Let’s take a look at the most recent market valuations and what they are telling us about forward returns over the next ten years.

Central banks have reacted to the UK vote to exit the European Union, the most recent trigger of brief panic in markets, and tepid global growth with a series of forcible and coordinated actions, including further rate cuts, liquidity injections into the banking system, extended asset purchase programs, and, in the US, postponement of any interest rate increases.

As consensus grows on the prospect of lower asset class returns, investors are taking a fresh look at the potential consequences and solutions.

Saving for retirement: How well is the “median” U.S. family doing?

In one of the earlier articles in our series, we identified six distinct sources of competitive advantages. This is the fourth article and focuses on consumer preference as the source of a sustainable competitive advantage.

We are living in truly turbulent times. Police officers are being shot in the United States. A man drove a truck through a crowd and killed innocent children and others in the south of France. An attempted coup in Turkey has been followed by violent retaliation by the challenged leadership.

“Last week, market conditions joined the same tiny handful of extremes that defined the 1929, 1972, 1987, 2000 and 2007 market peaks.” – John P. Hussman, Ph.D.

Fixed-income isn't what it used to be. As the Wall Street Journal reports, the total amount of global government bonds that bear negative yields, meaning it costs you to have the government hold your money, has now climbed to a massive $13 trillion.

Since the 1990s, there has been a movement—a very, very small movement, and mostly foreign—to produce the data needed to evaluate the social responsibility of corporations, by integrating measures of their social responsibility into financial reporting.

This week’s calendar includes a big serving of data, an FOMC meeting, the Democratic convention, and plenty of earnings news. The financial media will be asking: What does the election mean for stocks?

There’s a field in one of our data sets that rarely sees much play, being driven primarily by only the most extreme combination of overvaluation, overbullish sentiment, and overbought conditions we’ve identified across history. It’s one of a variety of such syndromes we track, and I’ve simply labeled it “Bubble,” because with a single exception, this extreme variant has only emerged just before the worst market collapses in the past century.

One of the best reads for me this week came from the creative pen of Danielle DiMartino Booth.  She was an analyst at the Dallas Federal Reserve for Richard Fisher and, boy, do I admire her wit and moxie.

How to pick smart-beta strategies using methods similar to those for selecting active managers.

Leading up to this past month, the focus of the capital markets was on global economic growth, the weakened condition of the European banking sector and the potential improvement in domestic earnings. The general wait-and-see attitude of the recent initiatives to stimulate economic growth in Japan and Europe combined with signs of improvement in China’s economy helped to provide some stability to equity trading levels. Yet, at the same time investors were trying to digest negative interest rates in Germany, Denmark, Switzerland, Sweden and Japan.

From a long-term and full-cycle perspective, the most reliable valuation measures we follow - those with the strongest correlation with actual subsequent stock market returns across history - are consistent with roughly zero S&P 500 nominal total returns on a 10-12 year horizon, and the likelihood of an interim market loss of about 40-55% over the completion of the current cycle.

We have four interns this summer and today I took them to lunch.  One asked what I wrote about today.  I said the title of the piece is, “I Don’t Know How to Love Him” and, of course, they gave me a funny look.

This week’s calendar includes a light schedule for data with an emphasis on housing. Earnings season is in full swing with important reports every day. The early reception has been surprisingly good, creating plenty of mystified pundits. The financial media will be asking: What Can Derail the Rally in Stocks?

A flurry of good news lifted airline stocks higher this week, reversing a drop in altitude that’s weighed on the industry so far in 2016. Fueled primarily by a bullish report from Deutsche Bank, American Airlines, Delta Air Lines and United Continental collectively advanced 6.5 percent on Tuesday alone. The German bank’s all-clear signal halted a six-month slide on overcapacity, Brexit uncertainty and heightened fears of global terrorism.

One of the most important indicators of the overly ebullient sentiment in the U.S. equity markets is the sudden acceleration of assets moving toward passive strategies like Index Funds and Smart Beta (which we contend is an oxymoron like jumbo shrimp…).

Many a spring and summer outdoor celebration culminates in a tug of war. It is where an equal number of folks hold onto each end of a long rope and seek to pull the other side across the midpoint line. We believe a tug of war has existed in the US stock market over the last year between two forces which have been pretty equal in force while pulling in opposite directions.

Real per capita GDP has risen by a paltry 1.3% annualized since the current expansion began in 2009. This is less than half of the 2.7% average expansion since the records began in 1790. One of the most persistent impediments to growth has been the drag from fiscal policy, a constraint that is likely to become even more severe in the next decade. The standard of living, or real median household income, has only declined in the 2009-2016 expansion and stands at the same level reached in 1996.

Perhaps the most important step that emerging markets have taken to reduce their vulnerability to financial crises is the remarkable deepening of domestic financial markets over the past decade. In many countries, the development of a reliable domestic investor base has benefited from the rise of a broad middle class.

Generally speaking, the Brexit event actually brightens our view of emerging markets and the investment potential we see for the long term.

On June 23rd, voters in the U.K. shocked global markets by voting to leave the EU. In this report, we will examine the various paths the country may take in the coming months with regard to this issue, discuss the political lessons learned and the impact Brexit will have on other European nations. As always, we will conclude with the potential impact on markets.

In spite of the many short-term market-moving events, the underlying economy has remained largely unchanged over the past five years. Each crisis has passed without the more pessimistic predictions becoming reality. And the global economy has continued to be stuck in low gear regardless of the unprecedented amount of central-bank stimulus—whether that stimulus has been quantitative easing, operation twist or negative interest rates. So from my perspective, we’ve been witnessing the wisdom of that old adage, “The more things change, the more they stay the same.”

The global economic outlook has experienced a downward shock in recent weeks, largely as a result of the “Brexit” referendum where British citizens voted to exit the European Union, coupled with deterioration in China that has led it to accelerate the depreciation of its currency. That combined deterioration, coupled with expectations of further central bank easing, has resulted in a plunge in global interest rates, with $20 trillion of government debt (primarily in Japan and Europe) now sporting negative yields. The plunge in yields has also affected U.S. Treasury securities, where the 10-year Treasury bond yield dropped as low as 1.32% last week. This advance in asset prices isn’t a reflection of economic health. To the contrary, it is a yield-seeking race to the bottom resulting from a downward shock to the global economy.

This week’s calendar includes a pretty normal schedule, but not the most important economic reports. There will be an abundance of FedSpeak, with questions about last Friday’s employment data. Despite this, the real story will be the start of earnings season. Expectations are pretty low. Statements about the outlook are always important, but that is especially true right now. The financial media will be asking: Can the profit outlook sustain the rally in stocks?

Here we are at the halfway point of the year, less than two months away from the Rio 2016 Olympic Games. As a group, commodities are the top performing asset class, beating domestic equities, the U.S. dollar and Treasuries.

We spoke with 12 Loomis Sayles investment experts about the most pressing issues and provocative investment themes for the remainder of 2016. What are they watching? Read on for their insights.

This week’s calendar includes plenty of data and a holiday-shortened week. The employment report looms, with many worried about a repeat of the weak May results. With Brexit apparently digested and the Fed on hold, I expect some attention to the possible upside. The financial media will be asking: Is it time for the summer rally?

A continuation of our last quarterly letter, “Tricky Times.” And, we emphasize again that this is a period of unusual crosscurrents. At the top of the list is the troubling amount of global debt, with government debt at around $60 trillion and with corporate debt almost equal thereto. Global debt to GDP is almost 300%. And the U.S. problematic too, with government debt equal to its GDP at around $20 trillion and growing faster than its economic growth.

Forecasting the weather or stock prices is a mostly mundane matter, but the unforeseen can exact a heavy toll. For investors, economic data improve the precision of market forecasts.

Austan Goolsbee is optimistic that the long-run prospects for the U.S. economy are outstanding due to the unbounded strength of our human capital, innovation and entrepreneurialism. However, Goolsbee warned that the next 12-18 months will be bumpy and the illusive V-shaped recovery will not happen because the U.S. Federal Reserve’s forecasting model is broken.

This week’s economic calendar has plenty of data during a week where many will want to anticipate the long weekend. Despite these factors, most are still trying to digest the Brexit decision. There will be stories on politics, polling, history, and human interest. The economic and financial market consequences will get the most play from financial media. Is the Brexit Decision a Market Turning Point?

Defying sentiment polls leading up to yesterday’s historic Brexit referendum, British voters said “thanks, but no thanks” to excessive EU taxation and regulation, choosing to take back Britain’s sovereignty in financing, budgeting, immigration policy and other areas essential to a nation’s self-identity. It was a momentous victory for the “leave” camp, led by former London mayor Boris Johnson and U.K. Independence Party leader Nigel Farage, who invoked the 1990s sci-fi action film “Independence Day” by declaring June 23 “our independence day” from foreign rule.

The next several weeks could be a tumultuous time in global markets, and investors need to keep a longer-term view in mind. Global stock markets have tended to ultimately rebound from other sharp declines—often fairly quickly. It can be tough to get back on track once things reverse, so we recommend investors use volatility to tactically keep allocations in line with their long-term strategic targets.

I’m going to start this article with the same opening statement that I utilized in a previous article I wrote on knowing when to sell a stock. The most common complaint that I have heard from investors over my 40+ years in the financial services industry is as follows: "Everyone wants to tell me what to buy and when, but no one ever tells me when to sell." Consequently, it seems to me that whether you are a novice investor or a grizzled old veteran, the decision as to when to sell a stock is considered the most difficult decision investors have to make.

From a labor market perspective, we think it is hard to justify maintaining interest rates at zero or to pursue a negative-interest rate policy in the United States. We would argue the Fed should be raising rates sooner rather than later to avoid losing credibility.

This week’s economic calendar is a little light on data, but it packs plenty of important news. Last week I suggested that the Brexit build-up would become the dominant theme. Nothing has changed.

Of the last few weeks, I have touched on the impact of valuations and forward returns. However, it is not just valuations that are an issue, but also the surge in corporate debt, balance sheet leverage combined with declining profitability which is a result of weak economic growth. All in all, such a combination of factors have historically been associated with “bear markets” in equities.

I want to continue the Brexit conversation from last week. With only six days left before U.K. voters head to the polls, expectations of which side might win are beginning to shift toward the “Brexiteers,” while betting markets are still putting money on the “stay” campaign. However, the probability of victory for those who favor keeping their European Union membership has weakened rather remarkably in the last month, falling from over 80 percent in mid-May to around 62 percent today, according to BCA Research.

With the European Union (EU) referendum now less than a week away, it is difficult here in Britain to think about much else. Given market movements this week, it appears this is the case throughout much of the globe.

Our view is that the US economy remains on course to pick up over the rest of this year, despite May’s disappointing payroll report, which helped persuade the US Federal Reserve (Fed) to hold back temporarily from raising rates at its June meeting. We do not place too much importance on this single piece of data and believe the economy’s robust fundamentals are likely to fulfill the Fed’s criteria for tightening monetary policy fairly soon.

Our team spends a great deal of time debating the economic outlook and to say PJ Grzywacz is bright would be an understatement. Sometimes our discussions get passionate and I think it is a good thing. To wit, passion in everything is a good thing. PJ challenges all things that might lead to “groupthink” biases. Something we think about a lot.

This week’s economic calendar is back to normal, with Wednesday’s FOMC announcement the highlight. Last Friday’s trading put the Brexit effects on the front burner, so I expect two themes for the week ahead. The first few days will be all about the Fed and any hints about the pace of rate increases. After the Fed meeting the emphasis will shift to the Brexit build-up, culminating next week. Expect some punditry magic. The regular Fed experts will morph into Brexit gurus by Thursday morning!

If you’re a serious investor—and because you’re reading this, I have to assume that you are—gold is looking more and more like a crucial trade. Only two weeks remain before United Kingdom voters decide on whether the country will continue to be a member of the European Union (EU) or become the first-ever to leave it. The “Brexit,” as it’s come to be known, is arguably the most consequential political event of 2016—perhaps even more so than the U.S. presidential election in November—with far-reaching implications.

For decades, Franklin Templeton has been a vocal advocate for active management, believing that the skills and insight that human oversight brings should play a crucial role in the investment process. But the emergence of risk factor investing and the evolution of traditional indexes have opened up fresh opportunities to bring a human touch to evolve what has traditionally been considered the passive space.

As the June 23rd BREXIT (the UK-wide referendum to leave the EU) vote draws near, the polls indicate a close result. Those urging a vote for the UK to remain inside the EU are suggesting increasingly dire economic consequences that would follow a yes vote by the British people to leave.

This week’s economic calendar is the lightest in recent memory. After Monday, FedSpeak fans will be disappointed, since we are entering the quiet period before the next FOMC meeting. Like nature, pundits abhor a vacuum. To fill it they will be asking: Is the weak employment report big news for stocks?

Do you remember back in the early 80s when interest rates peaked at 15.25% and most everyone felt rates were moving higher, certainly not lower?  The fact is, it was the single best time in history to get bullish on bonds.