Well, I went to camp this summer, too. I go every year, and I always learn more than I can manage to remember. Camp Kotok is an invitation-only gathering of economists, market analysts, fund managers, and a few journalists. It takes place at the historic Leen’s Lodge in Grand Lake Stream, Maine. We fish, talk, eat, drink, and talk some more. It’s a three-day economic thought-fest (and more rich food and wine than is good for me or anyone else at the camp). For me, that’s about as good as life gets.

Outcomes from the most recent state budget season, which concluded for most U.S. states on 30 June, underscore the need for caution among municipal bond investors.

With critical policy pivots on the horizon, investors should approach asset allocation with full appreciation for downside risk and stay focused on relative value and security selection.

On June 20t, the CFP Board released a draft of proposed revisions to its Code of Ethics. The draft and the pronouncements surrounding the release are merely the latest in the Board’s long history of feigning interest in consumer advocacy in order to advance the organization’s own ambition to seize control of the financial planning industry. Its actions serve as a sterling example of why the CFP Board should never be entrusted to be the standard bearer for the profession.

In July, the Institute for Supply Management’s (ISM) Non-Manufacturing Index fell to an 11-month low of 53.9, 3.5 points below its June reading of 57.4. The index measures the non-manufacturing, services industries such as food services, education, real estate, health care and more.

Today I will show you a simple indicator that has an excellent recession-forecasting record, according to research by the Federal Reserve itself. Though the Fed’s own wacky policies may have weakened this early-warning system’s reliability, an interpretive adjustment can restore its usefulness.

Five years ago this week, Mario Draghi’s landmark “whatever it takes” speech turned the tide of the euro crisis, the president effectively clarifying the European Central Bank’s role as a conditional lender of last resort to eurozone sovereign borrowers. 

I’m in the process of writing another book, going into great depth regarding one of the most important things discussed in my book The Most Important Thing: cycles, their causes, and what to do about them. It will be out next year, but this memo will give you a preview regarding one of the most important cyclical phenomena.

Supply and demand seems to have been placed on the backburner in today’s world of prognosticating inflation, employment, and GDP. The first point is the supply of publicly traded stock in the US. The second point is the supply of money.

When PIMCO professionals gather for our annual Secular Forum to discuss the long-term global economic outlook, views on Europe invariably gravitate on two themes: anemic GDP growth and political risk.

I am concerned that another major crisis will ensue by the end of 2018 – though it is possible that a salutary combination of events, aided by complacency, could let us muddle through for another few years. But there is another recession in our future (there is always another recession), and it’s going to be at least as bad as the last one was, in terms of the global pain it causes.

Today I want to discuss reports that global debt levels are at all-time highs, and what this means for your investment decisions going forward.

I have lived through recessions and bear markets; I know what they look like. I wish I could forget what they feel like. They don’t come out of nowhere; there are always warning signs. Many investors choose to ignore those signs; I choose not to. I hope you make the same choice.

Every year the Trustees of the US Social Security and Medicare trust funds provide their report on the current and projected financial status of these programs.

At eight years, the current economic recovery is the third longest on record. Personal income, consumer spending, household assets, and net worth, are all at record highs. Stock markets are at record highs. Corporate profits are within striking distance of their all-time highs. Federal tax receipts are at record highs.

Markets seem not to care what the media or polls have to say. The Dow Jones Industrial Average continues to hit new all-time highs. Even though it’s stalled a few times, the “Trump rally” appears to be in full-speed-ahead mode, more than eight months after the election.

A review of last month’s market-moving events across countries and asset classes.

K2 Advisors seeks to add value through active portfolio management, tactical allocation and diversification across four main hedge strategies: long short equity, relative value, global macro and event driven.

We update our geopolitical outlook for the remainder of the year. This report is less a series of predictions as it is a list of potential geopolitical issues that we believe will dominate the international landscape for the rest of the year.

It never fails that when you decide to slip out of the office for a break, the markets will act up. Last week was not an exception to the rule as investor anxiousness continued to cause activity on trading desks. Rising global yields continued to stress risk parity funds and leveraged hedge funds who were positioned for lower interest rates.

With $504 billion flowing into passively managed products and $316 billion fleeing actively managed mutual funds in 2016 in the U.S., the active-versus-passive debate appears to be tipping in favor of passive management.

The second quarter of 2017 closely mirrored the first. Global markets continued positive returns for many strategic domestic and global equity investors.

The first half of 2017 is shaping up to be unequivocally brutal for value-oriented rebalancing strategies. Wired to avoid pain, we humans know it’s very tempting to ask whether a model or philosophy is broken, especially the moment it dashes expectations.

With the euro up another 50bps today against the USD, we thought it timely to review some fundamental factors that should act to support the longer-term trend higher in the euro.

Although the British economy is showing signs of slowing down, the country has not contracted or imploded as many Brexit opponents had predicted. In fact, certain British sectors such as exports and manufacturing continue to expand.

The last two weeks of June are usually a good time to recharge the batteries and get away. Unfortunately, last week kept many of those out of the office attached to their smartphones and their boats tied up at the docks.

While generally upbeat about global economic prospects, former Treasury Secretary Jack Lew warned policymakers against “blowing a hole in the deficit” by cutting taxes and pursuing aggressive fiscal policy measures.

Today, you’ll find my high level notes from Mark Yusko’s presentation at the Mauldin Economics 2017 Strategic Investment Conference.

We are having a hard time finding high-quality companies at attractive valuations.

The initial conditions or the starting point conditions, mean to me that a small degree of monetary restraint has a very quick and strong impact on economic activity.

Surprising no one, President Donald Trump announced his decision to withdraw the U.S. from the Paris climate agreement this week, highlighting the depth of his commitment to keep “America First.” Also surprising no one, the media is making much of the fact that the U.S. now joins only Nicaragua and Syria in refusing to participate in the accord.

With the probability of recession sometime in the next five years around 70% in our view, now may be a critical time to prepare for when the cyclical tailwind that began last year begins to fade. Over the next five years, the global economy may undergo five significant pivots in the direction and scope of monetary, fiscal, trade, geopolitical and exchange rate policies. Are investors too optimistic about the future economy? We address this and other crucial questions in PIMCO’s 2017 Secular Outlook – our long-term view for the global economy and markets. 

US equity markets made new all-time highs again this week. By Friday, SPX had risen 7 days in a row; that type of trend persistence has a strong tendency to carry the markets higher over the next week(s). That said, the month of June is seasonally weak and there are a number of reasons to suspect it will be again this year, not the least of which is the FOMC meeting mid-month during which markets anticipate the federal funds rate will be hiked for a 4th time. The prior three rate hikes have coincided with notable drawdowns in equities (as well as a fall in treasury yields).

Russell Investments’ Chief Investment Strategist, Erik Ristuben explores the importance and power of mean reversion in this latest post.

Expectations for U.S. growth continue to slow as distractions in Washington D.C. take away from the aggressive legislative agenda.

On the surface, China continues to outperform expectations. It has sustained a high rate of economic growth for longer than most other developing countries.

No one said that the flight path to higher returns would be easy. With the increase in uncorrelated asset returns, there are many different sets of positive returns out in the market right now. You just need to set the right flight path to snatch some of those better return streams.

News of the consumer's death has traveled fast.

In this issue, Research Affiliates offers insight into its CPI-based secondary return benchmarks, its business cycle modeling and continued opportunities in emerging markets.

A review of last month’s market-moving events across countries and asset classes.

If you are one of these founder-owners who genuinely wants to grow and to transform your practice to an enduring business with an impressive enterprise value, the reason your firm has plateaued is you, the founder-owner.

Every episode in history has its own wrinkles. But investors should not use some “new era” argument to dismiss the central principles of investing, as a substitute for carefully quantifying the impact of those wrinkles. Unfortunately, because investors get caught up in concepts, they come to a point in every speculative episode where they ignore the central principles of investing altogether.

I fully intended to end my series on “Angst in America” last week, moving on to portfolio construction and what I call the Great Reset. But as I did my regular reading and research this week and reflected on it, I realized there was one piece missing from this series. That is a discussion of the angst that the Millennial generation and generations that follow are facing. And this is not just a US problem; it’s global.

In the last 20 years, the U.S. stock market has undergone an alarming change that too few people are aware of or talking about. Between 1996 and 2016, the number of listed companies fell by half, from 7,300 to 3,600, according to a recent report by Credit Suisse. This occurred despite the U.S. economy growing nearly 60 percent over the same period.

A bottom-up look at major industries around the world reveals significant potential for productivity growth.

While there was plenty of ink spilled and electrons fired regarding the White House tax reform proposal last week, it could be a very long time before anything actually gets voted on. And who knows if it will even be passed.

Recent market action has all the markings of a relief rally. The French vote in favor of centrist candidate Macron took "Frexit" off the table for now; a new tax cut proposal by the Trump administration, and the decreasing likelihood of a near-term U.S. government shutdown all appeared to play a part in the sharp rise in stocks and plunge in volatility.

Donald Trump has made good on one of his most audacious campaign promises by submitting what he describes as the biggest tax cut in U.S. History. For once, at least, this does not appear to be Trumpian braggadocio. It really may be the mother of all tax cuts.