Flanked by coal workers, President Donald Trump signed the American Energy Independence Executive Order this week, directing the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) to review the Clean Power Plan, former President Barack Obama’s signature environmental policy. Unveiled in August 2015, the plan is intended to reduce carbon dioxide emitted from U.S. power plants 32 percent by 2030.
The Federal Reserve faces three complications to removing monetary policy accommodation.
Amar Reganti, a member of GMO’s Asset Allocation team, examines “ultralong” debt in his new white paper “The 100 Year: A Take on the Century Bond.” The recently confirmed Secretary of Treasury, Steven Mnuchin, has indicated that he would "possibly review the issuance of a 100-year bond as an instrument used to achieve that maturity extension."
We caution investors on sterling and UK gilts as Brexit negotiations commence and the likelihood of a “hard Brexit” remains high.
For time segmentation to work, there must be a clear procedure for how to extend the bond ladder. Unfortunately, with its varied implementation, that procedure is often overlooked. I will examine the potential for time segmentation by considering three different ways to implement it.
As 2017 progresses and the priorities of the Trump administration take shape, the outlook for emerging markets (EM) has evolved from uncertain to promising.
With markets reacting in part to geopolitical events, it’s hard not to be distracted by news headlines. To help sift through some of the noise, several of our senior investment leaders recently participated in a roundtable discussion of the events shaping the global markets today, the implications for investors and where they see potential opportunities ahead.
With the dissolution of health care legislation barely final, murmurers out of Washington seem to suggest tax reform/cuts and infrastructure may be tackled in tandem in a way that attracts bipartisan support.
Passive global bond investors may be getting more than they bargained for—in terms of risk, that is. That’s because lower-yielding debt is overrepresented in the benchmark, providing less buffer—and passive investing locks other types of risk into the portfolio.
With the stock market in full swing, investors are questioning whether the end is nigh. This month, we review bull and bear market cycles past, and observe the difference between cyclical and secular periods.
The threat of rising interest rates is all the rage in financial circles today. However, the seminal question is: How real is the threat, and how much impact will rising rates have on stock prices and investor performance?
Macroeconomic volatility is a useful tool for contrarian investors who are seeking fair value in an equity market characterized by continually rising valuations.
A tailwind for the rally over the past year has been the bearish positioning of investors, with fund managers persistently shunning equities in exchange for holding cash.
As interest rates nudge higher, many municipal bond investors worry about the impact on their portfolios. Muni credit, which holds its value better when rates rise, could be the solution.
We expect the global economic expansion to strengthen and broaden over the cyclical horizon, but with improved growth and inflation prospects, central banks may scale back accommodation.
Presently, based on the most historically reliable valuation measures we identify, we expect annual total returns for the S&P 500 averaging just 0.6% over the coming 12-year period; a prospective return that we expect will not only underperform bonds over this horizon, but even the lowly yields available on risk-free T-bills.
Investor exuberance is being supported by proposed fiscal policy such as lower corporate taxes, deregulation and historically large budget cuts to help finance the rebuilding of the nation’s infrastructure and military.
Nothing seems to be able to phase the stock market recently. Political infighting, Presidential tweets, North Korean missile launches, oil falling below $50, European political uncertainty, higher bond yields, and the Fed raising rates: none of those forces have knocked stocks off their recent uptrend.
Yield-hungry investors are quickly regaining their taste for deeply subordinated bank bonds. Some of these securities offer appetizing yields, but it’s important not to overindulge.
The proliferation of liquid alternative mutual funds happened in response to the 2008-2009 recession, which was followed by an extended period of unusually low interest rates.
In this month’s Global Economic Perspective, Franklin Templeton Fixed Income Group weighs in on the factors spurring the US Fed’s decision to raise rates, why the ECB’s Draghi is likely to resist calls to adopt a more hawkish line, and why the backdrop for emerging markets has improved.
Senior Investment Strategist Steve Lipper looks at the correlation of small-cap stock performance with rising interest rates.
There’s a lot of uncertainty today for municipal bond investors: how do you hang onto the income you have in the face of rising rates and the potential for tax reform, and where should you look for more? We think muni credit is a good place to point the shovel.
An opportunity may be arising in one of the forgotten corners of the global fixed-income market—Japanese inflation-linked bonds (JGBi), or “linkers.” Active global bond investors can take advantage.
Passive “doing-by-not-doing” is no way to run a bond portfolio today.
The Fed finds itself in a tricky place. Next week will likely be rate hike number three. “Three steps and a stumble?” We’ll see. My dad used to always say, “Stuck between a rock and a hard place.” I’ll try my best to explain what I see.
The FOMC is likely to enact a third hike in the federal funds rate this week. With economic data continuing to be good, the risk to equities of a rate hike is small. Higher rates indicate continued economic growth, so equities, commodities, the dollar and yields generally respond positively. However, the recent picture is more mixed: in particular, the dollar and yields have sold off after rates have been hiked. This was not the consensus' expectation, nor is it this time. Is another surprise likely now?
The risk of redenomination, remote as it is, still complicates the European Central Bank’s exit from quantitative easing.
"School days" inexorably continue at the Gross household, not just because of grandchildren, but because of the necessity to teach my own kids the complexities and pitfalls of investing.
The UK is about to enter a period of potential uncertainty, and the greatest gift the Chancellor can provide to the government is economic protection.
The majority of U.S. economic data are based on statistical samples and the various figures are typically adjusted for seasonal variation. That means that the numbers are subject to some level of uncertainty.
The yield on the 10-year Treasury bond has been tightly coiled in a “zone of death,” Jeffrey Gundlach said. Since the start of the year, it has traded between 2.4% and 2.5%, but it is poised to rally to 2.25% before it retreats to 3.0% by the end of the year, according to Gundlach.
Unorthodox monetary policies, low and negative interest rates, and other factors such as aging demographics have led to an ongoing hunt for yield. The result has brought even risk-averse investors further and further out on the risk spectrum. This paper, Adjusting to a sustained low-yield environment examines the issues.
It should have been the best week of the Presidency for New York’s favorite son. After staying on script at his address to a joint session of Congress, you could sense that the narrative was shifting from “he is trying to do too much” to “how great it would be if he can get just one half of his agenda done.”
U.S. equities advanced yet again last week with the S&P 500 Index climbing 0.7%. Economic data continued to come in better than expected. Consumer confidence reached its highest level since 2001 last month while the ISM non-manufacturing index, which measures business activity and employment trends, showed its strongest reading since late 2015.
As Washington DC melts down, entrepreneurs keep moving, people keep working and spending; the economy keeps growing. The Federal Reserve keeps meeting and speaking, too, but now it appears they will actually act.
The economic calendar is light until the Friday employment report. Most of the punditry are still digesting the more aggressive talk in the recent speeches from Fed participants. With many observers expecting a correction and looking for a catalyst, pundits will be asking: Will a more aggressive Fed derail the rally in stocks?
Emerging Markets rebound after post-election "Trump slump," indicating that Trump’s economic policies may benefit some emerging markets countries and assets.
Advisors should define risk as the probability that clients won’t meet their financial goals. Advisors should have the singular objective of minimizing this risk. This definition profoundly shifts the conversation away from volatility and losses, and toward strategies that achieve minimum required returns.
One hundred years after the Russian Revolution, the tsars and the USSR may be gone, but Russia itself is alive and well. Neil Dwane, Global Strategist for Allianz Global Investors says that with the US becoming more isolationist, Russia has a chance to revise its standing with the US and EU – but this time, as an equal.
"The issue is no longer whether the current market resembles those preceding the 1929, 1969-70, 1973-74, and 1987 crashes. The issue is only - are conditions like October of 1929, or more like April? Like October of 1987, or more like July?
If an issuer defaults, insurance firms can make sure your payments don’t stop.
At the beginning of each month I like to take a look at the most recent published equity market valuations. So let’s do that today. As you review the charts, keep in the back of your mind that valuation metrics are pretty much useless in identifying market peaks but they are outstanding at helping us zero in on what the forward 10-year returns are likely to be.
Peter Chiappinelli, CFA; GMO LLC discusses the common benchmark, the Bloomberg Barclays U.S. Aggregate Bond Index (the Agg). There’s nothing passive about the Agg, as it’s aggressively been taking on more risk. There are three main reasons for this concern: the simple math of bond duration; the changing composition of the index; and the very logical financing behavior of corporate borrowers.
40 percent of companies now in operation around the world will not exist “in a meaningful way” sometime within the next two decades. To survive, companies will need to reinvent themselves by integrating digitization into the fabric of their business strategy.
One of the hottest gifts of the recent holiday season was the Amazon Echo, which offers to ease the lives of customers by directing the system with its famous command “Alexa…” This move toward the automation of a greater percentage of our lives has a parallel in the investing world.
j2 Global (JCOM) was founded in 1995 and went public in 1999. During their first few years as a public company, j2 Global generated operating losses; however, since 2002 the company has strung together an impressive record of rapid growth.
Why Europe’s banks may be on a sounder footing in 2017.
Rising equity prices and bond yields pose a puzzle for investors. Given equity valuations, some investors question whether the rally is peaking. This month, we examine the fundamental underpinnings of a steady economy, growth of company earnings and revenue, and pent-up consumer spending.
While the majority of the financial world has its focus on every move in Washington D.C., there is another very important development happening in the German bond market.