Nearly nine years into the current economic expansion Federal Reserve policy actions appear to be benign, as even after six increases, the federal funds rate remains less than 2%. Changes in the reserve, monetary and credit aggregates, which have always been the most important Fed levers both theoretically and empirically, indicate however that central bank policy has turned highly restrictive.
Facebook’s margins could ebb this year, but they remain at elevated levels and profits could still grow meaningfully.
You have undoubtedly heard stories about brokers changing firms who experienced everything from a minor disruption in revenue to an all-out career catastrophe. While you cannot anticipate every event, there is one thing you can do: Plan your work, and work your plan.
The global economic expansion has already entered its 10th year. With bumpy and brittle growth having given way to a robust and globally synchronized conjuncture, an aging cycle has suddenly become much more cyclical.
On March 16, news broke that British political consulting firm Cambridge Analytica had gained improper access to data from as many as 50 million Facebook users (an estimate that has since been upped to 87 million).
Advisor Perspectives, a leading publisher serving financial advisors and the financial advisory community, has announced its Venerated Voices™ awards for commentaries published in Q1 2018. Rankings were issued in three categories: The Top 25 Venerated Voices™ by Firm, The Top 25 Venerated Voices™ by Author and The Top 10 Venerated Voices™ by Commentary.
Mid-sized advisor firms, upon graduating from being a one- or two-person operation, find themselves contending with all sorts of growing pains. All of a sudden they have the marketing issues of a larger firm – with an infrastructure that hasn’t caught up. Here’s my best advice to escape the trap of the mid-sized advisor firm.
When the report on international trade came out earlier this month, protectionists were up in arms. Through February, the US' merchandise (goods only, not services) trade deficit with the rest of the world was the largest for any two-month period on record. "Economic nationalists" from both sides of the political aisle, think this situation is unsustainable.
2018 began much as 2017 ended, with steadily rising equity markets, low interest rates and burgeoning market optimism. Indeed, investors were increasingly convinced that the lowest stock and bond market volatility since 1965 was set to continue in 2018. Who could blame them?
Today we’re going to look at who wins and who loses under the new tax law. I think many of you will be surprised.
How much debt is too much? [Carl/The Northern Trust Economics team] digests the outlook for debt across countries and levels of government, recaps the most recent outlook for the U.S. fiscal situation, and contrasts China’s current ascendance with the historical example of Japan.
You’ve no doubt heard that everything’s bigger in Texas. That’s more than just a trite expression, and I’m not just saying that because Texas is home to U.S. Global Investors.
Northern Trust’s economic team recaps recent economic developments and shares our monthly outlook for economic growth, inflation, employment and interest rates in the United States.
Northern Trust’s Economic Research team shares its quarterly perspective on the growth prospects and challenges ahead for the U.S., U.K., Eurozone, China, and Japan.
A review of last month’s market-moving events across countries and asset classes.
Prospects for a trade war are having an impact on markets, but for bargain hunters, stocks are still expensive. Russ suggests looking outside the U.S.
What do the best leaders do to gain the trust and respect of their followers? They master these seven key skills.
Markets began the year as they had been over much of 2017, but changed their tone over the quarter—volatility reemerged, interest rates rose, the dollar fell, and equity markets retreated.
Diversifying your investments limits risk, but too much diversification limits gains while not reducing risk any further. You need to embrace risk in both public and private companies to receive the returns you desire.
An entire generation of investors has been misled about interest rates: where they come from, what they mean, how they're determined.
John Hathaway, manager of the Tocqueville Gold Fund (TGLDX) writes in his Q1 investor letter that the price of gold may be offering a clear signal that the Federal Reserve’s "dot plot" - the interest rate levels projected by the members of the Fed Open Market Committee after each meeting - "is due for an overhaul."
Trade war rhetoric is driving US equities, meaning, what happens next in the equity market is very much a function of which trade posture the administration adopts next. Longer term, it's unlikely much of the current rhetoric will make into actual policy as it suits no one's economic interests.
This issue contains a deeper look into the competitive strategies at play in the current U.S.-China tariff feud, the drivers of the recent upturn in U.S. homeownership, and the market for Japanese government bonds.
After being mostly absent in 2017, volatility has made a comeback. The S&P 500 Index closed down for the first three months of 2018—the first time it’s done so in 10 quarters. It also had its worst start to April since 1929. Gold performed as expected during the quarter, serving as a safe haven and delivering positive returns, while the price of oil surged more than 5 percent on U.S. dollar weakness and news that OPEC and Russia could be cooperating to limit output for a long period.
Today we will look back at what economists thought the federal budget and tax policy would be in 2001 and thereafter. Let’s just say the government projections were a tad optimistic.
The macro data from the past month continues to mostly point to positive growth. On balance, the evidence suggests the imminent onset of a recession is unlikely.
Tech and financials led the recent selloff, as headline noise and regulatory risks spooked investors. But strong corporate fundamentals, including earnings growth, should ultimately drive stock returns.
The first quarter of 2018 saw the end of the bull market. Not in stocks necessarily, as the upward trend remains intact, but certainly of the bull market in confidence. January was a strong month, but then the world changed. Markets dropped in early February, only to bounce and then drop again in March. Let’s review why things changed in Q1, plus what we might expect in Q2.
Some new developments in Washington and recent court rulings have implications for those saving and investing for retirement. Drew Carrington, head of Institutional Defined Contribution at Franklin Templeton Investments, along with Michael Doshier, head of retirement marketing, examine the status of the Retirement Enhancement and Savings Act (RESA) and what it might mean for both plan sponsors and participants.
Many of us who grew up as children of children of the Great Depression may recall our parents imploring us to “Stop throwing good money after bad!” in any number of situations, even if we didn’t always heed their wisdom.
With volatility returning to domestic equities, it might be time for investors to consider increasing their exposure to foreign markets, specifically emerging Europe.
See what our quarterly survey of global fixed-income investment firms reveals about expectations for increasing interest rates, market volatility and emerging market currencies.
My advisors need to do a better job of presenting their ideas to clients.
If you’re looking to grow by realigning your practice with your inner beliefs and passions, here are five reasons to move to a small or mid-sized broker dealer firm.
Quarterly commentary giving an overview of the markets and the importance of having and implementing a strategy when investing in the markets.
The active/passive debate has been raging for years, and both approaches have merit. But there’s more to the story than meets the eye. Investors who commit too much to passive—and not enough to active—could face mounting risks.
Recent economic data suggest the overall growth was at a moderate pace in the first quarter, respectable, but short of the very lofty expectations seen at the start of the quarter.
Investing requires bearing risk to reap rewards, but there is no definitive causal relationship here. Just because you might be willing to pack up your wagon and head off into the sunset doesn’t ensure you’ll be rewarded with wealth. Today investors should be particularly diligent in assessing risk before setting off on any journey.
The Energy Information Administration (EIA) estimates the U.S. will become a net exporter of energy by as early as 2022, and the agency recently shared fresh data that supports the narrative that America is on the cusp of taking the throne as the world’s leading energy powerhouse.
In last week’s Investor Alert, our investment team shared with you a report from Morgan Stanley that says bitcoin’s price decline since December mimics the Nasdaq tech bubble in the late 1990s. This isn’t earth-shattering news in and of itself. The main difference is that the bitcoin rout happened at 15 times the rate as the tech bubble.
Investors will soon begin to realise that the investment environment we are entering is entirely unsuitable for index-tracking strategies, and that they will begin to exit what they have all piled into in recent years.
The great fee debate continues. I’ve heard a new paradigm coming into the market: advisors who charge no commissions or tiered fees, just a flat, annual retainer. It’s a nice idea but in reality they’re trading one bias for another – and I’ll explain why.
We heard a lot about valuations at my Strategic Investment Conference, and particularly about the “FAANG” stocks that drove much of the recent bull run. Now, only two weeks later, the “F” in that acronym (Facebook) is tumbling, with the others maybe not far behind. That’s a problem for every stock investor, FAANG or otherwise. So today we’ll look at valuations more broadly and then zero in on the social networking issues that are turning more problematic.
In many respects, economists are a little unusual. We think in odd ways, and we arrange data into odd patterns. We find it hard to reach conclusions without significant equivocation.
Blackstone is pleased to offer the following Market Commentary by Byron Wien which shares his thinking on global economic developments, market insights and other factors that may influence investment opportunities and strategies.
The global expansion is either nearing its demand-driven peak or in the early stages of a supply-driven renaissance. We share our assessment and portfolio positioning.
Here’s my call for 2018: Most robo-advisors are going to fail. Read on to see why I don’t drink the Robo Kool-Aid that the financial industry and media are serving up.
The US financial sector faced heavy scrutiny in the wake of the global financial crisis of 2008-2009, but the end result was that banks emerged in better shape overall, according to Shawn Lyons, vice president and portfolio manager, Franklin Templeton Fixed Income Group.
He was on the receiving end of the passes from Drew Brees that led the New Orleans Saints to victory in the 2009 Super Bowl. But what distinguishes Marques Colston from his fellow ex-NFL players and other retired athletes is his successful post-professional career.
The current US equity bull market turned nine years old on March 9, 2018. That’s the second longest run without a correction of 20% on record. It’s natural to wonder if the tide is going to turn.
