High Yield Market Update
The U.S. high yield bond market has grown substantially to around $1.3 trillion today. At the same time, the global high yield market has become more geographically diverse. North America’s share of the market has fallen from 87.1% in 2005 to 62.6% in 2016.
Myths and Misconceptions
History shows, and investment strategists tout, that small cap stocks are the best performing asset class. While small caps outperformed the runner-up, large cap stocks, over the last nearly 100 years, research has shown that the outperformance hasn’t persisted over all multi-year time periods and that the outperformance is concentrated in microcap stocks.
The German Election and Markets
What might the German election mean for markets?
World Markets Update
All eight indexes on our world watch list have posted gains for 2017 through September 18. The top performer thus far is Hong Kong's Hang Seng with a gain of 28.0%, followed by India's BSE SENSEX at 21.77%. In third is our own S&P 500 with 11.84%.
Interest Rate Outlook: Long-Term US Rates Could Rise on Global Growth and Stabilizing Inflation
Invesco Fixed Income shares its views on rates around the world.
On My Radar – Forward We Go
Last week, investors were lamenting the lack of inflation. This week, they’re fixated on its rise. On Thursday, data showed consumer prices climbed 0.4% in August from a month earlier and 1.9% from a year earlier, a sign that inflation is once again on the upswing after months of soft readings.
S&P 500 Snapshot: At 2500, All-Time High to End Week
The S&P opened Friday near its Thursday close and began to climb around 2pm. The index closed the day over 2500, another all-time high and a 0.18% gain from Thursday. The index is up 11.68% YTD.
Rolling with the Punches
A review of last month’s market-moving events across countries and asset classes.
Advisors Leveraging New Programs to Launch ETFs
Over three years $1.4 trillion moved into low-fee funds including ETFs, which are quickly becoming the most popular of 18 major vehicles. The complexity of launching an ETF and their operational overhead has kept many firms from launching funds. New programs now help firms launch and manage ETFs.
Vanguard’s Chief Economist – Automation is Not Killing Jobs
Rapid technological advances are transforming the global workplace. But fears that automation will permanently destroy American jobs are misplaced, according to Joe Davis. Instead, the jobs that require “uniquely human” skills will proliferate, Davis said.
Energy: The Perils of 'Volume over Value'
There’s an ongoing narrative about the energy industry that says exploration and production (E&P) companies are making money in unconventional shale plays, even with oil selling for only $50 a barrel. This is touted as a positive trend. But a deeper dive into energy company fundamentals suggests a vastly different story — one that prioritizes production volume over economic value.
On My Radar: Breathtaking Risks Yet Bullish Trend Persists
I’m writing to you from Chicago where I am attending the Morningstar ETF Conference. Vanguard’s global chief economist, Joe Davis, kicked off the event Wednesday evening advising investors to expect lower returns and rocky markets for the next two to three years.
The Future of the Global Economy
This letter will be the first of a series in which I outline my vision for the next 5–10–15–20 years of global economics. I understand that there is a substantial amount of hubris involved in such an undertaking, so I will approach the topic gingerly.
“There They Go Again . . . Again” of July 26 has generated the most response in the 28 years I’ve been writing memos, with comments coming from Oaktree clients, other readers, the print media and TV. I also understand my comments regarding digital currencies have been the subject of extensive – and critical – comments on social media, but my primitiveness in this regard has kept me from seeing them. The responses and the time that has elapsed have given me the opportunity to listen, learn and think. Thus I’ve decided to share some of those reflections here.