September has historically been one of the weakest months for the S&P 500. The momentum factor, on the other hand, has historically been very strong in September.
The legendary fund manager, Bob Rodriguez, doesn’t like either stocks or bonds, but he explains the particular strategy he is pursuing for buying hard assets.
The unintended consequences from recent Fed “policy” changes, not to mention those initiated in prior decades, have been at the very epicenter of some of the national problems we have. The Fed would vigorously deny this course, but the results are plain for all to see.
There are technical distinctions between investing versus speculating. Nevertheless, both concepts are often thought about or utilized interchangeably. Moreover, there are nuanced distinctions between a rational or well-thought-out speculation versus outright gambling.
With US elections about two months away, investors are intensifying their focus on the presidential and congressional contests. Historically, political transitions haven’t had much impact on the economy and markets, but this time could be different.
Too soon for a new credit card giving users 5% cash back on travel? JPMorgan Chase doesn’t think so.
In a new quarterly letter to GMO clients, head of asset allocation Ben Inker highlights the sea change in the utility of government bonds and Matt Kadnar, member of GMO’s Asset Allocation team, weighs in on today’s low bond yields.
The data used to measure a company’s compliance with ESG guidelines is inconsistent and leads to misleading results. Moreover, when teams at the same company manage comparable ESG and non-ESG funds, the former more often underperforms the latter.
We have a big week for economic data with the emphasis on employment. With reports on jobless claims, ADP employment, and the official employment situation report all hitting right before Labor Day, we can be sure it will be a big topic. Throw in the election campaigning and we can expect jobs to be the theme of the week.
It’s a tale of two bull markets. One part of the market is trading as you would expect with near depressionary economic numbers. The only description for the other part is “insane.”
Global Business Mobility, defined as GDP-weighted Google geolocation data of workplace less residential mobility for the 24 largest economies in the world, representing over two-thirds of global GDP, remains in decline despite a recent uptick.
Capital markets have rebounded from their COVID-19-induced lows, but impacted industries have lagged substantially. That pessimism may be overdone in some cases, creating opportunities for multi-asset investors to exploit dislocations.
A leading psychologist explains why more women aren’t in leadership roles in financial services.
While a panoramic view of broader economic and market developments will always be a crucial shot when constructing our outlook, sometimes it is important for us to bring certain sectors into focus.
Assessing a company’s ESG behavior is a qualitative, subjective undertaking. New studies show that the major firms that issue ESG “ratings” use sufficiently different criteria, which results in unreliable research findings when their databases are used.
This depression/recession is unlike any we have experienced. Parts of our economy are doing well, parts are in recession, and a significant portion is already in a depression. As government guarantees wane in the future, more and more companies and people will slip into the depression category.
Research Affiliates discusses the increase in portfolio tactical shifts and recent research efforts supporting the All Asset strategies in today’s evolving investment environment.
There are numerous factors which can cause the price of gold to rise significantly, but I don’t believe inflation fears are the main driver behind gold’s recent surge. I believe it has much more to do with uncertainty and fears surrounding the COVID-19 pandemic. But I’m getting ahead of myself.
Prospects find your firm’s website with a Google search such as, “financial advisor near me.” But what happens when you’re not showing up in those searches?
Factor-driven investing, while highly popular among equity investors, has not been as widely adopted in the bond market. But research shows that a factor-based approach to bond investing is superior to attempting to identify top-performing active bond managers.
Everybody is wondering how the stock market can be so high while the U.S. economy is so low. But you don’t hear the same rumbling concerns about the bond market – even though something very similar to ultra-high P/Es is going on in the fixed income side of your portfolio.
When it comes down to it, there are a few key macro variables that are highly correlated with the relative performance of value vs growth – most of them measuring the reflationary impulse in the system in different ways.
The price of gold had its first down week since early June, ending a spectacular nine-week rally. The yellow metal briefly fell below $1,900 an ounce on Wednesday as stocks neared their all-time closing high and the 10-year Treasury yield jumped on record supply.
Some of the most reluctant money managers on Wall Street are finally ready to embrace exchange-traded funds.
In recent months, investment-grade debt has experienced a ferocious rally. What’s next?
This week we drill down on the trends in the US equity market as the SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY) puts the February highs in its sights. The trends across the major market ETFs remain to the upside.
The massive pullback in business travel is apt to inflict the deepest economic pain, but there's also a growing risk that older travelers, a mainstay of tourism, will hunker down for years to come.
Non-profit endowments, particularly those of elite academic institutions, have failed to deliver investment outperformance. Those colleges and universities have significantly underperformed a passive benchmark on an absolute and risk-adjusted basis.
To scale your business, you can’t rely on your personality alone to carry you through; you need to intentionally and systematically make sure more of your ideal prospects have the opportunity to get to know, like, and trust you every day.
Some emerging markets have been coping with the COVID-19 crisis better than others, and their economies are in different stages of recovery. Our emerging markets equity team highlights a few—and offers thoughts on why the pandemic has accelerated some existing fundamental and technological trends.
The July labor market report had talking points for both the economic bulls and bears; with Congress on the hot seat to keep the recovery from faltering.
Nonfarm payrolls rose about as expected in the initial estimate for July, even as economists’ forecasts were widespread and risks to their job outlooks were generally seen to the downside. The unemployment rate fell a bit more than anticipated, but labor force participation stalled.
One explanation for the underperformance of the value factor has been that the growing importance of intangibles, and the failure of the accounting system to record their value on financial statements, renders value measures anchored to current financial statements, such as book value, useless. New research shows how to address this failure.
Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities can help protect your portfolio against rising inflation, but there are nuances you should understand.
Already, apartment rents are plunging in cities such as San Francisco, Seattle and New York. But a significant constraint is going to be how much out-of-the-way communities are willing or able to grow.
The Loomis Sayles Alpha Strategies Team answers three questions on corporate health, regime models and opportunities in emerging markets.
I give these brilliant investment strategies a failing grade.
Several equity factors diverged significantly from their typical performance patterns during the COVID-19 crisis. By understanding how factor returns behaved in this market correction relative to their historic norms, investors can not only prepare for future volatility but also take advantage of short-term market dislocations.
Loomis Sayles Portfolio Manager Ashish Chugh provides an update on emerging market equities and the impact COVID-19 has had on them recently.
About two-thirds of this month’s comment is about COVID-19 and the risk of a second wave. This is not only for the sake of public health, which would be enough, and not only to contribute to a better understanding of the epidemic.
The U.S. dollar has fallen by about 7% against a broad basket of currencies since its mid-March peak. After a nearly decade-long bull market that saw it appreciate by more than 40%, we believe the dollar could be headed for a longer-term decline.
As you’re probably aware by now, spot gold is trading at an all-time high in nominal terms, having recently hit $1,977 an ounce. Futures touched $2,000 for the first time ever.
Americans are working longer for financial reasons – they can’t afford to retire. But what few realize are the enormous economic and social benefits that accrue to those workers and the companies they serve.
Our Fixed Income CIO Sonal Desai unveils the first insights from the new Franklin Templeton–Gallup research project on the behavioral response to the COVID-19 pandemic and implications for the recovery.
We face an important economic calendar and earnings reports from 192 companies in the S&P 500. We will get important data on sentiment, personal income and spending, housing, employment claims, inflation, manufacturing.
Ultimately, we believe that investors who are unaware of ESG and do not integrate ESG into their investment processes may be exposing themselves to additional, unnecessary and possibly unrewarded risks.
Markets rebounded during the second quarter, aided by monumental support from the Fed. We expect the economy to continue improving, but given the recent wave of Covid cases we also expect some bumps along the way.
Investors increasingly want to align their financial goals with a commitment to improving the lives of others. Two recent projects showcase how municipal bond investors are making an impact.
We’ll start with a dozen or so charts showing the market is either very highly valued, or extremely overvalued, or merely stretched. But in general, you will see markets are indeed at the upper end of historical valuations. Then we’ll consider some reasons why this is so, and why stocks could even go higher.
Investors must balance ongoing risks of the coronavirus against the extra yield the bonds provide.
