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President Obama's 2016 Federal Budget Proposal
by Tim Steffen,
Both parties are focused on passing some type of tax reform this year, and in order to do that Republicans will likely have to concede on at least some of the president's wishes. Which of those may survive remains to be seen, but it's now up to the Republicans in Congress to respond with a proposal of their own.
What Does That Difference Mean?
by John Hussman of Hussman Funds,
The difference between actual market returns over a given time period, and the returns that one would have projected earlier based on reliable valuation measures, is extremely informative about where current valuations stand, and about where future market returns are headed.
Weighing the Week Ahead: Is Good News Now Bad for Investors?
Anyone who wants to speculate on what the Fed is thinking must include some actual evidence from past transcripts. If, for example, you want to suggest that the Fed “wants a market correction” (you can’t make this stuff up) then you have to find at least one historical example where some participant raised that idea. Otherwise, shut up!
The Conference
by Jeffrey Saut of Raymond James,
Greetings from Orlando where the Raymond James 36th Annual Institutional Investors Conference is in full swing. At this year’s conference there will be more than 1,000 portfolio managers (PMs) and analysts, as well as more than 300 companies presenting. In a past life I used to attend many of Wall Street’s institutional investors conferences, but have come to like ours the best.
States Feel Impact of Oil Price Collapse
Crude oil prices have fallen sharply since last summer, a bright spot for American consumers. Major oil-producing states aren’t as happy, because the loss in tax revenue is impacting budgets and economies. Some states will face real hardship; others will emerge relatively unscathed.
The Herd Can Be Blind
by Peter Schiff of Euro Pacific Capital,
Going into 2015 the economic outlook held by the U.S. investment establishment could not have been much more positive, and more unified. Pundits saw all the variables aligning to create the best of all investment worlds, a virtual "no-brainer" of optimism. Many believed that the 5.0% annualized growth in 3rd quarter would stay strong in the 4th Quarter and then usher in a strong 2015, which many believed would be the best economic year since the crash of 2008. The only question that divided most forecasters was how good the year would be.
Weighing the Week Ahead: Will the Economic News Alter Fed Policy?
The exact timing of the first Fed rate increase does not matter. There is a difference between tight monetary policy and slightly less accommodative policy. Markets do quite well in the early stages of rising rates, especially when starting from a low initial point. This will be ignored by many who will invoke “Don’t fight the Fed.” This will be the fundamental battleground between traders and investors, bears and bulls, and various political types – perhaps lasting for years. The end of the business or stock market cycle is not imminent. Bull markets do not die of old age.
Monetary Policy Matters
This year we expect the divergence in monetary policy among the world’s central banks to be a key theme and a likely driver of asset flows. For now, the scorecard seems to be tilted toward monetary easing since in the first month of 2015 alone, 14 central banks engaged in some form of monetary policy loosening, generally in the form of interest rate cuts or asset purchases.
An In-Depth Look at the Sequoia Fund
by Larry Swedroe,
Looking at its 35-year track record, some now consider the Sequoia Fund (SEQUX) an anomaly; it is an actively managed fund that has persistently generated positive risk-adjusted returns, outperforming its peers and its benchmark. Should investors expect this outperformance to persist?
On My Radar: A $9 Trillion Dollar Crisis
Here is the main point of today’s OMR: According to the Bank of International Settlements, non-bank borrowers outside the U.S. have borrowed, in dollars, $9 trillion. This is an increase of $4.5 trillion since the financial crisis and it places that $9 trillion on the wrong side of the dollar bet. The dollar debt is an example of how the Fed’s tightening will impact the world economy. This is a pressure cooker and the pot is starting to boil.
Weighing the Week Ahead: Help for the Economy from Housing?
The economic calendar includes much more housing data than we normally see in a single week. With Fed Chair Yellen’s Congressional testimony and the GDP revisions also on tap, I expect many observers to be linking these topics. They will ask:
High Yield in a Rising Rate Environment: Duration and Yield
by Heather Rupp of AdvisorShares,
We began February with a yield on the 10-year Treasury of 1.68% and today sit at 2.14%.1All the concerns and talk of maybe even no rate rise this year that we saw in January, have turned to frequent mention of a rate rise beginning in June. So what are bond investors to do? Is this finally the year of rising rates and what impact does that have?
On My Radar: Schumpeter’s Creative Destruction
This week let’s take a look at debt around the globe. I share a great piece from McKinsey & Company that shows just how much more debt, county by country, has been piled on since the 2007 debt induced financial crisis. Evidence is apparent in the commodity market and I also share a few ideas how you may risk manage those allocations.
Can Trees Really Grow to the Sky?
by Jeffrey Saut of Raymond James,
I stopped my rental car in the middle of a cluster of giant sequoia trees while driving to one of my speaking engagements in northern California last week. I have always been overwhelmed with these beautiful “beasts” and last week was no exception. As I lay supine at the base of the behemoth the visual fallacy actually made it look like this monster was indeed growing to the sky. The surreal sensation brought to mind the old stock market axiom, “Trees don’t grow to the sky!”
From Russia with Love?
by Jeffrey Saut of Raymond James,
The big news late last week was German Chancellor Angela Merkel’s and French President Francois Hollande’s emergency trip to Russia for peace talks with President Putin. Obviously, the situation in the Ukraine is heating up again or such Herculean efforts would not be undertaken.
Investing Lessons from the Super Bowl
Super Bowl losing teams are usually quickly forgotten—consigned, as the expression goes, to history’s dustbin. In fact, some NFL historians and coaches have said that the losers of the semi-finals (conference title game) have often received more long-term recognition than the Super Bowl losers, for the simple reason they may have played the Super Bowl winner much tougher in the earlier round.
Greek Games
After the Syriza party won 149 of the 300 seats in the Jan. 24th Greek elections, European markets have been roiled by worries over another crisis developing. In this report, we use game theory to describe the situation between Greece and the EU/Germany/ECB. This method shows how misunderstandings can develop and how catastrophic mistakes are made. Using this structure, we will outline the positions and perceptions of both sides and describe how this situation could lead to another crisis. As always, we will finish with market ramifications.
Riding An Aging Bull (Market)
The year has begun in roller coaster fashion, and our team has been busy reading and digesting the many 2015 outlooks that come across our desks. But reading is the easy part, and now it’s our turn to distill the many facets of our process into a workable thesis that allows us to generate attractive risk-adjusted returns in this maturing market cycle.
The Eurozone: Collateral Damage
by John Mauldin of Mauldin Economics,
Now we're watching another Greek drama that could have significant unintended consequences – far beyond anything the market has priced in today. Then again, maybe not. Maybe the market is right this time. When we enter unknown territory, who knows what we will find? Fertile valleys and treasure, or deserts and devastation? Today we look at the situation in Europe and ponder what we don't know. Greece provides a wonderful learning opportunity.
The Absolute Return Letter - January 2015
by Team of Absolute Return Partners,
In large parts of the financial community there is a strongly held belief that the problems which caused the credit crisis back in 2008-09 have never been properly addressed, causing many to suspect that it is only a matter of time before the ‘end game’ is upon us – the credit crisis Mk. II so to speak. I will in the following pages look at various ways the end game might unfold but, before I do so, I shall return to one of the subjects I discussed in the January letter – the end of cheap oil – which caused a flurry of comments and questions.
Facing Reality by Questioning Some Common Beliefs
by Ron Surz,
I've decided to do something different in this quarterly commentary. I begin as usual with a review of first quarter market performance. Then I turn my attention to some commonly held beliefs that I regard as mistaken, as shown in the figure below.
Weighing the Week Ahead: Will the data deluge signal economic weakness?
This is a landslide week for economic data, and earnings season is in full swing. Last week’s Q4 GDP report and overall market tone has revived deflation concerns. I expect market participants to be watching each economic release closely, asking: Are there signs of incipient economic weakness?
The Unintended Consequences of "Sophisticated" Performance Measurement
Sicart believes a measure of investment success should encompass "several cycles, with bull and bear markets as well as many fads and fashions and their aftermaths." He notes that "economic events really progress at a near-tectonic pace," so "a quarter or even a year is almost always a totally irrelevant period."
Municipal Market Update: What's Ahead in 2015
Municipal bonds ended 2014 as one of the best-performing asset classes - buoyed by investors’ search for yield in a low interest-rate environment. For 2015, we are positioned cautiously for greater volatility in the fixed income markets. We currently prefer revenue-backed bonds over most general obligation (GO) debt, as these sectors typically benefit from dedicated revenue streams and do not have the pension challenges that many state and local governments face.
The Road Back, and Ahead
by Scott Brown of Raymond James,
The U.S. economy data are likely to be mixed in the near term, but there is little doubt that we are gathering steam. The plunge in gasoline prices is an enormous tailwind. However, this isn?t just an energy story. The fundamentals are getting better.
Global Economic Perspective: January
by Christopher Molumphy, Michael Materasso, Roger Bayston, Michael Hasenstab, John Beck of Franklin Templeton Investments,
After a much better-than-expected annualized growth rate of 5% in the third quarter of 2014, the stars would seem to be fairly much aligned for continued US growth in the months ahead. Job growth has continued apace, interest rates and energy prices have remained low, and consumer and business confidence has been buoyant. As we start the new year, the main areas of uncertainty would seem to be the pace of growth and the implications of recent price and employment trends for the timing of monetary tightening by the US Federal Reserve (Fed).
Looking Back at James Montier's "Perfect" Value Investors
by Larry Swedroe,
Is there such a thing as a "perfect" value investor? And if so, what does that investor's fund look like? James Montier thought he knew the answers when he penned his 2006 article "The Perfect Value Investor." Let's look back and see how that portfolio did.
Key Issues for 2015: The View from Western Asset
The U.S. represents a bright spot in a global recovery best characterized as "two steps forward, one step back." Sector and issue selection remain crucial in this environment, but so do macroeconomic strategies, which may help provide ballast when the pace of recovery slows.
Time to Get Off the Merry-Go-Round ??
by Jerome Schneider of PIMCO,
In 2014, many investors de-risked their portfolios by moving into shorter-duration passive approaches but the potential for capital preservation from these strategies may face challenges. Passive benchmarks and strategies with pre-specified, structural interest rate exposure may have little to no flexibility around their positioning and may push investors into the heart of the proverbial storm. Active strategies not constrained by benchmark limitations may be optimal for investors as they can seek to manage exposure to interest rates.
Equity Investment Outlook: More of the Same
by Team of Osterweis Capital Management,
We are of the view that the conditions for further gains in the bull market that began in early 2009 are still intact and that the conditions for a true bear market are not. The market could, of course, be subject to corrections ? it always is ? but we believe the trend is still upward.
Fixed Income Investment Outlook: 2014 is Over. Long Live 2014!
by Team of Osterweis Capital Management,
We believe that at current yields there is no investment grade ?fat pitch? at this time. Our focus remains on keeping duration short and layering-in higher yielding paper, especially on sharp corrections in markets like we have seen recently. We believe that the appropriate time to take a swing at investment grade bonds will be when yields are much higher and the economy is teetering towards recession.
Weekly Market Summary
by Urban Carmel of The Fat Pitch,
It's safe to say that US indices have been acting very differently over the past two months than they have at any other time in the past 3 years. This oscillating pattern of sharp falls and rebounds suggests equities are searching for direction. In the past 5 years, this has been a prelude to a change in trend.
Winter Quarterly Commentary
Last year, Legos hit the big screen. In ?The LEGO Movie?, as those of you with children are more likely to be aware, a Lego mini-figure named Emmet Brickowski and his allies save the universe from the clutches of the evil Lord Business. Victory in hand, our Lego friends then party, to the tune ?Everything is Awesome?. And indeed, here too in our more mundane real world...everything is awesome!
U.S. Lodging: The Recovery Checks In for an Extended Stay
by Ray Huang, Amit Arora of PIMCO,
Relatively high occupancy levels should drive room rate growth in the hotel sector over the next several years, despite some supply entering the market. We see opportunities in certain segments, such as premium hotels and C-corporations, due to high barriers to entry and pricing power.
Rocky Horror Picture Show
by Jeffrey Saut of Raymond James,
?Rocky Horror Picture Show? was a satirical film production done as a tribute to the science and horror ?B? movies of the late 1930s through the 1970s. I was reminded of the flick last week when one portfolio manager I saw in Fort Lauderdale said to me, ?The first few weeks of the New Year have been an absolute horror show!?
Tocqueville Gold Strategy Investor Letter: Year End 2014
John Hathaway, manager of the Tocqueville Gold Fund (TGLDX), looks back at the performance of gold over 2014, noting that: "in dollar terms gold declined 1.7 percent, but?it posted solid gains against all other currencies," and that "the dollar?s strength relative to other currencies has camouflaged the strength of gold."
Results 2,851–2,900
of 3,702 found.
