One of the possible implications of a less aggressive Fed in 2019 is a weaker dollar. And once the dollar starts to lose ground relative to other world currencies, the price of gold could rocket up to as much as $1,500 in the blink of an eye.

Major economies are positioned to keep growing in the year ahead, but risks are mounting.

With only one trading day left in 2018, the price of gold has so far beaten the S&P 500 Index for the month of December, the fourth quarter and the year. What might surprise some readers is that it’s also outperformed the market for the century.

Investors’ obsession with the flattening U.S. Treasury yield curve dominated headlines for much of 2018. A flattening yield curve occurs when short-term rates are rising faster than long-term rates, which may eventually lead to an inverted yield curve, where short-term rates are higher than long-term rates. Historically, this has been a negative signal for the U.S. economy, often providing an early warning of an eventual recession, which is why the yield curve has been garnering so much attention recently.

Gold is back! So far this quarter, the yellow metal has crushed the market, returning around 6 percent versus negative 15 percent for the S&P 500 Index. Gold miners, though, have been the top performer, climbing a phenomenal 12.3 percent.

I am going to offer some different thoughts than the mainstream media spin on Jerome Powell, his press conference, and the Federal Reserve.

In spite of its recent track record, value is not dead. It’s just been wounded a few times since the financial crisis, as investors favored growth-oriented segments of the market amidst easy monetary policy.

Read Harold Evensky's most recent NewsLetter. 

Overoptimism and overconfidence are two well-known psychological traits of our species. They are particularly dangerous in the late stages of an economic cycle where these terrible twins result in investors overestimating return and underestimating risk – a potentially lethal combination of errors.

Early last week we published our collective 2019 outlook summary and today’s report will put some more visual meat on the bones of that summary.

Wheaton Precious Metals announced that it reached a settlement with the Canadian Revenue Agency (CRA), the equivalent of the IRS. “We expect the stock to react positively to the news given the tax dispute was an overhang,” Credit Suisse analysts shared in a note to investors today.

We see a synchronized global slowdown in 2019. We position cautiously but anticipate opportunities ahead.

It has been a year where virtually every asset class has suffered negative returns. But emerging market equities have outperformed global indices and, according to Jeffrey Gundlach, that’s where investors should put their money “over the next seven and certainly the next 20 years.”

The global economy looks set to move into a lower gear as both advanced and emerging economies will find it hard to extend their recent robust economic performance into 2019.

Can markets grind higher in 2019 before the clock runs out on the current cycle? See what our strategists’ views are for the year ahead.

Just in time for Hanukkah and Christmas, silver is on sale, trading at a little more than $14 an ounce. That’s the most affordable the white metal’s been in three years. Gifting your kids and grandkids coins made of precious metals such as gold or silver could end up becoming a fun new tradition in your family.

By the end of the summer I became convinced that the United States equity market was setting itself up for a powerful post mid-term election rally. The economic fundamentals were strong: unemployment was at a 40-year low and real growth was better than 3%; the Federal Reserve was raising rates...

After working with dozens of financial planners, I see very few firms with strategic, digital marketing plans.

Last month, we referenced the phrase “October Surprise” in its usual political context. Well, we certainly had a surprise, but it was markets-related rather than political. After months of investor complacency and a sky-rocketing technology sector, the markets suddenly got spooked on the backs of global trade tensions...

The incoming Mexican government’s costly plan to cancel the new Mexico City airport has fueled concerns that President-elect Andrés Manuel López Obrador will enact a populist agenda and squander the country’s sound financial position.

Jeremy Siegel is the Russell E. Palmer Professor of Finance at the Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania. In this interview, he provides is forecast for stock and bond market performance and identifies the asset classes that are most attractively valued.

Like cranberry growers, many bitcoin miners are choosing to limit supply as current prices are lower than operating costs. Bitcoin fell below $5,000 on Monday and was trading around $4,250 on Friday. The average of mining a single bitcoin, meanwhile, is estimated to be between $6,000 and $7,000, meaning miners are operating at a loss.

Asset allocation decisions can be challenging for investors during the later stage of the business cycle. Focusing on quality is likely the best way to manage the transition from late expansion to a potential recession.

Volatility returned and pulled markets across the globe into the red. Slowing growth momentum outside the U.S. further weighed on sentiment. Political developments from Latin America to Europe were a source of both uncertainty and assurance for markets.

Natural gas storage in the lower 48 states was below the five-year average as of October 31, according to the EIA. This, combined with a stronger-than-expected start to winter, prompted traders to push prices to a four-year high of $4.84 per MBtu. Meanwhile, natural gas futures trading hit an all-time daily volume record of 1.2 million contracts.

The US government’s debt problem isn’t new. It has been steadily growing for nearly 40 years, and growing interest expense has secularly weighed down domestic economic growth. Why has this happened and how do we fix it?

Recent volatility reminds us that new risks are testing standard defensive equity strategies. Portfolios that offer downside protection need to go beyond standard risk models and position themselves for changing challenges ranging from trade wars to European political instability.

In recent years, US market strength has lifted markets globally, despite recent bouts of market volatility. According to Templeton Global Equity Group, that US market strength has led to a widening valuation gap between US and global equities.

How risky is factor-based investing?

Celebrated value investor Benjamin Graham, who mentored a young Warren Buffett, liked to say that the market is a voting machine in the short term, a weighing machine in the long term. This week the market voted to reward stocks in the aftermath of the midterm elections, which gave Democrats control of the House and left the Senate in the hands of Republicans. This all but guarantees that gridlock will be the status quo in Washington, at least for the next two years.

Volatility has ramped up but little has been resolved. Caution continues to be warranted as unresolved issues appear set to continue.

How are markets reacting to the results of U.S. midterms? We have the latest.

We have a normal economic calendar. Tuesday’s election will take center stage. Markets have less than expected interest in the election. Partly this reflects confidence in a split outcome, with no major policy changes.

There was much to cheer in October’s jobs report, especially wage growth; but that tends to come at a “price” of tighter monetary conditions.

Brexit uncertainty has captured the headlines, but we are constructive on quality growth holdings.

After the meeting on September 26 the FOMC published its dot plot and the expected path for the federal funds rate through the end of 2020. If all goes according to this script the federal funds rate will be raised in December, three more times in 2019...

Do markets still have room to run? See what equity managers across the manager universe are thinking in our Q3 report.

Speaking with Bloomberg’s Erik Schatzker this week, Taleb said the reason why he has reservations about today’s economy is that it suffers from the “same disease” as before. The meltdown in 2007 was a “crisis of debt,” and if anything, the problem has only worsened.

Our Recession Probability Model and Recession Dashboard continue to suggest a recession is likely to begin in early 2020. Investors ignore the yield curve’s signal at their peril.

The recent volatility has been at least partly driven by markets reacting to higher interest rates and a Federal Reserve that appears committed to further tightening. We expect more turbulence as investors realize the Fed and even other central banks are determined to pull back accommodative monetary policies that have supported markets since the financial crisis.

We have a huge economic calendar. While employment data will get most of the attention, there are also important reports on ISM manufacturing, personal income, PCE prices, consumer confidence and auto sales. Earnings season continues with another big week of reports. In normal times these topics would provide plenty to think about.

My firm is having little success finding solid companies at attractive valuations. Don’t just take my word for it. Take a look at several charts, below, that show the magnitude of the stock market’s overvaluation and, more importantly, put it into historical context.

One of the most commonly asked questions I receive from investors is: how many stocks should I put in my portfolio? This is a widely debated subject that is most commonly referred to as concentrated versus widely diversified portfolio construction.

When the February market correction ended, I had the lingering feeling that not enough damage had been done to investor complacency to provide for a sustained move higher. In spite of that, the major indexes continued to plow ahead.

The biggest failure in investment management—the gap between the returns realized by the investor and the returns earned by the strategy or fund the investor owns—typically remains in the shadows with the glare of the spotlights focused on alpha. Smart beta is no exception. We propose two ways to reframe the client performance review that we believe will result in better long-term outcomes.

Brian Smedley is Senior Managing Director and Head of Macroeconomic and Investment Research at Guggenheim Partners. In this interview, he discusses his outlook for the economy and the capital markets, and how the economy is likely to run into a recession in the first half of 2020.

At Schwab IMPACT, stop by the Guggenheim booth (620), to meet Brian Smedley, and see him present Forecasting the Next Recession on Tuesday 10/30, at 11:15 AM ET, Showcase Stage C.

We have a light economic calendar with a focus on housing. Earnings season would normally be the most important market theme. For now, observers are seeing what they want to see in earnings reports.

Today, rather than tackle some big macroeconomic issue, we’ll go back to this letter’s roots and look at market timing and portfolio construction issues. I expect this will get both enthusiastic support and at the same time, make a number of readers uncomfortable—if not annoyed.

With USMCA and Brexit negotiations, nations are reworking the world’s most fundamental trade agreements. How will these new treaties affect global relations?

Hungary isn’t known today as one of the world’s top gold producing countries. There was a time, though, when it accounted for around three quarters of Europe’s entire output of the yellow metal, if you can believe it. According to historian Peter Sugar’s A History of Hungary, the central European country was a “veritable El Dorado” in the 14th century, and its gold pieces circulated widely across the entire continent, competing with those minted in Italy and England.