The Municipal Bonds Channel

Five Ways to Keep Your Muni Portfolio on Track in 2018

They are the primary objectives of municipal bond investing: Safety. Income. After-tax return. But the market doesn’t always provide the ideal environment, and the coming year looks to be no exception. How can muni investors avoid getting knocked off course in 2018? They can adhere to these five strategies.

Bonds’ Day of Reckoning

In the 9th year of this bull market, investors remain overweight bonds in an environment poised to drastically limit fixed income returns. It’s time to avoid bonds’ day of reckoning.

Q1 2018: Goldilocks Need Not Fear the Bear in 2018...But Her Respite Will Be More Fitful

Tina Byles Williams, CIO and CEO of FIS Group, has just published the latest Q1 2018 Market Outlook, which delves into predictions for the year ahead, from a more challenging environment for risk assets to geopolitical tensions on the horizon.

Fads, Manias and Bubbles!

It is important to separate mini-manias from true bubbles. Unfortunately, the difference is mostly the amount of money chasing the folly. Millions and even billions of dollars lost (and thousands of jobs) equate to fads, while trillions of dollars lost (and rampant unemployment and recessions) are bubbles.

To Be (20)17 Again

Like much of 2017, politics remained keenly in focus at the end of the year. Tax reform took center stage in the U.S., and President Trump wrapped up this major legislative victory just in time for the holidays. The sweeping tax overhaul moved quickly through both chambers of Congress after the House and Senate drafted amended versions from the separate ones each had previously passed.

Valuing Uncertainties

As we enter 2018, numerous uncertainties are dominating the minds of American citizens and investors. We are happy to weigh in on what we consider to be both un-useful and useful uncertainties as they pertain to long duration ownership of common stocks.

Encouraging Backdrop for Investors as 2018 Gets Under Way

As the new year begins to unfold, the environment for risk assets is still benign: the global economy is strong, monetary policy is accommodative, and volatility is low and steady. At this point, we don’t see excesses developing that could change that.

When Speculation Has No Limits

Here we are, nearly three times the level at which I expect the S&P 500 to complete this cycle. Yet our immediate outlook remains neutral (though tail-risk hedges remain appropriate). It’s essential to distinguish between valuations, which have long-term implications, and market internals, which have implications for shorter segments of the market cycle.

Tax Reform: A Year-End Bonus for Fixed Income?

Despite the near non-stop drama of the legislative process, we ended December with the Tax Cut and Jobs Act of 2017 being signed into law. What does this mean for fixed income investors? In my opinion, the news is overwhelmingly positive for the US investment grade market; here are four reasons why.

Global Market Outlook & Market Update- As Good as It Gets

At the height of this eight-year bull market, we are trying to reconcile the notion that the markets and the global economy may be “as good as it gets” with the potential that as a result of technological change and increased market volatility, “the best may be yet to come.”

Dylan Grice: Three Untrue “Truths” in Our Age of Disruption

Challenging conventional wisdom is a mainstay of financial conference speakers. I have seen few do so as effectively as Dylan Grice, who dismissed three mainstays of accepted beliefs, most notably that the value premium will deliver risk-adjusted outperformance.

Albert Edwards: The Trigger for the Next Market Correction

Fear of overvaluation – particularly for U.S. equities – has driven far too many investors to miss the strong bull market. For market bears to be proven right, according to Albert Edwards, it will take one or more of several triggers.

Low Spreads + Low Inflation = Low Volatility

Russ discusses why the real economy and financial market conditions offer more clues about volatility than political noise.

What Do Higher Interest Rates Mean for Investments?

With interest rates rising recently, I have received a number of questions about what that means for our investments. It’s not as simple a question as you might think. As such, it is worth taking some time to think things through.

Recipe Calls for a Broad Commodities Rally in 2018

At the beginning of every year, we update what’s typically one of our most popular pages, the Periodic Table of Commodity Returns. I encourage you to explore 10 years’ worth of data on basic materials such as aluminum, zinc and everything in between. A word of warning, though—the interactive feature makes the table highly addictive.