Despite a confluence of economic shocks in the first quarter, markets have held up remarkably well, but cracks appear to be forming beneath the surface.
Outside of energy commodities, capital markets posted a downbeat March as cross-asset volatility spiked in response to the outbreak of hostilities in the Mideast, and kicked off April in similar, choppy fashion before posting a swift bounce following last Wednesday’s two-week ceasefire agreement.
Yield curves exist for many products and can be interrelated, yet they also carry distinctive characteristics. Normally, long-term rates are higher than short-term rates because investors demand a higher return for lending money over longer periods. This arrangement would create an upward-sloping curve much like the Treasury curves displayed to the right.
The Middle East ceasefire sparked a relief rally last week as markets dialed back the risk of a deep, drawn‑out oil supply shock. Stocks have already erased much of the post-conflict drop. Bonds haven’t gotten the memo: Yields are still elevated, keeping a bit of extra term premium on the table.
For financial advisors, tax season should not be the only time to talk to clients about municipal bonds. However, with April 15 arriving this week, the timing is ideal to examine how muni bond ETFs are rapidly becoming a cornerstone of fixed-income allocations in 2026.
Over the last few weeks, we have published real-time market commentary as the correction proceeded. The goal was to help investors navigate the more dire outcomes promoted on social media. A largely unexpected outcome was that the S&P 500 outlook changed dramatically in a matter of days.
In this episode of ETF of the Week, Todd Rosenbluth, and Chuck Jaffe discuss why the Goldman Sachs Municipal Income ETF (GMUB) is a timely addition to portfolios. With tax season in full swing, Rosenbluth explains the unique appeal of municipal bonds, highlighting the historical tendency for these assets to perform well following the April 15th deadline
That article digs into the plumbing behind oil shocks and recession, and exposes why, over the years, I’ve learned to distrust the loudest voices in the room.
Dividend-paying stocks offer an effective hedge against inflation—as well as solid long-term return potential in other environments when actively sourced from the right parts of the market.
Ever since the pandemic – when surging housing demand collided with a decade of underbuilding – housing affordability has become an increasingly important political issue and a larger focus for policymakers.
Over the past year, markets have been shaped by rapid advances in AI, elevated geopolitical tensions – especially involving Iran – and persistent uncertainty around global trade. In environments like this, successful investing rarely comes from chasing headlines or reacting emotionally. It’s about discipline, staying anchored to fundamentals and executing a clear long‑term game plan.
Benefit Street Partners believes private credit has faced scrutiny recently and there are four horsemen of the apocalypse charging toward private credit investors, but three are phantoms. One, however, is real.
A ceasefire in the Middle East is the latest twist for investors who have grown increasingly reactive to each new headline. Volatility has surged: prior to the ceasefire, the VIX had roughly doubled this year and averaged 25 in March—about 67% above year-end levels—underscoring just how uncertain the path forward has been.
While recent market performance reflects optimism over potential geopolitical de-escalation, underlying economic data reveals a complex landscape of intensifying price pressures and cooling growth.
The general field called “credit” has seen massive innovation over the course of my career. An Oaktree colleague asked me about the developments that brought the credit sector to where it is today. I came up with the following list.
The traditional 60/40 portfolio is undergoing a structural renovation, but the fixed income sleeve is proving difficult to stabilize.
Bond traders held onto wagers that the Federal Reserve will lower interest rates once this year after data confirmed that US inflation quickened in March as the Iran war led to higher gasoline prices.
The first quarter of the year has offered an early reminder that markets rarely move in straight lines. After the extraordinary enthusiasm that carried investors through 2025, much of it centered on the promise of artificial intelligence, the new year has quickly reintroduced elements of uncertainty.
Energy-driven inflation and geopolitical risk increase the likelihood of higher-for-longer interest rates, which listed infrastructure has several mechanisms for passing through to earnings.
Discover how abrdn’s K-1 free ETF outpaced gold and the S&P 500 in March 2026 by providing broad, tax-efficient commodities exposure.
Global bonds surged Wednesday on news that the US and Iran had agreed to a ceasefire, pausing a war that roiled markets for weeks by delivering the worst oil shock in years.
Last month at the Exchange conference in Las Vegas, Anna Paglia, State Street Investment Management’s chief business officer, discussed how the firm’s private credit lineup came to be and how the firm sets about developing some of its products.
In this video, Chuck Carnevale (“Mr. Valuation”), co-founder of FAST Graphs, explains a simple and effective way to find high-quality stocks, even in an overvalued bull market.
Fixed income markets have faced a challenging stretch following the escalation of conflict in the Middle East. Sharply rising oil prices and renewed inflation concerns have pushed US Treasury yields higher, and municipal bonds have moved in tandem.
As strikes on Iran continue and the Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed, it’s clearly too early for market watchers to stop thinking about geopolitical risk.
The US-Iran conflict has altered Iran’s regional influence and, more broadly, has many other consequences. It pressures government relations as well as global and financial market trading.
Breakeven real rates can inform us how much of a total return portfolio’s realized risk premium would be required merely to catch up to the benefits of delayed claiming, arguably an inefficient use of the equity risk premium.
The war in Iran has been costly, in a number of ways. First and foremost, the humanitarian consequences have been substantial: the price paid by those in harm’s way is immeasurable.
Bond traders kicked off the week betting that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates on hold for the coming year, with the Treasuries market holding steady ahead of President Donald Trump’s extended deadline for Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz.
Markets often react sharply to geopolitical developments, but just as often, they overreact. Investors today are grappling with heightened global tensions, rising oil prices and uncertainty around central bank policy. The key question is whether these risks meaningfully alter the economic outlook or simply create short-term volatility.
March 2026 ETFs: Investors pivot to safety with $29B in short-term bonds and a record $5B in Energy as Tech faced a Q1 recalibration.
The stock market is looking past the sharp interest rate hikes priced by Europe’s bond market, risking losses for investors backing the wrong outcome.
Total return is the entire amount of income passed to an investor holding a particular security. It annualizes any price change plus any dividends or interest earned over time.
Less than two months ago, projections showed the US government on track to borrow some $2 trillion this year with budget deficits exceeding 5% of gross domestic product indefinitely. Since then, this dire outlook has worsened — thanks to the Supreme Court’s ruling on tariffs, the war with Iran, the prospect of slowing economic growth and rising interest rates.
Oil prices are the key transmission channel, and how far they rise and how long they remain elevated could shape the outlook for growth, inflation and policy, with implications for bond markets.
All eyes were turned toward the Middle East throughout the month of March, with the US and Israel’s ongoing conflict with Iran causing energy prices to surge. The closure of the Strait of Hormuz, alongside damage to energy infrastructure across the gulf region, caused crude to rise above $100 a barrel for the first time since 2022.
The fiat currency collapse narrative is one of the most emotionally satisfying arguments in all of financial punditry. It feels intellectually rigorous, draws on genuine history, and speaks to deep and legitimate anxieties about government overreach, monetary recklessness, and the long-term consequences of unlimited debt creation.
Jeff Buchbinder and Adam Turnquist explain why solid earnings, AI investment, and economic resilience underpin stocks, even as oil prices and volatility pressure markets.
The United Nations (UN) warns of a roughly US$4 trillion annual shortfall in financing for its sustainable development goals—a gap too large for the public sector to fill alone.
Stocks started the week on an upbeat note as the administration delayed a deadline to strike Iranian energy plants by five days, also announcing that the U.S. and Iran were in negotiations to end the conflict.
On paper, Super Micro Computer Inc. is the type of company that Wall Street can’t get enough of, with soaring sales, an enviable list of partners like Nvidia Corp. and its placement at the center of the artificial intelligence boom.
Given the rise in the 10-year Treasury yield and oil prices, the case for near-term Fed cuts has weakened materially. That is the key message from this market.
Get ready each week with high-conviction insights that go beyond media headlines.
Amid geopolitical uncertainty, dispersion across credit markets – rather than a broad risk-off move – has become the dominant investment signal.
Discover why Strait of Hormuz disruptions extend beyond oil, how supply shocks are transmitting into agriculture markets, and what third-order commodity effects may mean for portfolios.
Investors have no shortage of metrics to evaluate equities, but not all measures capture the same economic reality. In an environment defined by elevated capital spending and market concentration, earnings-based measures may not fully reflect how efficiently companies convert investment into cash.
For investors, understanding the full anatomy of fixed income is critical, not only to capture attractive risk-adjusted returns in today’s environment but also to appreciate its indispensable role in powering economic growth and financial stability.
Some of Wall Street’s biggest bond-fund managers say financial markets are underestimating the risk that the US war in Iran will cause a sharp slowdown in an already sputtering economy.
Sovereign bonds rose around the world as concern the Middle East conflict will derail global economic growth revived demand for beaten-down government debt.
Recent weeks have been a whirlwind of headlines centered on the Middle East conflict and rising oil and gas prices, particularly as the conflict enters its fourth full week.
