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Indonesia: Hope for Change
by Siddharth Bhargava of Matthews Asia,
On Wednesday, Indonesia went to the polls to elect its seventh president. Unofficial results predict Joko Widodo, or Jokowi, to be the winner in a very tight race with rival Prabowo Subianto. Widely considered a man of the people, Jokowi came from humble beginnings as a furniture salesman. Although still lacking in experience on the national stage, his leadership is expected to be a stark contrast from Prabowos likely authoritarian style.
Choosing Winners in Asian Credit: Key Trends and Themes
Key trends include Asian credit supply, which is on track for another record year in 2014, and China's priority to promote cleaner and more efficient energy. Our bottom-up research and careful risk assessments informed by macroeconomic perspectives have us favoring select investments in several sectors of Asian credit markets, including state-owned enterprises in China and Korea, investment grade new issues and Basel III Tier 2 bank capital bonds. ?
Harnessing Solar in China
by Teresa Kong of Matthews Asia,
China has revised its solar energy targets several times in recent years. This year, it has set even more aggressive targets for solar deployment. But it still has a long way to go before large-scale adoption is possible. This week, Teresa Kong writes about her visit to a small town outside of Beijing to see a Greenpeace solar project that is encouraging households and enterprises to consider going green. What are the barriers to smooth implementation?
I'm Grateful to Live in America. Here's Why.
An important principle of our investment process at U.S. Global Investors is a belief that government policies are a precursor to change. As a result, we closely monitor the fiscal, monetary and other impactful governmental policies of the worlds largest countries, both in terms of economic stature and population. Were always listening for the proverbial shot heard around the world. As we approach Americas Independence Day, this belief rings especially true.
The 2014 Mid-Year Geopolitical Update
As is our custom, we take the middle of the year to reflect on the current geopolitical situation. This report is less a series of predictions as it is a list of potential geopolitical issues that we believe will dominate the international landscape for the rest of the year. It is not designed to be exhaustive; instead, it focuses on the big picture conditions that we believe will affect policy and markets going forward. They are listed in order of importance: Americas Strategic Drift, Chinese Maritime Expansion, The German Problem, and The Remaking of the Middle East.
Health Care Sector Spurred by Population Growth and M&As
Recently I spoke with John Derrick, director of research here at U.S. Global, to pick his brain about what he thought was the most interesting sector right now. You might expect him to have said energy, perhaps because of the intensifying violence in Kurdistan Iraq, a major oil producer. But instead, he said that he had his eyes on health care.
You Don’t Have to Love Soccer
by Brian Andrew of Cleary Gull,
The FIFA World Cup (for soccer aka football) is in full swing. There are 32 teams from around the world treating a world-wide audience of nearly 2 billion to a great show of sport. The teams are competing for $576 million in prize money. And while the U.S. will not likely make it to the final match, the tournament does offer some insight into diverse economies around the globe and why we should consider international investments as a pillar in any portfolio.
The Rise of E-Commerce in Asia
Its no surprise that Asiahome to two of the worlds most populous countriesholds great potential for e-commerce. Much of this growth has been driven by the fact that e-commerce, particularly in India and China, has helped serve as a bridge between what people want and what people can get offline. This is especially true for those who live outside major urban areas.
Attractions of a "Walled Garden"
by Vivek Tanneeru of Matthews Asia,
Developments in free trade and a nurturing of open policies with relatively few barriers have helped Asia prosper for several decades now. But a restrictive walled garden environment, with tightly regulated market access, has nurtured Chinas Internet sector and helped its firms dominate in such areas as online search, games, news, e-commerce, social networking and videos. This week Vivek Tanneeru explores a study in contrasts between the Internet sectors of China and India, the worlds two most populous nations.
On-the-Ground Perspective in Thailand
Thailand has been in the throes of political crisis over the past few months, leading to the imposition of martial law in May after months of protests and threats of violence between two opposing groupsthe anti-government Peoples Democratic Reform Committee (PDRC), known as the yellow shirts, and the pro-government United Front for Democracy against Dictation (UDD), known as the red shirts.
Stiglitz: Europe's View on Inequality
by Marianne Brunet,
When you approach a crowd conversing over coffee at an economics conference, you don't normally expect to hear them giddily saying: "He's absolutely adorable! Adorable, and so sweet." But at a recent economics conference in Toulouse, France, participants were raving about Joseph Stiglitz like he was a movie star.
Is China Still Competitive?
by Andy Rothman of Matthews Asia,
Investment Strategist Andy Rothman recently moved to San Francisco from Shanghai, and has experienced a bit of sticker shock. This week he reflects upon China's ability to remain competitive. What does a visit to his favorite neighborhood noodle shop in China reveal about the country's macroeconomy?
New Faces at the Federal Reserve
by Craig Elder of Robert W. Baird,
The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is the monetary policymaking body of the Federal Reserve System. This article provides a behind the scenes look at recent changes in the composition of FOMC voters, characterizing them as a dove, focused more on higher employment, or a hawk , concerned more with the central banks inflation targets. One of the implications from this analysis is that the Fed will be more reluctant to raise interest rates next year than most people think.
A Quarter Century of Emerging-Markets Investing
At one time or another, every country could have been classified as emerging. Back in the 1800s, the Western part of the United States was called the new frontier. Investors purchasing farmland there were likely to consider it a highly speculative venture putting stakes in such a rugged and wild place.
US Regional Banks Attractiveness Jumps in June
Our Sector-level heat map looks much the same as it did last month, save for the fact that the shade of green has deepened for the Utilities and Financial Services sectorsindicating a larger number of companies screening undervalued according to YCharts Value Score.
Can Central Planners Revive Chinas Economic Miracle?
by John Mauldin of Mauldin Economics,
We are going to try gamely to finish with China today, having left at least three or four letters worth of copy on the editing floor. There is just so much information and misinformation to cover. Im going to turn it over to Worth and then follow up with a few final thoughts of my own.
China Leads the World in Green Energy, Gaming and Gambling Markets
Last month, Xian Liang, co-portfolio manager of our China Region Fund (USCOX), attended the 19th CLSA China Forum in Beijing. There he and hundreds of other global attendees were given the opportunity to meet with representatives from Chinese corporations, some of which U.S. Global owns. Xian also managed to get a sense of how the nation?s recent changes in consumer behavior and governmental policy reforms might affect its investment outlook. Although China remains an emerging market, it has lately taken a number of considerable strides to position itself as one of the world?s most
Ties that Bind
by Patricia Huang of Matthews Asia,
It's been almost three years since A-di first moved in with my relatives in Taiwan to work as a caretaker for my ailing grandmother. A college graduate from Indonesia with a reserved demeanor and an endearing smile, A-di, or Di Di as my family sometimes calls her, was found through an agency that places migrant workers in jobs abroad. Like her sister, a factory worker in Taiwan, she regularly sends a portion of her roughly US$550 monthly pay back home to her parents in West Java.
From Constantinople to Istanbul, Turkey Has Never Been Better
Every time he travels to Turkey, portfolio manager of our Emerging Europe Fund (EUROX), Tim Steinle, says the country continues to develop. Although technically classified as an emerging market, one wouldn?t think to label the country as such upon arrival. The population is young and growing, there are improvements to infrastructure everywhere you look, beautiful green parks are more prevalent, and the professional staffs that run many of the shops and businesses are both well organized and thriving.
The Growing Importance of Natural Gas
by Skip Aylesworth of Hennessy Funds,
The natural gas industry is experiencing a revolution. Fueled by advances in drilling technology, natural gas has become an abundant energy source and is quickly becoming Americas domestic energy solution. In fact, it is believed that we now have a 100-year supply in the U.S. even with increasing demand.
Seoul Searching
by Michael Han of Matthews Asia,
South Korea's Sewol ferry disaster in April has not only been one of the country's most tragic events in recent memory, it is also one that is leaving an indelible mark on Korean society. The incident claimed hundreds of young lives, led to a public outpouring of anger, capital punishment charges and several key resignations, including that of the Prime Minister.
Kyle Bass: The Looming Crises in Asia
by Robert Huebscher,
For the last several years, nobody has been more outspokenly bearish on Japan than Kyle Bass. In a recent talk, Bass reiterated his doubts about Japan's chances of averting a debt crisis. What's more, he also said China's economy will fall below expectations.
After Indias Election, Execution takes Center Stage for Debt Markets
by Jack Deino of Invesco Blog,
Financial markets in India have already rallied strongly in anticipation of the overwhelming majority win by incoming Prime Minister Narendra Modi and the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP). The countrys currency (the Indian rupee) rose 15% from its August peak, while five-year credit default swaps on the State Bank of India (SBI) tightened from a spread of 371 to 207 in the same period.
In a Flash, China Looks Strong
If you want to know where the world economy is headed, there is one number that I believe investors should focus on: the HSBC China Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI). On Thursday, the preliminary flash PMI for May came in at 49.7, beating Bloombergs consensus of 48.3.
Online Upstarts Challenge Chinese Banks
by Richard Gao of Matthews Asia,
Chinese banks have long operated under a protective environment in which deposit and lending rates have been managed in a rather tight band by the central bank. One advantage of these controls for the banks has been fixed net interest rate margins. But Chinas traditional state-owned banks have been pressured recently to try to keep depositors from seeking the higher yield products now offered by online Chinese financing firms.
Pacific Powers: Australia and Japan
Separated by nearly 4,000 miles of sea, the economies of Australia and Japan are often lumped together under the Asia Pacific (APAC) label. Both of these countries can be considered global powers and powerful GDP generators, but their economies, the challenges they face and their responses to those challenges have been very different. Don Huber, vice president, research analyst and portfolio manager, Franklin Equity Group, looks at how these APAC powers are navigating their unique issues and shares his market outlook for each.
Will Global Tensions Derail the US Recovery?
by Robert Huebscher,
It's not the Fed's monetary policy that investors should fear, but the "geopolitical tapering" undertaken by the Obama administration, contends Niall Ferguson, the Harvard historian. Ian Bremmer, the political scientist and chairman of the Eurasia Group, disagrees - despite some tactical missteps, he said, the current administration has achieved reasonable results.
Computer Tutor?!
by Jeffrey Saut of Raymond James,
My friend Jerry Goodman died recently. His nom de plume was Adam Smith, obviously taken from the legendary economist Adam Smith (1723 1790). In addition to the book The Money Game, Jerry wrote numerous other books. In his later years, he worked at another friends establishment, that being Craig Drill, eponymous captain of the insightful Drill Capital Management.
India: Counting Efficiently
by Rahul Gupta of Matthews Asia,
Indias massive election processinvolving more than 1 million polling stations and 800 million eligible votershas just drawn to a close. Despite being a poor country with annual GDP per capita on the lower end of Asian economies (at US$1,527), it is home to some of the worlds best IT and generic pharmaceutical companies. Electronic voting is one illustration of the dichotomies that are present in the rapidly changing nation. This weeks Asia Weekly explores the hurdles and the technology used to manage the worlds biggest democratic election exercise.
Schroders Monthly Markets Review: Overview of Markets in April 2014
Global equities edged higher in April. Some stronger macroeconomic data from developed economies helped to support returns but the ongoing crisis in Ukraine remained a headwind for equities. Developed markets outperformed emerging markets. In the US, a generally firmer tone to macroeconomic data and a broadly encouraging corporate earnings season supported sentiment. Investors were also reassured by comments from Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Janet Yellen about maintaining low interest rates.
El Nio
In our investing process, we look across the spectrum at a multitude of possible events, their probabilities, their effects on markets and weigh them against market prices. Sometimes these discrepancies come from unexpected places. This week we will explore the ramifications of a weather event, El Nio. The soft-commodity markets (grains, sugar, coffee, cocoa and other annual crops) seem to have priced in about a 20% likelihood of an El Nio occurrence this year, while last week the Climate Prediction Center issued a 65% probability for this summer.
Market Perspective
US equity markets have seen what we would describe as mild volatility over the last few weeks, mostly attributed to geopolitical tensions emanating from the Ukraine-Russia belligerence. For the first quarter, the S&P 500 rose 1.30%, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the NASDAQ composite were both down slightly.
Emerging Markets at Risk
by George Bijak of GB Capital,
The massive post-GFC Quantitative Easing (QE) in the USA, EU, and now in Japan has repaired the global banking systems balance sheet. Debt of various qualities, worth trillions of dollars, was moved from struggling banks to the central banks at book value where it is likely to run out to maturity or rollover.
Where Is the Inequality Problem?
by Kenneth Rogoff of Project Syndicate,
Though Thomas Piketty is right that returns to capital in rich countries have increased in the last few decades, he is too dismissive of the wide-ranging debate among economists concerning the causes. More important, when it comes to reducing inequality between rich and poor countries, capitalism has had an impressive three decades.
The Top Five Government Policies I’m Watching This Week
Every morning when I meet with the investment team, we review the news of the previous day, the movements of the markets around the world, and corporate actions that may affect our funds. This is how we keep our ears open in order to manage money that shareholders like you have entrusted us with. We meet again at lunchtime, daily, to share ideas, because something happening in China may affect the U.S. markets, or an energy company might have news that can benefit our domestic funds as well as our resources funds.
Housing may be returning to a bad neighborhood
by Team of Northern Trust,
The head of financial stability at the Bank of England recently called rising property prices ?the very brightest [hazard] light on its dashboard.? But he may have a difficult time getting his colleagues who are charged with promoting full employment to agree with him. And if they do, it is far from clear what they might do about the issue. Some favor supervisory curbs; others prefer the more-traditional method of raising rates. The recovery in global real estate has been pronounced. While it beats the alternative, one wonders whether the hard lessons learned in recent corrections have been su
Emerging Markets Outlook - April 2014
by Team of Thomas White International,
Emerging market equities as an asset class have been underperforming developed market equities for more than three years, though they continue to maintain the lead over 10-year returns. The divergence in returns between emerging and developed markets widened sharply in 2013, when the prospect of reduced capital inflows heightened investor concerns about slower economic growth in the emerging countries.
Down Under: Commodities to Consumption
by Tarik Jaleel of Matthews Asia,
Ever since China's demand for commodities intensified around 1999, its increased reliance on imported energy and minerals has underpinned Australia's boom in the natural resources industry. Naturally, as China's import growth has recently slowed, materials and energy sector firms in both Australia and New Zealand have grown cautious about their business prospects.
Global Ground Zero in Asia
by Nouriel Roubini of Project Syndicate,
The most pressing geopolitical issue of our time is not the prospect of conflict between Israel and Iran over nuclear proliferation or rising tensions between Russia and the West over Ukraine. It is the challenge of managing China's rise and ensuring that peace and prosperity prevail in Asia.
The Devolution of Diversification
by Chris Richey of Neosho Capital,
We are only some 40 years removed from an era when the typical investment account had 12 or fewer individu-al holdings, and less than 20 years removed from a time when respected stock funds might hold 20-30 stocks and be considered ?fully diversified?. Now we find that the typical active equity portfolio or fund holds between 50-100 individuals stocks and that there are generally three or more such active equity managers for each institutional or high net worth account, all adding up to hundreds of underlying holdings.
Results 3,551–3,600
of 4,282 found.
