Most people think desperation is a bad thing. I say the opposite; it’s the origin of massive success. Even if you feel like you’ve “made it,” there’s always somebody smarter who can put you out of business.
The reality is that we can’t control outcomes; the most we can do is influence the probability of certain outcomes which is why the day to day management of risks and investing based on probabilities, rather than possibilities, is important not only to capital preservation but to investment success over time.
Global airlines are expected to log their 10th straight year of profitability—an industry first. And with incomes expanding worldwide, air travel demand is projected to outpace economic growth for the next couple of decades.
It makes little difference to our portfolios whether recession strikes in 2019 or 2020. The benchmarks will drop between 40 and 50%—some more, some less. To the extent that you are exposed to stocks and other financial markets, your portfolio is going to take a hit.
Will emerging markets stocks rebound in 2019? Attractive valuations, strong forecast earnings growth, structural reforms, and an abating dollar headwind suggest they will.
The process of creating The Ten Surprises begins in the summer when I organize four lunches in the Hamptons for serious investors. About 100 people attend including hedge fund managers, private equity titans and even some academics. One of the benefits of this is that it gives me some clarity on where the consensus is, and that is essential before the Surprises can be determined.
Billionaire Sam Zell just announced that he bought gold for the very first time in his life because, as he puts it, “it is a good hedge.” In a recent Bloomberg interview, the Equity International founder and creator of the real estate investment trust (REIT) admitted to seeing an opportunity in gold’s increasing supply shortage.
They say that there are no atheists in fox holes. Recently it has also become clear there are no monetary hawks in bear markets. For much of...
With debt levels rising globally, economic growth on the long-end of the cycle, interest rates rising, valuations high, and a potential risk of a recession, the uncertainty of retirement plans has risen markedly. This lends itself to the problem of individuals having to spend a bulk of their “retirement” continuing to work.
This week’s letter focuses on China’s economy. We’ll look at some numbers showing the challenges China faces, but they don’t explain something important. The way China will meet those challenges is going to be substantially different than we would see in the West.
Diesel engines have found themselves in the crosshairs lately, with a number of European cities banning them outright. One of the beneficiaries of this policy has been palladium, used mostly in the production of pollution-scrubbing catalytic converters.
I wrote about the big-picture effects of the government shutdown the other day, which are likely to be longer term. As it continues, though, the shorter-term effects continue to pile up. As such, it is time to take a look at what the shutdown means now and over the next month or so.
GMO's Martin Tarlie argues in a new white paper that the U.S. stock market was a bubble from early 2017 through much of 2018, and that the bubble started to deflate in Q4 2018, despite strong fundamentals.
Stocks have rebounded off the lows but we don’t think we’re off to the races; issues remain and investors should remain vigilant.
It’s been two years since our initial research on populism, and populist-inspired policies continue to advance today on multiple fronts. As we see it, investors should expect more of the same ahead—influencing everything from global economic growth and inflation to policies directed specifically at the corporate sector.
It appears the “Powell Put” has been exercised as the Fed chief declares no “pre-set” course on rates and no “hesitation” to change its balance sheet runoff. But does the economy still need Fed accommodation, or do markets just want it?
How might 2019 shape up across the investment landscape? Here’s our take on the key issues to pay attention to.
Business uncertainty resulting from trade frictions will continue to put downward pressure on economic growth. As a result, investor confidence may remain fragile (recent price declines appear to reflect this). Concerns are unlikely to dissipate soon, but we contend that international growth stocks represent a good investment opportunity.
Whether you follow a systematic approach to growth or are looking for an “easy button,” growth hacks are a path that any practice, team or individual advisor can leverage.
It is a light economic calendar without any of the most important reports. The government shutdown will command increasing attention as long as it continues. Finally, there is some real competition in financial news – the start of earnings season.
Numerous uncertainties weighed on investor sentiment in 2018 and led to a down year for emerging markets overall, although the fourth quarter saw some outperformance versus developed markets.
In the fourth quarter, Dividend Yield was also a strong competitor.
The evolution of artificial intelligence (AI) has rarely been far from the headlines in recent years. Its influence now reaches into nearly every sector and geography and holds economic and political ramifications that many experts say are on par with the start of the Industrial Revolution in the 18th Century.
Goldman Sachs is bullish on commodities and gold, recommending an overweight position for both. The investment bank also raised its 12-month price forecast for gold up to $1,425 an ounce, a level last seen in August 2013.
Markets struggle to price new risks, and the U.S. government shutdown grows in severity.
Americans like to think we are insulated from the world. We have big oceans on either side of us. Geopolitically, they serve as buffers. But economically they connect us to other important markets that are critical to many US businesses. Problems in those markets are ultimately problems for the US, too.
The past year was a rough ride for bond investors. Will 2019 deliver more of the same?
Richard Thaler and Emmanuel Roman discuss behavioral science and investing.
Free from a house view on economies, markets or stocks, J O Hambro CapitalManagement’s (JOHCM) fund managers invariably see the world in different ways. We asked a number of our managers for their thoughts on the outlook for their asset class next year, what they would like to see and the possible surprises that 2019 could bring.
Steuern! I always liked that word, it seems to exude a no nonsense seriousness. It’s a German verb meaning Control, or to be in control of, something that seems to have been singularly lacking in the markets these last few days.
The U.S. economy will overcome risks and continue to grow in 2019.
Jeffrey Gundlach said that 2019 will mark the start of a period when bond markets must reckon with the rising federal deficit. In his most passionate comments ever on this topic, he said the exploding national debt and liabilities involving pension funds, state and local government governments and Social Security have reached a stage that is “totally unthinkable.”
Talk about destroying a narrative. On Friday, the Labor Department reported 312,000 new jobs in December, with an additional 58,000 from upward revisions to prior months. Recession talk got crushed.
One of the possible implications of a less aggressive Fed in 2019 is a weaker dollar. And once the dollar starts to lose ground relative to other world currencies, the price of gold could rocket up to as much as $1,500 in the blink of an eye.
It can be difficult to remain calm in the midst of stock market action like we’ve seen over the past couple of months—but discipline is necessary during more tumultuous times. Although we do see rising risk of a recession, we don’t see a repeat of 2008 in the cards. Absent a recession—even if we enter a “formal” bear market (at its recent closing low, the S&P was down 19.8%)—additional weakness may be somewhat limited. Recession-related bears tend to be longer and grizzlier than non-recession bears. Until we get more clarity on the health of the economy, we continue to suggest investors remain defensive.
Major economies are positioned to keep growing in the year ahead, but risks are mounting.
The January Absolute Return Letter is always about the pitholes one could fall into in the year to come and, lo and behold, financial markets are behaving as if we have already fallen into one. December was a most difficult month, and January hasn't exactly started with all guns blazing either.
In September, this year looked like it was going to be one of the great years for the Ten Surprises. Oil was at $75 (West Texas Intermediate) and the S&P 500 was at 2,940. The Surprises had oil at $80 and the S&P at 3,000. The Ten Surprises are judged on whether they work out at some point during the year, not where they are at year-end.
There’s no sugarcoating it: 2018 was hard on emerging markets. But as Nietzsche (and Kelly Clarkson) said, what doesn’t kill you can make you stronger. And as 2019 begins, we see many pockets of strength—and opportunity.
Early in 2018 we said the US economy has gone from being a Plow Horse to Kevlar. Nothing that has been thrown at the economy since – neither trade conflicts nor tweets, not higher short-term interest rates nor the correction in stocks – is likely to pierce that armor.
Which blog posts generated the most interest from readers in 2018? We wrap up the year with a look back at our favorites.
When the “bull is running” we believe we are smarter and better than we actually are. We take on substantially more risk than we realize as we continue to chase market returns and allow “greed” to displace our rational logic. Just as with gambling, success breeds overconfidence as the rising tide disguises our investment mistakes.
With only one trading day left in 2018, the price of gold has so far beaten the S&P 500 Index for the month of December, the fourth quarter and the year. What might surprise some readers is that it’s also outperformed the market for the century.
The Federal Open Market Committee raise short-term interest rates for the fourth time in 2018 and signaled more to come in 2019, albeit most likely at a slower pace. Market participants overly focus on what the Fed will do instead of why the Fed will do what it does.
As global markets increasingly ponder how long US economic growth can continue, Franklin Equity Group’s Ed Lugo says he’s looking for potential investment opportunities outside the United States. He explains why he sees opportunities in Europe and Asia, despite concerns about Brexit negotiations and a slowing Chinese economy.
Stocks plunging to new lows on the year and to the lowest level since early 2017 is no way to bring in the holidays. Investors are in panic mode, with precious few precedence of this level of sustained selling outside of the 2008 meltdown.
Last Monday, Jeff Gundlach, famed bond fund manager and CIO of Doubleline, made an interesting comment during an interview with CNBC when he stated that the 10-year Treasury yield would top 6% by 2020 or 2021. 6% would be the highest yield since 2000.
What if Theranos, the company whose fraudulent activities were exposed in 2015, had been a hedge fund instead of a healthcare company? The comparison shows why investment “science” is not science.
Investors’ obsession with the flattening U.S. Treasury yield curve dominated headlines for much of 2018. A flattening yield curve occurs when short-term rates are rising faster than long-term rates, which may eventually lead to an inverted yield curve, where short-term rates are higher than long-term rates. Historically, this has been a negative signal for the U.S. economy, often providing an early warning of an eventual recession, which is why the yield curve has been garnering so much attention recently.
Great articles don’t always get the readership they deserve. Here are another 10 that you might have missed, but I believe merit reading…
