Bond traders are bracing for wilder market swings in the US than in Europe, as signs the world’s largest economy is faltering fuel bets on a jumbo interest-rate cut from the Federal Reserve.

A record number of blue-chip firms swarmed the US corporate bond market on Tuesday, taking advantage of cheaper borrowing costs as they look to issue debt ahead of the US presidential election.

A soft landing for the U.S. economy still appears to be the most likely outcome.

Few human activities are more central to historiography than war, and yet historians are poorly equipped to understand its evolutionary and psychological roots: Why War? attempts, with only partial success, to close this gap.

As I write this, gold continues to trade above $2,500 an ounce after surging past the psychologically important level for the first time ever in mid-August. For seasoned gold mining investors, this should be a moment of validation. After all, the yellow metal has long been seen as the ultimate hedge against economic uncertainty.

The forthcoming presidential election is certainly adding a healthy dose of intrigue into the municipal bond space.

A number of myths exist about value investing as it pertains to timing the economic cycle, interest rates, and elections.

Has the tide turned decisively against King Dollar? A fall of around 5% in the greenback versus major currencies in the past two months, pushing the dollar index to a 13-month low, suggests its post-pandemic surge has meaningfully faltered.

The Federal Reserve’s preferred measure of underlying US inflation rose at a mild pace and household spending picked up in July, reinforcing policymakers’ plan to start cutting interest rates next month.

As tax season draws nearer, advisors and investors increasingly look to their portfolio to optimize exposures for taxation purposes.

When you see that behavior at extreme valuations, it tends to be a sign of underlying skittishness and risk aversion. When valuations are setting record extremes because the news can’t get any better, even a slightly less optimistic outlook becomes a risk.

Is the Japanese yen carry trade back on? Tough question. We think it is, now that the Bank of Japan has toned down its hawkish rhetoric. More on that later. Still, even if we are wrong, the reality is that the market will be talking about the violent ructions of August 2024 for the rest of our careers.

The level of U.S. Treasury yields and the changing shape of the Treasury yield curve provide investors with critical feedback regarding the market’s expectations for economic growth, inflation, and monetary policy

US Treasury yields edged higher after resilient economic reports prompted traders to slightly trim their expectations for the scope of Federal Reserve easing this year.

High-yield bonds have been one of the best-performing bond investments so far this year, but there may be better entry points down the road.

The most glaring uncertainties today, which contributed to early August seeing some of the largest market moves in the last several years, are the risks associated with the Federal Reserve’s dual mandate.

With US payroll and unemployment data surprising to the downside two Fridays ago, Treasury markets quickly repriced the probability of impending recession, helping set off a volatility spike in stocks across the world. According to Bloomberg, economists’ consensus probability of a US recession in the next twelve months is now approximately 30%.

Elevated budget deficits imply growing US Treasury issuance. Receding demand from central banks could leave more price-sensitive buyers to pick up the slack. Who are the buyers of US government debt, and how is the market responding? In part two of our series, let’s examine Treasury market supply and demand.

Midstream’s second quarter earnings calls reinforced the positive outlook for US natural gas demand driven in part by expected power demand from data centers. This note discusses the advantages of natural gas for data centers, additional factors contributing to demand growth, and how midstream is uniquely positioned to benefit from these trends.

It’s been the ultimate no-brainer for more than a year: Park your money in super-safe Treasury bills, earn yields of more than 5%, rinse and repeat. Or as billionaire bond investor Jeffrey Gundlach put it last October, “T-bill and chill.”

Profitable bond trading opportunities arise when your expectations about Fed policy differ from those of the market. Therefore, with the Fed seemingly embarking on a series of interest rate cuts, it behooves us to appreciate how many interest rate cuts the Fed Funds futures market expects and over what period.

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell on Friday removed all doubt that interest rate cuts are just around the corner. “The time has come for policy to adjust,” he said at his much-hyped annual speech in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, setting off a knee-jerk rally in stocks and bonds.

The dollar plunged after Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell affirmed expectations that the central bank will cut interest rates next month, sparking a rally in the currencies of major global peers.

Although we think it's too early to declare the economy is in a recession, risk is elevated. For investors who are concerned about a recession, municipal bonds may help buffer a portfolio.

Treasuries rallied after Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s speech at Jackson Hole cemented expectations that the central bank will cut interest rates next month.

Chair Jerome Powell said the time has come for the Federal Reserve to cut its key policy rate, affirming expectations that officials will begin lowering borrowing costs next month and making clear his intention to prevent further cooling in the labor market.

Are we going to have a recession? Are we already in a recession?

With recent cooling in economic growth, an uptick in unemployment, inflation moderating back to the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) 2% target, and expectations for rate cuts, we believe the winds are shifting in the U.S. fixed income market.

Before the pandemic hit in 2020, a decade-long bull run in the stock market saw the 60/40 portfolio slowly fall out of favor. With market volatility returning, that 60/40 split appears to be making a comeback.

If interest rates decrease over the next 12 months, as the market expects, long duration bonds could potentially provide equity-like returns for investors.

Bond traders are taking on a record amount of risk as they bet big on a Treasury market rally fueled by expectations the Federal Reserve will embark on its first interest-rate cut in more than four years.

A recent article co-authored by Stephen Miran and Dr. Nouriel Roubini, aka Dr. Doom, accuses the U.S. Treasury Department of using its debt-issuance powers to manipulate financial conditions.

While high rates can make borrowing costlier and slow down housing markets, they also open favorable opportunities in financial products like annuities. In other words, annuities are back and stronger than ever before!

Investors including JPMorgan Asset Management, M&G Investments and Aviva Investors say they seized on the retreat in riskier assets at the start of the month to bolster their holdings of emerging-market bonds.

Just as bond traders grow more assured that inflation is finally under control, a camp of investors is quietly building up protection against the risk of a future spike in prices.

The current economic landscape is fraught with uncertainty, and the potential for higher inflation continues to pose a real threat to market stability.

Markets were recently rattled by concerns the U.S. may slip into recession, but it's not clear that those fears are justified.

A popular yen-centered carry trade that blew up spectacularly two weeks ago is staging a comeback.

Because there is unprecedented use of the word “unprecedented,” we thought it appropriate to expand our annual Charts for the Beach from 5 charts to 10 charts and tables this year. So, probably best to stay under the beach umbrella as you read our unprecedented extended edition.

The recent U.S. Treasury yield rally is compared to a similar rally in Q4 2023, driven by expectations of a shift in Federal Reserve policy.

The BlackRock Flexible Income ETF (BINC) launched less than 15 months ago and is already approaching $4 billion in AUM.

The inflation numbers this week — both for producer and consumer prices — have served to reassure markets in two distinct ways: confirming continued progress in the battle against high price increases and supporting the ongoing shift in the Federal Reserve’s focus from its inflation mandate to its employment mandate.

For years, the emphasis within fixed income investing has been to seek security-specific alpha in an illiquid bond market where no single security significantly impacts portfolio returns.

Bond prices whipsawed over the past month as volatility spiked across markets. What's next for fixed income markets?

It's a good time to revisit which equity market sectors are defensive themes. Certain products are nondiscretionary we can't live without.

Bond investors pared back their expectations for Federal Reserve interest-rate cuts slightly as data showed US inflation ebbed further in July, reinforcing the case for a quarter-point reduction next month.

The headlines suggest catastrophe for the global food supply: Biblical heatwaves, floods, storms and wildfires. And yet, in the world’s breadbaskets, the weather has been fair this growing season — so good that we’re facing an oversupply of key agricultural commodities and thus much lower prices than in 2022 and 2023.

The KraneShares Sustainable Ultra Short Duration Index ETF (KCSH) offers low risk income investing with notable yields and diversification.

The financial markets appear to be rather confident the Fed will finally begin its rate cutting process at the September Federal Open Market Committee meeting, at a minimum. The debate has now shifted as to what this easing cycle will ultimately look like.

Previously reliable recession signals have not worked in this cycle.