Several rumblings in the quarter raised concerns about an imminent market crash. Another distinctive possibility is that the bubble of "airy promises" and overly optimistic growth expectations is bursting.
Brian Smedley is head of macroeconomic and investment research at Guggenheim Partners. In this interview, he explains why his team is forecasting a recession in mid-2020 and how advisors should position portfolios in response.
The United Nations-supported PRI has made strides in changing the global attitude to responsible investing.
Psychology is the reason most investors fail to keep up with the markets, and why contrarian strategies have turned in consistently superior performance over time. This same inability to understand psychology is often why academics don’t incorporate its use and instead stay with what may be flawed modern portfolio theory.
Tourism has traditionally helped peace and understanding spread across borders, and we’re hopeful that it will do the same today. It’s also good for commerce, especially for airlines and the travel industry in general.
Economic changes have made future planning increasingly difficult for government retirement systems, private pension plans, and individual investors. How do you generate a reliable income stream for an uncertain but potentially lengthy lifespan in a world where interest rates are barely above zero and possibly below it?
The US-China trade conflict has remained at the forefront of investor concerns in recent months, with both governments imposing tariffs on each other’s goods. While continued tensions are likely to result in continued market volatility, Franklin Templeton Emerging Markets Equity nonetheless finds reasons to be positive about emerging markets, with a more dovish global central bank backdrop offering support.
As investors, we can learn a great deal from the past about the businesses we are contemplating investing in. However, as investors, we must also recognize that we can only truly invest in the future.
A review of last month’s market-moving events across countries and asset classes.
With geopolitical risks rising and the global economy remaining in a soft period, Nikko Asset Management’s Global Investment Committee examines key issues impacting the global markets and where they’re finding overlooked investment opportunities.
As the financial markets enter what I expect to be a rather disruptive completion to the recent speculative half-cycle, it will be helpful for investors to consider certain propositions that are readily available from history, rather than insisting on re-learning them the hard way.
Learn the potential benefits of a harmonized investment approach to your organization's DB and DC plans.
Acknowledging that losses are part of business is one thing; taking and accepting those losses in the markets is something else entirely.
The ISM Manufacturing Index fell further into contraction in September, while the Non-Manufacturing Index slowed (consistent with a continued expansion in the overall economy, but at a slower pace). The Employment Report was a mixed bag. Nonfarm payrolls rose by 136,000 in the initial estimate for September, with a net upward revision of +45,000 to July and August.
Testing times for relations in this challenging epoch.
In the past three years, oil and gas discoveries made by conventional means have fallen to an incredible seven-decade low. What’s more, a “significant rebound is not expected,” says IHS Markit. Find out what’s driving discoveries lower!
Valuation multiples have been stretched to the point that stocks have failed to go meaningfully higher even as interest rates have come down. This means that there will need to be a recovery in leading fundamental indicators, and not just rate cuts, before equity markets can rebound sustainably.
On the 80th anniversary of the iconic movie’s release, CIO Larry Adam draws parallels between the film’s themes and today’s financial markets.
The fourth quarter of 2019 kicked off with a market selloff and more evidence that a protectionist push is hitting the U.S. industrial sector. How are our asset views faring this year to date–and what are the key themes we see shaping markets in the months ahead?
It has been a good year for U.S. investors. The global economic slowdown and geopolitical turmoil created a nearly irreversible thirst for super safe assets...
The press has been reporting on a trade spat between Japan and South Korea, ostensibly tied to South Korean anger over Japan’s behavior in the runup to World War II. The dispute is only the latest chapter in a long history of conflict between Korea and Japan.
With $13 trillion of investment grade corporate and government bonds having negative yields, fixed income investors are increasingly looking at higher yielding emerging market debt.
Despite all the lurid headlines about the trade war causing a recession in the United States or some kind of collapse in China and its Asian neighbors, recent economic data reveal a very different picture: the main victim has been Europe. But, fortunately for the European economy, overdependence on foreign trade is not the whole story.
While U.S. stocks emerged out of their tight range a couple weeks ago, they have yet to surpass their July highs—as trade uncertainties remain, economic data continues to be mixed, and cloudy monetary policy and political outlooks persist.
A classic approach to economic theory suggests low GDP growth in the years to come. Why and what to do about it is what this month’s Absolute Return Letter is about. Next month, we’ll look at the impact of advanced robotics – why a rapidly ageing workforce might not be the problem it is often portrayed as. Could robots simply replace humans in the work process?
Businesses and investors are moving ahead with progressive actions despite policy vacuums.
In Part I, we reviewed the U.S. current account problem, examined how the persistent deficit affects the economy, and discussed how the U.S. current account deficit is tied to American hegemony and ways the deficit could be addressed.
At some point the global economy will get a dose of reflation. Whether that comes from the current central bank easing cycle, fiscal policy response, coordinated fiscal-monetary action, or a détente in the US-Sino trade dispute is not yet known.
Despite a resurgence in popularity, some advisors are reluctant to reenter the volatility products that saw so much turmoil last February. This introductory article will address some of those concerns, discuss the present VIX landscape, and help explain what really happened on February 5, 2018.
Last week’s That Time Keynes Had a Point letter brought many more comments than usual. Apparently Keynes is still provocative 73 years after his death, no matter what you say about him. But my real point was about the twisted economic thought that is having dangerous effects on us all. And we can’t blame it just on Keynes.
In a nutshell, we concluded that the global economy is about to enter a low-growth “window of weakness,” which we expect to persist going into 2020 with heightened uncertainty about whether it is a window to recovery or recession.
Given the backdrop of a slowing global economy and shaky investor sentiment tied to trade tensions, Franklin Templeton Multi-Asset Solutions’ Ed Perks and Gene Podkaminer are calling for an active investment approach.
Critics of the federal deficit should recognize the imperfect nature of the debt-to-GDP ratio. By a more reasonable measure, our fiscal indebtedness is not high by historical standards.
Some clients are surprised at how I look at critical financial decisions. But when I reframe them from the conventional way of looking at those decisions, I can get clients to shift longstanding beliefs and make changes.
The whole debt bubble, the income and wealth inequality angst, a growing deficit which will get worse after the next recession, and lack of economic understanding among voters is all coming home to roost. Better to think about that now, while we can still act and maybe even change things.
With global markets growing more volatile, we’re often asked what we think are the most underappreciated risks that investors face today. One in particular stands out: currency risk—especially for non-US dollar–based investors.
Fintech can bring tremendous benefits to emerging markets but mimicking China’s success in the space might be unwise.
An industry veteran—and slacker—shares his perspective on reaching and communicating with Generation X clients.
In this interview, Jeffrey Germain and Matthew Johnson of Brandes Investment Management explain why U.S. investors suffer from a “home country bias” and discuss the compelling opportunities outside the U.S.
I have been reading Shad Rowe’s prose since the 1970s when he wrote a column for Forbes’s magazine. More recently Shad and I met in his Dallas office to discuss the markets, stocks and his investment style. That was about six or seven years ago.
Fed is set to ease, ECB eases and mortgage refinancing takes off.
The price of gold has beaten the S&P 500 Index over a number of different time periods, even the century (so far!). The yellow metal, however, has also outperformed arguably the greatest living investor, Warren Buffett.
While the clear majority of mutual funds provide daily liquidity, it's not guaranteed. This is why understanding the potential risks to liquidity is key.
Am I the only one who is growing concerned about the current trajectory of the financial planning profession?
Once a year, I post a list of investing rules of great investors in history. Experience is a valuable commodity and these rules can keep you from learning the hard way.
The Northern Trust Economics team shares its outlook for U.S. economic growth, inflation, unemployment and interest rates.
The ISM surveys for August were mixed and the employment report disappointed, but investors were encouraged by prospects for U.S./China trade talks, which are set to resume at a high level in early October.
Taxes are going to cost you a lot this year. By how much, you're wondering? Let’s start first by looking back.
