Water raises the risks of conflict, civil unrest and economic pain in many parts of the world.
Negative interest rates have more cons than clear pros.
The negative rate experiment has ended. What comes next?
The Northern Trust Economics team shares its outlook for major markets, with a spotlight on China.
Corporate taxes illustrate the complexity of global policy coordination.
The World Trade Organization is struggling to settle international tensions.
Immigration is a vital source of economic growth.
One of the pleasant surprises of 2023 was how quickly inflation decelerated in major economies. Most of the good news came from falling goods prices.
As the U.S economy continues to expand at a nice rate of speed, the eurozone is stuck in a pitstop. Though the common currency region was able to avoid a technical recession last year, preliminary estimates show that activity stagnated in the fourth quarter of 2023.
Gross domestic product (GDP) is often considered the most important indicator of the health of an economy. But there are other measures that provide different perspectives, which can be more timely and impartial. The level of equity markets is one such indicator that provides a window into what’s going on.
The likelihood of another severe bout of inflation from higher shipping costs alone is low.
EU nations have compromised on paths toward fiscal balance.
The economics team shares a few things that have been on our minds.
The economics teams looks back at the most significant stories we covered during 2023.
The ECB will pivot in 2024, but probably not as early or swiftly as markets predict.
The Canadian economy is buckling under the weight of higher interest rates, household debt and immigration.
The Northern Trust Economics team shares its outlook for U.S. growth, employment, interest rates and inflation.
Housing markets are cooling but unlikely to end in a bust.
Forecasting economic outcomes is a challenging exercise, even under steady conditions. Geopolitical events have only added to the complexity facing economies worldwide.
The longer the U.S. debt is left to grow, the harder it will be to correct.
The U.S. economy’s remarkable resilience is complicating the lives of investors and the Federal Reserve. Despite war-disrupted commodity markets and one of the most aggressive monetary tightening phases in modern history, economic activity has remained strong.
Reverting to old fiscal rules will create a strong economic headwind for Europe.
The BoE will have to do more to bring inflation back down to target.
India will need to think beyond physical assets to continue its growth.
The Northern Trust Economics team shares its outlook for major markets in the months ahead.
A hard landing in China would rattle Asian economies.
Restricting the money supply will help contain inflation.
Disrupted global trade is weighing on Germany's performance.
Supply chains are realigning, to China's dismay.
Return to office mandates are growing, but workers are hesitant to give up flexibility.
A change in Turkey's economic policies was long overdue.
Corporate profits are being challenged by market forces, diminishing pricing power.
Low commodity prices are containing inflation in emerging markets.
There is renewed anxiety among central bankers in the face of sticky inflation.
We review the key themes of the first half of a busy year.
The Northern Trust Economics team shares its outlook for U.S. growth, employment, interest rates, and inflation.
Volatile input prices have been a major inflationary force.
A perennial challenge faced by all big or small, developed or developing economies is achieving sustainable economic growth that boosts standards of living and financial stability. Globalization has been the road that brought economies to that destination.
In many respects, COVID-19 was not a temporary disruption.
Inflation is one way the U.K. is paying for leaving Europe.
Hong Kong’s currency and financial stability are not under immediate threat.
Macroeconomic and geopolitical hurdles are slowing the full recovery of tourism.
A wage-price spiral isn't imminent in Europe, but inflation may take a while to descend.
The Fed is likely to lay the groundwork for a pause, and push back against an early pivot.
