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Tennis star Li Na exemplifies China's newfound entrepreneurial spirit.
by Patricia Huang of Matthews Asia,
After advancing to her first grand slam semifinals, Peng Shuai is China's newest late-career surprise at the U.S. Open. Her compatriot, tennis star Li Na, was the first Chinese player to claim a grand slam singles title, and her success has bolstered the sport's popularity back home in recent years. Both players were among the handful of pioneers to break from the country's state-sponsored teams to take greater control of their futures. This week Patricia Huang writes about China's newfound entrepreneurial spirit.
Emerging Markets Equity Commentary: July, 2014
by Team of Thomas White International,
Emerging market equity prices continued to outperform the developed markets in July and ended the month with moderate gains. Markets in Asia significantly outperformed during the month, helped by signs of stabilizing economic growth in major markets such as China.
Chinas Reforms Open New Path to Equities
For investors in China equities, there have traditionally been two ways of approaching the market: through expensive growth stocks, or risky contrarian plays. Now, thanks to Chinas reforms, theres a third way which may offer a better balance of risk and return.
A Nation of Shopkeepers
by John Mauldin of Mauldin Economics,
One of the great pleasures of writing this letter is the fascinating correspondence and the relationships that develop along the way. The internet has allowed me to meet a wide range of people all over the world something that never happened to me pre-1999. Not only do I get to meet a wide variety of people, I also come into contact with an even wider range of knowledge and ideas, much of which comes my way from readers who send me work they think Ill have an interest in. I have a bountiful, never-ending source of thoughtful material, thanks to you.
Assessing Corporate Credit Risk in Asia
by Satya Patel of Matthews Asia,
Investing in foreign markets requires a constant questioning of many long-held assumptions that underpin traditional security analysis. This issue of Asia Insight is the first in a series of commentaries to explore the fixed income themes of credit, currencies and interest rates. Given the complexities of Asias fixed income markets, we will examine the many considerations that investors need to take into account to fully appreciate the inherent risks of investing in this market.
Republic or Empire? An Update, Part 1
This topic was last discussed in our report from 2012. We have expanded sections of it in this update and, due to length, will present it in two parts. Over the past two years, how American society answers this question is becoming increasingly critical. There is a steady undercurrent in American politics that seeks to withdraw the U.S. from world affairs. In this report, we will discuss how the American republic began, how it evolved into an empire and how America conducted this role. Next week, we will finish our analysis and discuss market ramifications.
Why Gilead Is The Most Exciting Growth Opportunity In 2014
by Team of F.A.S.T. Graphs,
Earnings drive stock price in the long run and Gilead Sciences Inc (GILD) is entering a remarkable period of what could only be called astounding future earnings growth. This has not gone unnoticed by the market, as the stock price has been on a steady ascent for the past several months.
Managing Expectations - Part III
In the first of this three-part series on managing expectations, I discussed the role cycles play in the investment management process. At U.S. Global Investors, we actively monitor both short- and long-term cycles, from the annual seasonality of gold to four-year presidential elections, in order to manage expectations based on historical patterns.
Lifted by Germany and China
We briefly review the interplay of the global and regional (Europe and Asia) business cycles and where we stand. It turns out that the global business cycle is muddling through, continuing deceleration of China is still trying to find bottom and Germany recently turned the corner and is back to deceleration. While this state of affairs is no news the interesting aspect of this regional interplay which we want to bring to your attention is that US is helped and lifted by deceleration of both neighbors. That said US itself is in a mixed state.
Ready to Board the "Through Train?"
by Henry Zhang of Matthews Asia,
What is the significance of the soon-to-be rolled out ShanghaiHong Kong Connect, also known as the "through train?" This pilot program is designed to provide mutual access for equity investors between the Shanghai and Hong Kong exchanges. What will be the impact? While incremental, this could be an important step toward opening China's capital account and aiding in the liberalization of China's currency.
Developed Asia Pacific: Regional Economic Review - Q2 2014
by Team of Thomas White International,
During the first half of 2014, developed Asia Pacific economies faced challenges arising from lukewarm consumption and meek trade growth. Most countries in the region tried boosting their economies with a mix of infrastructure spending and loose monetary policies. Countries that had their trade skewed to China, Asias largest economy, faced prospects of slowing trade.
Transformation or Bust, Part 2
by John Mauldin of Mauldin Economics,
Envisioning a clear path through the issues from where we are today is not easy, though China certainly has more options than the world had with subprime by the middle of 2008, when there was so much toxic waste on the balance sheets of banks all over the world and there was no turning back. As we have emphasized in the past and will do today, China does have options. But each of the options has costs associated with it, and those costs are going up every day. Who pays and when is the simple question that most readers want to have answered, but therein lies the conundrum.
A Strengthening Case for European Bonds
The pace of the eurozones economic recovery has been so slow that many people are now asking whether quantitative easing (QE) is inevitable to support a recovery and prevent deflation. But David Zahn, portfolio manager for Franklin Global Government Bond Fund, thinks recent European Central Bank (ECB) interventions in the European financial markets already amount to QE. More importantly, he thinks the extensive set of measures that the ECB has announced not only may support Europes economic recovery, but bring a highly favorable backdrop for European fixed income investments gene
Important Reform Progress
by Andy Rothman of Matthews Asia,
Last week's announcement that the Communist Party will reform the hukou, or household registration system, is an important first step toward reducing the contradictions and conflicts in Chinese society. Migrant workers were primarily responsible for China's rapid economic growth, and today account for the majority of the manufacturing and construction workforce.
With US Volatility on the Upswing, Take a Look at Asia
by Russ Koesterich of BlackRock,
While the U.S. economy appears to be gaining steam, lofty stock prices and rising geopolitical risks are finally taking a toll. Russ discusses one area that still represents an opportunity: Asia, both developed and emerging.
Federal Reserve Tapering Part I: Emerging Market Currency Performance
by Bradley Krom of WisdomTree, Inc.,
While many investors tend to focus on changes of currency spot rates, a primary reason we have long advocated that investors allocate to EM currencies is the income potential driven by the higher interest rates in many emerging market countries. In todays yield-starved environment, EM currencies remain one of the most significant means of generating income in a portfolio while limiting interest rate risk.
Dynamic and Durable Growth Part 2: The Enormous Implications of Shale Energy
by Erik Voss of Invesco Blog,
This is the second in a four-part series examining dynamic and durable growth themes that affect the US economy and may present opportunities for investors. The first post explored the biotech revolution, and the third and fourth posts will discuss the massive changes in mobility.
5 Takeaways from the Vancouver Natural Resources Conference
Last week I was happy to speak at the Vancouver Natural Resources Conference in beautiful British Columbia. I also had the pleasure of listening to a variety of presentations by some of the most influential names in the investment world, and met a few new faces along the way. Here is what I took away from this years visit to Vancouver:
Kicking the Habit in Korea
by Michael Han of Matthews Asia,
Walk the streets of Seouls central business district, and you will still likely see smokers congregating in a few designated areasnarrow alleys between buildings, sending up smoke like chimneys. But even that is seen less and less these days as government officials crack down on public smoking. The next phase of Koreas anti-smoking crusade may involve further taxing its comparatively cheap tobacco products.
Russias Eurasian Vision
by Nouriel Roubini of Project Syndicate,
The escalating conflict in Ukraine between the Western-backed government and Russian-backed separatists has focused attention on the Kremlins long-term objectives. Though Russian President Vladimir Putins immediate goal may have been limited to retaining some influence in Ukrainian affairs, his longer-term ambition is much bolder.
The Sino-American Trust Deficit
by Stephen Roach of Project Syndicate,
The recently concluded Strategic and Economic Dialogue between the US and China was a major disappointment. Most significant, it failed to address an increasingly corrosive trust deficit that poses the most serious threat to Sino-American relations in 25 years.
The Chinese Wall of Worry: Uncertainty Rhymes with Opportunity
In his latest piece, Francois Sicart, Founder and Chairman of Tocqueville Asset Management, looks at the over-valued global market environment and points out that "While we wait for the day of reckoningwe should not be oblivious to potential opportunities, wherever they may exist. China may be a case in point." Digging deeper, Sicart looks at the negative media perception of China and believes "Many of the problems invoked in the headlines are real. But they are neither new nor, I believe on investigation, as catastrophic as implied."
Trains and Boats and Planes?
by Jeffrey Saut of Raymond James,
hose of you who know me know that I have had a love affair with boats ever since I was a kid. In my youth it was speedboats on various lakes in Michigan. In my teens, and into my forties, it was sailboats combined with an occasional trawler. In later life, however, it has been strictly powerboats.
Thomas White's 2014 Mid-Year Market Outlook
45-year industry veteran Tom White offers a review of current global economic trends and the outlook for the second half of 2014, with insights on the investment opportunities that may arise in the near future. Listen to why he sees "interest rates continuing to fall" and why "we are positive about what is going on" in the global economy.
Second Quarter Earnings: Marching Toward a Strong Recovery
It?s earnings season once again, and though only a quarter of the Russell 1000 has reported so far, the news is just north of positive. All signs indicate that the market has dusted itself off and is back to its cheerful self after a ho-hum first quarter, which was negatively affected by harsh winter weather.
Consumption and Services Deliver Healthy Growth
by Andy Rothman of Matthews Asia,
Three interesting economic trends, each relevant to investors, are clear from Chinas first half macro data. First, economic growth has stabilized at a healthy pace despite a weak property sector. Second, driven by strong income growth, China remains the worlds best consumption story. Third, rebalancing continues, with consumption accounting for a larger share of GDP growth than investment, and with the services sector bigger than manufacturing and construction.
Should EMC Corp Break Itself Apart?: FAST FUNdamental Analysis
by Team of F.A.S.T. Graphs,
On Monday a Wall Street Journal article reported that the hedge fund Elliott Management Corp has taken a more than $1 billion stake in EMC Corp (EMC) and revealed that it intends to petition the company to break itself apart. Elliott believes that this would unlock shareholder value. Implicit in that thesis would be the idea that EMC Corp is not receiving full value from the market. This article is offered as an in-depth analysis of the fundamental value of EMC Corp in relation to how the market is evaluating its business.
Anatomy of a Moat
by Kenneth Lowe of Matthews Asia,
At Matthews, we often talk about investing in quality companies with economic moats. We believe that these are the entities best placed to succeed over the long term in Asia. As Warren Buffett has noted, investors should seek businesses with economic castles protected by unbreachable moats. It is these moats that enable a company to survive and thrive as decades pass, creating economic value along the way by generating returns on capital ahead of their cost of capital. But what exactly is an economic moat?
Understanding Chinese Volatility
by Andy Rothman of Matthews Asia,
Sinology by Andy Rothman is a publication designed to provide investors with a framework for developing a deeper understanding of China and its economy. The focus will be on discussing the longer-term trends that are taking place in the country and their impact on the global economy. Rising volatility in China is a consequence of economic modernization and should not be feared by long-term investors.
Danger of Increased Risk Taking as Markets Boom
by Geoff Davey of FinaMetrica,
While some investors (and their advisors) believe risk tolerance changes with major events such as a stock market correction, typically it is an investors perception of risk that changes, which results in a change in their behavior. At the moment, many investors are buying stocks with elevated P/E ratios. Prices are going up a lot faster than corporate earnings and the risks are getting bigger. Yet people are still buying stocks.
Road Kill
Ten years ago I started working in Japan as a fixed income sales-trader for an international investment bank. I was frequently called upon to travel to other parts of Asia such as Beijing, Hong Kong, Seoul, Singapore and Sydney. My mandate was to invite clients to explore the many money making opportunities available to them by trading the (G4) U.S., German, U.K. or Japanese yield curve. The touchstone recommendation always seemed to be some combination of going long or short U.S Treasuries and establishing an offsetting position in like maturity German Bunds.
The Dollar Weapon
Over the past few years, various prosecutorial arms of U.S. government entities have brought charges against foreign banks that have violated U.S. sanctions that were placed on different countries. In this report, we will discuss the general nature of U.S. sanctions and how these banks violated American law. From there, we will reiterate the dollars reserve currency role from both a historic and theoretical perspective and show how this role makes the currency and the U.S. financial system pivotal in the global economy. We will conclude with market ramifications.
The High Tide in China
One axiom that has been used over the last couple decades is that high tide lifts all boats; meaning that a rise in economic or market conditions will lift every component of an economy or market to some degree. While true, we deal with relative measurements when discussing returns comparable to a benchmark. So, while the high tide does lift all boats, if the boat is tethered too tightly, you may be higher than being beached, but you also could still be underwater.
Booming Until It Hurts?
by Robert Shiller of Project Syndicate,
In recent months, concern has intensified among the worlds financial experts and news media that overheated asset markets real estate, equities, and long-term bonds could lead to a major correction and another economic crisis. The general public seems unbothered, but the experts' concern is healthy.
Indonesia: Hope for Change
by Siddharth Bhargava of Matthews Asia,
On Wednesday, Indonesia went to the polls to elect its seventh president. Unofficial results predict Joko Widodo, or Jokowi, to be the winner in a very tight race with rival Prabowo Subianto. Widely considered a man of the people, Jokowi came from humble beginnings as a furniture salesman. Although still lacking in experience on the national stage, his leadership is expected to be a stark contrast from Prabowos likely authoritarian style.
Choosing Winners in Asian Credit: Key Trends and Themes
Key trends include Asian credit supply, which is on track for another record year in 2014, and China's priority to promote cleaner and more efficient energy. Our bottom-up research and careful risk assessments informed by macroeconomic perspectives have us favoring select investments in several sectors of Asian credit markets, including state-owned enterprises in China and Korea, investment grade new issues and Basel III Tier 2 bank capital bonds. ?
Harnessing Solar in China
by Teresa Kong of Matthews Asia,
China has revised its solar energy targets several times in recent years. This year, it has set even more aggressive targets for solar deployment. But it still has a long way to go before large-scale adoption is possible. This week, Teresa Kong writes about her visit to a small town outside of Beijing to see a Greenpeace solar project that is encouraging households and enterprises to consider going green. What are the barriers to smooth implementation?
I'm Grateful to Live in America. Here's Why.
An important principle of our investment process at U.S. Global Investors is a belief that government policies are a precursor to change. As a result, we closely monitor the fiscal, monetary and other impactful governmental policies of the worlds largest countries, both in terms of economic stature and population. Were always listening for the proverbial shot heard around the world. As we approach Americas Independence Day, this belief rings especially true.
The 2014 Mid-Year Geopolitical Update
As is our custom, we take the middle of the year to reflect on the current geopolitical situation. This report is less a series of predictions as it is a list of potential geopolitical issues that we believe will dominate the international landscape for the rest of the year. It is not designed to be exhaustive; instead, it focuses on the big picture conditions that we believe will affect policy and markets going forward. They are listed in order of importance: Americas Strategic Drift, Chinese Maritime Expansion, The German Problem, and The Remaking of the Middle East.
Health Care Sector Spurred by Population Growth and M&As
Recently I spoke with John Derrick, director of research here at U.S. Global, to pick his brain about what he thought was the most interesting sector right now. You might expect him to have said energy, perhaps because of the intensifying violence in Kurdistan Iraq, a major oil producer. But instead, he said that he had his eyes on health care.
You Don’t Have to Love Soccer
by Brian Andrew of Cleary Gull,
The FIFA World Cup (for soccer aka football) is in full swing. There are 32 teams from around the world treating a world-wide audience of nearly 2 billion to a great show of sport. The teams are competing for $576 million in prize money. And while the U.S. will not likely make it to the final match, the tournament does offer some insight into diverse economies around the globe and why we should consider international investments as a pillar in any portfolio.
The Rise of E-Commerce in Asia
Its no surprise that Asiahome to two of the worlds most populous countriesholds great potential for e-commerce. Much of this growth has been driven by the fact that e-commerce, particularly in India and China, has helped serve as a bridge between what people want and what people can get offline. This is especially true for those who live outside major urban areas.
Results 3,551–3,600
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