Based upon our model research and decades of experience in managing portfolios, we believe that now is a time to assume a bit more defensive posture towards portfolio allocations as the risk of a material correction...
In today’s missive, we would like to discuss the tribulation arising out of political scrutiny and the sectors or companies suffering at the hands of political football.
Trade tensions continue to plague confidence about the trajectory of economic growth. Trade tension-induced cost pressures, disrupted supply chains, capital tied up in excess inventories, and the uncertainty which impedes business investment plans continue to be headwinds.
The opioid crisis in the U.S. is a true tragedy, but drug distributors are not responsible for it – an important point to remember when you read another heartbreaking article.
A small "insurance" rate cut by the FOMC later this month appears warranted given ongoing weakness in housing, but the balance of the macro data remains positive, meaning a recession starting in 2019 is unlikely.
Is venture capital a good investment? For long periods in the past, the best VC firms had spectacular returns, as their outside investors or “limited partners” participated in the emergence of great companies such as Intel, Microsoft, Apple, and Amazon. But, going forward, can VC investors expect the same returns? Or are we in a new era of lower returns and a more challenging environment?
This is part of an ongoing series of a discussion between Ray Dalio and myself. Today’s installment, adapted from a letter I wrote several years ago, addresses the philosophical problem he is trying to address: income and wealth inequality.
I’m very pleased to say that a satisfactory agreement was reached between HIVE and its strategic partner, Genesis Mining, so that the company can once again return to creating value for its shareholders.
The quarter was a good one for investors, overcoming fears of an all-out U.S.-China trade war. The S&P 500 index rose roughly 4% for the quarter and was up ~17% for the year. It was the market’s best first half performance since 1997 and extended the more than decade long bull market.
Over the past decade, exploration and production companies (“producers”) have been in a land grab battle as shale oil resources (“shale oil plays”) have emerged across the United States.
Clearly there is an opportunity for advisors to leverage Batman’s uncanny ability to adapt and prepare.
I have joined a “lifestyle practice,” meaning that the lead advisors care as much about their personal lives and other interests as they do about growing the firm.
Here are five advisory megatrends you must pay attention to build a thriving, sustainable firm and keep pace with the industry currents.
A change to global uncertainty will require a concrete settlement of key issues . While downside risks to the global outlook have not increased, they haven’t declined, either.
The economic calendar is a big one, featuring the employment situation report on Friday. The rest of the data – ADP employment, auto sales, and the ISM surveys – will be released over 2 ½ days. The US Independence Day celebration on Thursday will provide one type of fireworks.
As of today, the current economic expansion is the longest in US history. Ten years and a day. But just because it's the longest doesn't mean it's the best. The expansions of the 1960s, 1980s, and 1990s, all beat it out both in terms of the pace of growth as well as the total growth during the cycle...
Like Batman, investors cannot resort to superhuman powers when investing. Instead, knowledge, analytical skills and ingenuity are paramount for success. Asset allocation, diversification and risk management are essential dynamics to consider as volatility moves higher.
Advocates of MMT insist that governments can and should print as much money as needed to fund massive public works, guarantee government jobs for the unemployed and much more. This is a recipe for runaway hyperinflation.
In the following commentary, Portfolio Manager Ryan Kelley discusses the drivers behind the strong growth in the natural gas market in 2018, how tight inventories might cause more volatility in the gas price and the outlook for continued growth in natural gas exports.
As we review the general state of the global economy and investment markets, the word that keeps running through our mind is “asymmetrical”. We believe that the underlying fundamentals remain generally positive, but the market increasingly is “priced for perfection” and subject to downside shocks if what’s being priced in turns out differently than expected.
When I landed in the brand-new airport in Nigeria’s capital of Abuja I was taken by the modern and cavernous nature of its terminal, a reflection of the country’s future ambitions. One of Africa’s best airports, in Accra, Ghana, also boasts a new terminal.
An escalation in trade-war tensions between China and the U.S. has sparked a slowdown in global growth and a yield-curve inversion. Could global central bank easing and China stimulus turn the tide?
The so-called “Trade War” between the United States and China has US investors scrambling for a new answer, and it may just lie in China’s consumer-friendly, high-growth opportunity market. But is there enough upside to make the volatile risk more worthwhile?
To promote your financial services using content marketing, start by harnessing the power of your own website, social media and email marketing tools.
Why is free cash flow so important in common stock selection? First, you must think like the owner of an entire business. As a sole owner, the cash flow leftover after all obligations are paid is all yours. The more of it you get, the richer you are!
After breaking out of a five-year trading range this week, gold surged above $1,400 for the first time since 2013 on expectations of a U.S. rate cut. Meanwhile, the global pool of negative-yielding bonds hit a fresh record high $13 trillion.
With the passing of Reg BI, consumers’ minimum expectations are going to change, so the differentiation factor in your marketing needs to as well.
Ray Dalio has done us all a service by pointing out some rarely mentioned elephants in the room (some tinged with pink). We discuss various parts but seldom the entire creature. By that, I mean the rapidly growing potential for “progressive” control of both Congress and the White House.
What’s wrong with oil? Lately, that’s a question we’ve been frequently asked, especially from those who have noticed the favorable, supply side-related geopolitical factors around the world.
When choosing a factor-based strategy, advisors should carefully scrutinize the fund;s construction rules (e.g., the number of securities held) and implementation strategy (e.g., the frequency of rebalancing and the use of patient, algorithmic trading).
The Fed got as dovish as it could get today without actually cutting short-term rates.
China will be launching a Nasdaq-style stock market for technology and research-driven companies to list and raise capital. While it has some detractors, Franklin Templeton Emerging Markets Equity believes this upcoming board is of strategic importance to China.
The eurozone economy has experienced a sharp slowdown since the second half of 2018 in a reversal from the mini-boom enjoyed in 2017.
The “rise of the middle class” has been a ubiquitous theme touted by emerging market (EM) investors for several years.
A few key economic reports have taken a turn for the better, boosting expected real GDP growth in the second quarter and pointing to an upward revision to first quarter growth.
Once you get a lead from an on-line service, like SmartAsset, how do you get the person to agree to a meeting without creeping them out?
Billionaire investor Paul Tudor Jones, founder of and hedge fund manager at Tudor Investment Corp., said this week that geopolitical disruptions have made gold his favorite trade for the next 12 to 24 months.
Last week, I basically agreed with Ray’s analysis of US income and wealth disparity. It obviously exists. The question is what, if anything, can we do about it? I think this is an important conversation, not just between two people but throughout the entire nation. The answers will make a huge difference to both our society and our children’s futures. Not to mention our own futures.
In good times, we often see the notion "this time it's different" work its way into the marketplace as investors seek to rationalize higher asset prices and continued upward movement. Today this sentiment is expressed in contexts ranging from questioning the prospect of a recession altogether to supporting the high valuations of tech companies despite their current profitless state. In his latest memo, Howard Marks discusses the outlook for nine such theories. It would truly have to be different this time around for them to hold.
Over the last decade, strong growth in production has allowed the U.S. to become a net exporter of natural gas. Both pipeline exports to Mexico and liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports to the rest of the world, especially Asia, have been growing rapidly, and significant further growth is forecast.
As global growth prospects have weakened, the world of central banking has been turned upside-down. But while the US Federal Reserve (Fed) has already hinted at a change of course, the European Central Bank (ECB) is still struggling to adapt to the new reality.
Stocks surged last Friday following a U.S. jobs report that, to put it mildly, fell far below expectations. At first, this might seem counterintuitive. Shouldn’t signs of a slowing economy act as a wet blanket on Wall Street?
If you believe you’re a good person and that what you offer adds value to others’ lives, then why would you want to rob anyone out of the opportunity to buy what you have to sell?
Here’s how you can slay the tax beast and help your clients minimize the impact of taxes.
Thirty years ago, troops descended upon Tiananmen Square to forcibly remove protestors who were agitating for democracy, an end to corruption and a more inclusive political system. Details remain unsettled, but hundreds of students were killed or injured.
Emerging markets (EM) assets had a favorable first quarter likely driven by an improvement in external funding conditions and global central bank moves toward policy accommodation. EM credit outperformed the more volatile EM local debt over the period.
During the course of the last two years, we have consistently indicated that the course for the U.S. economy, along with risk assets and rates, was contingent on the impact of any unexpected exogenous events, most likely from overseas.
It's been a noisy few months for macro. The prolonged government shutdown in December significantly delayed many data reports.
Americans’ trust in institutions, from the federal government to the news media, has been deteriorating for decades. But I continue to have great faith in gold as a store of value during times of economic and geopolitical uncertainty.
While many savvy economists should have seen this coming, as late as October of last year, almost no one in the financial world thought that the Fed would so easily abandon its long-held bias without a gale force recession blowing them off course. But, in reality, all it took was a light breeze to force a 180-degree turnaround.
