Jeremy Siegel almost never gives a one-year forecast for stocks, but last week he predicted that U.S. equities will end the year with gains of as much as 10%. That may seem meager for investors who have benefited from double-digit gains in seven of the last nine years, but Siegel said this year will be far better for stocks than it will be for bonds.
It is with mixed emotions that I’m leaving Franklin Templeton Investments, but I’m excited about the next chapter of my life and what the future will bring. It’s been a bittersweet whirlwind of activity after I announced plans to retire after more than 30 years with the company.
Disruption was definitely top of mind during many of the presentations and interviews at Inside ETFs, including that of producer and composer Quincy Jones, who was at the conference to promote a new stock index that tracks music and entertainment companies
Earlier this month, the Loomis Sayles sector teams published their 2018 outlook. Here's a snapshot of what our investment grade and high yield sector teams are anticipating this year.
Nominal growth is likely to pick up, reflecting some recovery in real GDP and a gradual rise in inflation.
Many investors think that this bull market and economic expansion have gone on long enough and a bear market and a recession will take place soon. In my view, we have at least a year or two before the next major downturn in either the market or the economy, barring a major geopolitical conflict such as a shooting war with North Korea, Russia or Iran.
The ETF Investment Strategy surveys key risks around the globe including trade policy, geopolitical tensions and reform efforts.
Imagine this: Rising interest rates and reduced foreign capital flows combine to push housing prices down in places like Vancouver. Leveraged players who own speculative homes start to liquidate their properties, pushing prices down further. Banks find themselves holding properties they neither need nor want. The dominoes begin to topple.
Our current positioning reflects the following beliefs: Many of 2017’s positive economic tailwinds should continue in 2018, setting the stage for additional upside in stocks and other equity-sensitive assets, including convertible securities and high yield bonds.
As many of you may be aware by now, I announced plans to retire after more than 30 years with Franklin Templeton Investments, effective January 31, 2018. Before I share my final, parting words on this forum, I’d like to take a look back at how emerging markets have changed since I first began investing in the space.
Since the dawn of time music has played a pivotal role in the defining of the times and the progression made. We would like to utilize the artistic genius of these maestros to bring some context to the current pivotal point in the economy and capital markets.
Templeton Emerging Markets Group has a wide investment universe to cover—tens of thousands of companies in markets on nearly every continent. While we are bottom-up investors, we also take into account big-picture context.
Here we are, nearly three times the level at which I expect the S&P 500 to complete this cycle. Yet our immediate outlook remains neutral (though tail-risk hedges remain appropriate). It’s essential to distinguish between valuations, which have long-term implications, and market internals, which have implications for shorter segments of the market cycle.
Domestic stocks were a great place to invest in 2017, but hopefully you didn’t overlook opportunities overseas. Emerging markets had a gangbusters year, surging more than 37.5 percent with dividends reinvested, as measured by the MSCI Emerging Markets Index.
This week and next we’ll look at forecasts from some of my most trusted friends and colleagues.
Shares of some large-capitalization tech companies in Asia have delivered strong performance so far this year, driving up the tech sector weighting relative to the broader market. Do these types of stocks represent the best opportunities in Asia’s tech sector right now?
The fourth quarter of 2017 closely resembled much of the first three quarters – global markets continued to grow steadily, resulting in positive returns for many strategic domestic and global equity investors.
John Hathaway, manager of the Tocqueville Gold Fund (TGLDX) writes in his Q4 investor letter that “cryptocurrencies attempt to mimic one of the key attributes of gold: a liquid real asset with no counterparty risk. We view cryptocurrencies as contributors, and possibly as accelerants, to the long-term undermining of all paper currencies. We see them as allies of gold and threats to fiat currency, not as an existential threat to the metal, as they have been so frequently portrayed.”
Our stable of investment strategies at HWM has never been more diversified than it is today. In the last few years, we have significantly expanded the scope of the investments we recommend, including several successful strategies that do not involve stocks or bonds.
Blackstone is pleased to offer the following Market Commentary by Byron Wien which shares his thinking on global economic developments, market insights and other factors that may influence investment opportunities and strategies.
As we head into the New Year, I want to share with you the five most popular Frank Talk posts of 2017. One common theme you’ll see in these posts is they all center on the topic of gold. Although we specialize in educating investors about gold and managing gold funds, it’s worth noting that our gold posts garnered more interest than our bitcoin and blockchain posts in this year of cryptocurrency craze.
I have been championing the case for emerging-market investing through many market ups and downs, but the task was a bit easier in 2017. Emerging markets (as measured by the MSCI Emerging Markets Index) saw a positive performance in 2017 and outperformed developed markets (as measured by the MSCI World Index) for a second year in a row.
Global stocks benefited from broad economic growth in 2017, and some forecasters expect growth next year to be slightly better. Yet Franklin Equity Group’s Coleen Barbeau thinks equity valuations, particularly in the US market, already reflect that rosy outlook.
With the year quickly coming to a close, it might be time to start thinking about rebalancing the gold holdings in your portfolio. That includes bullion, jewelry, gold stocks and well-managed gold funds—all of which I recommend giving a collective 10 percent weighting. Because it’s been such a strong year for stocks—they’ve advanced more than 20 percent as of today—it’s likely that most investors will need to add to their gold exposure to meet that 10 percent weighting as we head into 2018.
The holidays always prompt us to look both forward and back. Soon you’ll start seeing 2018 forecasts. I’ll review some of them for you and give you my own in the coming weeks. But first, I want to take a look back at 2017 – and do it a little differently.
Technological advancements over the past two decades have moved the idea of self-driving cars from the realm of science fiction to fact. Recently, Franklin Templeton Investments assembled a panel of professionals to discuss the competition between traditional vehicle manufacturers and technology companies in the race to develop a truly autonomous car.
Long-term interest rates remain stuck in a range that has defined the last six years. Russ discusses why 2018 may see more of the same.
Millennials are becoming a powerful force in emerging markets (EM). Understanding the social and consumer dynamics of this generation can lead to surprising investment opportunities in diverse sectors.
Investors are cautioned not to extrapolate 2017’s performance into 2018, and we expect more frequent bouts of volatility. The global bull market is intact, supported by solid global growth and strong corporate earnings. But with the expectations bar now set quite high heading into next year, pullbacks are increasingly possible. Discipline is important looking ahead.
At this time of the year, smog in Beijing, China, can be overwhelming. Throughout the city this fog/smog prevents the sun from shining through. But, the pollution problems have not clouded financial activity.
I veer from our usual roster of topics this week to bring you an update on China and its prospects for continued hot economic growth, or lack thereof. China is the second largest economy on the planet, behind the US, and many (if not most) Americans believe that it won’t be too long before China overtakes the US as the largest economy in the world.
The gradual reversal of expansionary monetary policies – at differing paces globally – will require some investors to adjust their approaches. Protecting purchasing power will remain a priority as official inflation understates real-world costs.
“Most people get interested in stocks when everyone else is,” Warren Buffett famously said. “The time to get interested is when no one else is.” The same logic applies to Christmas decorations, gold and mining stocks.
In a US Dollar bull market with interest rates at zero, cash is rightfully dismissed as a non-asset class. But, when the US Dollar is in a bear cycle, things change, irrespective of what US interest rates are.
Lately, investors have been focused on headlines about China’s twice-a-decade congress reshuffling, looking for signs of leadership changes to come in the world’s second-largest economy. But a different kind of leadership change in China is well underway – and investors should take note.
The U.S. economic expansion is now the third-longest on record. Does this mean a recession is looming? Senior Investment Strategist Paul Eitelman digs into the data and assesses the risks.
While emerging markets have been my area of focus for several decades, I also travel extensively to developed countries, too. It’s quite enlightening to see how once “emerging” countries still cherish their heritage.
Earlier this month, I shared with you a quote from Arnoud Balhuizen, chief commercial officer of BHP Billiton, the largest mining company in the world. In a September interview with Reuters, Balhuizen called 2017 the “revolution year [for electric vehicles], and copper is the metal of the future.”
The economic backdrop has remained supportive, both in the United States and globally, and should allow the US Federal Reserve (Fed) to continue raising interest rates at a measured pace, in our view. Jerome Powell’s nomination as Fed chair points to continuity in monetary policy in the near term...
As we look ahead to 2018, it’s important to first recognize how significant 2017 has been for international markets. This is the eighth year of a global bull market, but prior to 2017, international markets had trailed the US for four consecutive years — and for six of the last seven years.
The U.S. economy is shifting from reflation to inflation – and we have greater confidence in inflation returning to its medium-term trend and the Federal Reserve’s target. Better wage growth and potential fiscal stimulus should cement this transition.
In 2017, corporate credit, including high yield, saw a resurgence in interest within a longer-term trend of increasing supply. In recent weeks, however, it has shown some cracks.
In the concluding piece of our three-part series on principles of the low-return imperative, we discuss why we believe investors can no longer take on risks they don't expect to get paid for—and identify two key risks we see as unrewarded.
Nearly 10 years after the financial crisis brought the global economy to its knees, conditions have finally improved enough to crystallize my conviction that synchronized global growth is currently underway. Revenue and earnings growth are up year-over-year, not just in the U.S. but worldwide. Despite President Donald Trump threatening to raise tariffs and tear up trade deals, global trade is accelerating. World manufacturing activity expanded to a 78-month high of 53.5 in October, with faster rates recorded in new orders, exports, employment and input prices.
By 2040, the world will need to add the equivalent of India and China’s current energy system to meet the demands of a surging global population and rising incomes.
We’ve been arguing for the last year that US-based investors would be well served to overweight foreign versus domestic equities. In this post we’ll dig into that topic a little deeper to try to convey a few of the company specific fundamental drivers of our foreign vs domestic call, especially as they relate to one of our favorite markets: Japan.
My colleagues and I have been championing the message that emerging markets have changed—they are no longer just commodity plays. Old economic models are undergoing a transformation in many cases, opening up exciting new investment opportunities.
The U.S. is no longer fit to lead in global governance and that is driving a change in the world order. As a result, the coming decade will be vastly more unstable, according to Ian Bremmer.
Growth in the country's corporate debt load has finally leveled off this year as financial conditions and regulatory oversight tighten. That's good. But rebounding returns on incremental assets and common equity are even better.
Mohamed El-Erian says that investors have been “enticed to become increasingly exposed to historically illiquid asset class segments.” Here are the asset classes and ETFs that are most at risk.
