city to host the Games for a second time.
Secular Trends in Asian Credit Markets Shape Long-Term Investment Themes
by Robert Mead, Raja Mukherji of PIMCO,
The next several years will likely see many Asian corporate issuers to come to the market for financing, whether to pursue long-term business plans or to employ traditional corporate finance and leverage strategies. Rigorous credit research, flexible resources, experienced local portfolio management and strong relationships with local stakeholders are all crucial to uncovering attractive opportunities while monitoring volatility in Asias credit markets.
And That's the Week That Was
by Ron Brounes of Brounes & Associates,
Hail the Almighty Fed. Despite a rather hectic week on the economic calendar, investors instead focused primarily on news from the Federal Reserve. They rejoiced the end of Summers campaign for Chair and further rejoiced another Fed meeting with far more words than action. The week ended with profit-taking and plenty of uncertainty heading into the homestretch of the year.
Aberdeen Global Investment Outlook: September 2013
by Mike Turner of abrdn,
The point of maximum policy accommodation may now be in sight:
Markets volatile as investors forced to contemplate U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) exit strategy.
Slowing growth in China is putting pressure on Asian and emerging markets to develop domestic led demand.
This time really could be different for Japan - however reflating the economy was never going to be easy.
India's Need for Labor Reform
by Siddharth Bhargava of Matthews Asia,
India has long been recognized as a country of vast potential. With over 1.2 billion people, it boasts nearly one-fifth of the worlds working age population. However, the countrys laws hark back to a period when Indias political philosophy was still rooted in socialisma time when the government ran its own factories. Such laws have failed to keep pace with the economic liberalization program that began in 1991.
Growth and Rising Stars
by Mark Kiesel of PIMCO,
While developed market growth in several regions is picking up cyclically from low levels, overall global economic growth should remain subdued over the next several years. We believe credit spread tightening and rating upgrades are most likely for specific companies in industries and areas with strong growth. We see these "rising star" companies in the U.S. and European auto sector, the gaming, energy and chemical industries and in sectors tied to the U.S. housing market.
Russia is Tough to Love, Easier to Hate, Hard for Investors to Ignore. Here's Why
Russian President Vladimir Putin created a stir recently when he shared his thoughts with Americans in an op-ed printed in The New York Times. According to The Times, very few pieces written by heads of state have been published by the paper and very few received the attention Putin attracted.
Trumping Cheap Labor
by Teresa Kong of Matthews Asia,
Wages in China have surely risen, and some pundits argue that this growth will eventually make the country less competitive. But more nuanced and recent theories suggest that manufacturing centers can cluster around pools of more skilled labor, transportation networks and economies of scale. This month, Teresa Kong, CFA, examines the reasons why China is about more than just low-cost workers.
Pacific Basin Market Overview August 2013
by Team of Nomura Asset Management,
Asian equity markets ended lower in August, chiefly due to concerns about currency weakness in India and Indonesia, while improved macroeconomic data from China contributed to this markets outperformance. The MSCI AC Asia Pacific Free Index including Japan fell by 1.3% while the MSCI AC Asia Pacific ex Japan Free Index closed 0.71% lower during the month. (All performance figures are based on MSCI indices in U.S. dollar terms with dividends included unless otherwise stated.)
September Investment Bulletin: Global Equity Strategy
by Team of Bedlam Asset Management,
Year-to-date end-August the strategy performed well with a gain of 22.2% vs. 14.6% for the benchmark. During the month, the index tumbled 3.9%, partly out of fear of foreign military action in Syria and partly that central banks would cease printing money to hold down interest rates commonly known as tapering. Even so, the portfolio held up in August, with a much lesser 2.4% fall, thereby further widening outperformance over the index to 760 basis points so far in 2013.
Open for Business Down Under
by Kenneth Lowe of Matthews Asia,
Swiftly after fighting off what most observers deemed to be a fairly weak incumbent Labor opposition in the recent Australian election, the leader of the Conservative coalition and the countrys newly crowned Prime Minister, Tony Abbott, firmly declared Australia to be once more open for business."
Opportunity Out of Uncertainty: Finding Investment Ideas in a Rising Market
by Jay Kaplan of The Royce Funds,
Portfolio Manager and Principal Jay Kaplan talks about investing in a slow-growth, high-price environment and discusses where we are in the current retail cycle, companies in which he has high confidence, and his experience with a long-term holding.
Absolute Return Letter: A Case of Broken BRICS?
EM currencies, stocks and bonds have struggled since the Fed signalled its intent to change course in late May. This has seemingly triggered an exodus of speculative capital from emerging markets but, as is always the case, there is more to the story than that. EM countries (ex. China) no longer run a current account surplus with the rest of the world, and this hurts global liquidity. It is not yet a re-run of the 1997-98 Asian crisis, but it has the potential to become one with all sorts of consequences for bond yields in developed markets, currency wars, etc.
Results 3,751–3,800
of 4,282 found.
