With US payroll and unemployment data surprising to the downside two Fridays ago, Treasury markets quickly repriced the probability of impending recession, helping set off a volatility spike in stocks across the world. According to Bloomberg, economists’ consensus probability of a US recession in the next twelve months is now approximately 30%.

Since World War II, the US Dollar (USD) has served as the world’s preeminent ‘reserve currency’ – the means of exchange for most of the rest of the world to do business.