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Global Opportunities: The Next Leap Forward for Defined Contribution Investment Menus
Under ERISA, fiduciaries are obligated to ensure plan menus provide diverse investment options to help minimize the risk of long-term losses in account values. Global, non-traditional equity and fixed income options are sorely lacking in Defined Contribution (DC) plan menus. These op-tions can offer both lower correlation to U.S. markets and potentially strong returns, which par-ticipants increasingly need given the uncertainty surrounding Social Security’s future benefit levels.
Why Were We So Surprised?
by Jeremy Grantham of GMO,
Chief investment strategist Jeremy Grantham examines the sources for the "unique decline" in the oil price since June, and offers an outlook for the coming years -Why Were We So Surprised? The Oil Glut, Saudi Decisions, and the Uniqueness of U.S. Fracking
The Long View: Is The Bull Market In Bonds Almost Over?
by Lance Roberts of Streettalk Live,
There has been much debate about the current low levels of interest rates in the economy today. The primary argument is that the "30-year bull market in bonds", due to consistently falling interest rates, must be near its end. Of course, this debate has devastated the "bond bears" who have consistently been frustrated by lower interest rates despite their annual predictions to the contrary. However, just because interest rates are currently low, does this necessarily mean that they must rise?
What's Up? Quantitative Easing and Inflation
The Fed has ceased its program of quantitative easing (QE) and may soon begin to raise interest rates. Japan has embarked on an even more aggressive program of QE. The European Central Bank (ECB) has just begun QE. In a related development, the Swiss National Bank (SNB) recently stopped pegging the Swiss franc to the euro. Many investors are asking, “What does all this monetary turmoil mean?”
The Absolute Return Letter - January 2015
by Team of Absolute Return Partners,
In large parts of the financial community there is a strongly held belief that the problems which caused the credit crisis back in 2008-09 have never been properly addressed, causing many to suspect that it is only a matter of time before the ‘end game’ is upon us – the credit crisis Mk. II so to speak. I will in the following pages look at various ways the end game might unfold but, before I do so, I shall return to one of the subjects I discussed in the January letter – the end of cheap oil – which caused a flurry of comments and questions.
The Bravado of Borrowers
by Peter Schiff of Euro Pacific Capital,
Last week a scene unfolded in Athens, largely unnoticed by American eyes, that provided all the visual and metaphorical symbols needed to define the current state of the global economy. Hollywood's best screenwriters couldn't have laid it out any better.
Retirement Realities and Contingencies
by Roger Nusbaum of AdvisorShares,
Stites on Estates took an interesting look at retirement intentions versus retirement reality along with a reiteration of the dismal statistics about how little savings people who are working have accumulated as well as how few dollars people have put away when beginning their retirement.
Deflation: Consternation Not Elation
Deflation has been around ever since there was an excess supply of something or when demand had plummeted. The term “deflation” has now become mainstream in the general public’s lexicon, though the understanding of the declining economic growth that corresponds with it is often disregarded until it wreaks havoc on the consumer’s paycheck. When we see deflation permeating global economics, market movements and NFL games, the general public will become acutely aware of the other major impact from deflation, the increasing symbiotic nature of all the global economies.
Ben Hunt: Investing Lessons from the Poker Table
by Justin Kermond,
Markets have not been this dominated by political uncertainty and divorced from economic fundamentals since the 1930s. Ben Hunt - Harvard Ph.D., the author of the Epsilon Theory Newsletter, and Chief Risk Officer at Salient Partners, an asset manager based in Houston, TX - provides useful lessons from game theory for thriving in what he calls "the age of central bankers."
What's Up? Quantitative Easing and Inflation
In a recent piece from Research Affiliates, Chris Brightman, chief investment officer, provides "Central Banking 101," noting that just within the last several months the Fed has ceased its program of quantitative easing (QE) and may soon begin to raise interest rates, Japan has embarked on an even more aggressive program of QE and the European Central Bank (ECB) has just begun QE. In a related development, the Swiss National Bank (SNB) recently stopped pegging the Swiss franc to the euro. Many investors are asking, ?What does all this monetary turmoil mean??
Municipal Market Update: What's Ahead in 2015
Municipal bonds ended 2014 as one of the best-performing asset classes - buoyed by investors’ search for yield in a low interest-rate environment. For 2015, we are positioned cautiously for greater volatility in the fixed income markets. We currently prefer revenue-backed bonds over most general obligation (GO) debt, as these sectors typically benefit from dedicated revenue streams and do not have the pension challenges that many state and local governments face.
What Happened to the Secular Bear Market in Equities?
History shows that US equity prices have consistently alternated between secular bull and bear trends. These price movements typically average 15-20 years in length and embrace several different business cycles. In April 2003 we published an article posing the question, ?Whither the Secular Trend of Equities?? which laid out the case for the year 2000 being a secular or very long-term peak for the US stock market. Since the three previous secular bears averaged just over 18-years, our working hypothesis was for a weak market until sometime around 2018.
Key Issues for 2015: The View from Western Asset
The U.S. represents a bright spot in a global recovery best characterized as "two steps forward, one step back." Sector and issue selection remain crucial in this environment, but so do macroeconomic strategies, which may help provide ballast when the pace of recovery slows.
Time to Get Off the Merry-Go-Round ??
by Jerome Schneider of PIMCO,
In 2014, many investors de-risked their portfolios by moving into shorter-duration passive approaches but the potential for capital preservation from these strategies may face challenges. Passive benchmarks and strategies with pre-specified, structural interest rate exposure may have little to no flexibility around their positioning and may push investors into the heart of the proverbial storm. Active strategies not constrained by benchmark limitations may be optimal for investors as they can seek to manage exposure to interest rates.
And the Winner Is...
The annual awards season for the entertainment industry has begun and will kick into high gear over the next two months. It has not been without some controversy already, as the acting and directing nominee lists for the 87th Academy Awards (to be presented on February 22nd) were criticized for a lack of diversity.
There?s More to the Gold Rally than European Market Fears
Even though gold was down last year, it still ranked as the second-best-performing currency, following the U.S. dollar. The metal has risen about 10 percent year-to-date, and on Tuesday, for the first time since mid-August, it broke through the $1,300 mark.
2015 Economic & Capital Market Outlook
The domestic economy is growing at 3.0% to 3.5% pace. The budget deficit is plummeting and currently is less than 2.8% of GDP. The price of oil is in a freefall now below $55 per barrel and inflation is virtually nonexistent. The rate of unemployment is below 6.0%. These are idyllic conditions for any economy, especially five years after the largest financial crisis since the Great Depression. So, what?s the problem?
3 Things - Employment, Interest Rates & Retail Sales
by Lance Roberts of Streettalk Live,
There has been much discussion as of late about the "longest string of employment gains since the 90's." There is certainly no argument that employment has improved since the financial crisis, however, with the economy six years into a recovery we should certainly expect as much.
The Swiss National Bank?s Unpleasant Experience of Sleeping Next to an Elephant
On 15 January 2015, the Governing Board of the Swiss National Bank (SNB) unexpectedly exited its minimum exchange rate regime, which it had adopted back in September 2011 when it was fighting sharp appreciation of the Swiss franc in the midst of the eurozone sovereign debt crisis.
A Five-Year Global Financial Forecast: Tsunami Warning
by John Mauldin of Mauldin Economics,
It is the time of the year for forecasts; but rather than do an annual forecast, which is as much a guessing game as anything else (and I am bad at guessing games), I?m going to do a five-year forecast to take us to the end of the decade, which I think may be useful for longer-term investors.
Economic Optimism Abounds As Crude Oil Plunges
Each year at this time, we see a plethora of fresh forecasts for the New Year, and this year is certainly no exception, especially with the recent implosion in oil prices. There is widespread agreement that sharply lower energy prices will provide a boost to the global economy this year, especially for oil-importing nations including the US.
A ?Living in the Moment? Guide to Investing
New Year?s Eve is all about partying for a large percentage of the world?s population, but it has a different meaning to me. Don?t get me wrong. I?ve gone to my share of NYE parties, including doing the Times Square thing in 2000 (highly recommended!). But over the years I?ve shifted away from celebrating that way.
Evaluating the Arguments for the Dollar's Demise
by Seaborn Hall,
From the great financial crisis and the massive escalation of sovereign debt and QE to the threat of currency wars to cries from pundits to exit the dollar and buy gold, it requires a discerning advisor to sift through the din and decide whether the dollar's reserve status is slipping. Could the dollar look strong and still be in danger? Several recent books, and papers from the BIS, IMF and Fed delineate the noise from the reality.
Energy: Technology Disruption, but not to all
Disruptive Technologies are the gold vein every entrepreneur seeks, but rarely find. Clayton M. Christensen, the patriarch of observing disruptive technologies, noted in his seminal book The Innovators Dilemma in 1997 that each breakthrough can be categorized as either disruptive or sustaining.
Why the World Needs the US Economy to Struggle
by John Mauldin of Mauldin Economics,
In this weeks letter, my associate Worth Wray explores what a rising dollar means for emerging markets and what central banks are likely to do in response. Can they smooth the ride, or will it be the worlds scariest roller coaster? This letter will print long because of the number of fabulous charts Worth provides. I might make a brief comment or two at the end. Heres Worth.
Gold Beat All Other World Currencies in 2014
Loyal readers of our Investor Alert and my blog Frank Talk are no doubt aware that the U.S. dollars rising strength has put pressure on commodities such as oil and gold. I wrote about this as recently as my roundup of the top commodities stories of 2014, which you can read here.
2015 Global Market Outlook: Exploring the Growth Landscape
For much of 2014, the financial press was filled with dire headlines warning of global stagnation and deflation. These demoralizing reports seemed to paralyze policy makers. The facts behind the headlines, however, suggested the reality was not nearly as gloomy or pessimistic as it seemed. This paper outlines a more optimistic outlook for 2015 where the world economy is expected to remain resilient and where the outlook for sustainable corporate returns remains strong.
Sungarden's 2015 Investor Preview
2014 is nearly behind us. And since we tend to not want to do things the way the Wall Street herd does, our 2015 outlook is formatted this way: we list a group of potential scenarios, and then assign our best guess probability that they will happen next year. This is about considering the possibilities, not making outright predictions.
Global Economic Perspective: December
by Christopher Molumphy, Michael Materasso, Roger Bayston, Michael Hasenstab & John Beck of Franklin Templeton Investments,
With 321,000 jobs added, the initial US nonfarm payroll report for November was much stronger than markets expected and brought job growth this year close to levels last seen in the late 1990s. Added to upward revisions in September and October jobs data, the nonfarm payrolls data reinforces the view that whatever is occurring in the rest of the world, the US economy appears to remain firmly on track to record reasonably strong growth in the months ahead. And while fourth-quarter gross domestic product (GDP) growth this quarter for the United States is expected to be lower than the third-quart
Municipal Market Perspectives
"Constructive but cautious is our 2015 mantra. Price appreciation has been a major contributor to portfolio performance as evidenced by the yield curve shift from the beginning of the year. 2015 market performance should largely be determined by income, with less support from declining yields.
Weighing the Week Ahead: Time for the 2015 Pundit Forecasts!
With little fresh news during the holidays and many pros on vacation, I expect a time of reflection and prediction. Publications hungry for content and TV producers needing to fill slots will highlight forecasts of any and all flavors. This happens every year, but the mid-week holidays are pushing it a little earlier than usual,
The US Dollar and the Cone of Uncertainty
by John Mauldin of Mauldin Economics,
For the past two letters weve been looking at the global scene and trying to figure out which issues will help us outline scenarios for 2015. We finish the series today by looking at the impact of the dollar bull market on the probabilities for various 2015 developments.
Does Victory For Abe Mean Defeat For The Yen?
by Dennis Rhee of AdvisorShares,
Prime Minister Shinzo Abe prevailed on Sundays snap election which will give Abe a fresh mandate to implement his policies to revive Japan from its prolonged well chronicled economic malaise. There was no way Abenomics wasnt going to continue since Abes LDP party had 352 candidates to the opposition Democratic Party of Japan fielding only 198 candidates for the 475 seats up for grabs.
Financial Planning for an Uncertain Energy Future
by Richard E. Vodra,
Advisors hearing optimistic forecasts of plentiful new supplies of oil that may last for decades may be encouraged to make aggressive projections for their clients. It is critical to understand the role oil plays in the economy and the factors that will affect future supplies. Advisors should "drill down" beneath the slogans to see both risks and opportunities upon which to base their recommendations.
Black Gold Loses Glitter
by Peter Schiff of Euro Pacific Capital,
The stunning 40% drop in the price of oil over the past few months has scrambled global economic forecasts, changed the geo-political landscape, and has severely pressured many energy sector investments. Economists are scratching their heads to determine if the drop is good or bad for the economy or whether cheap oil will add to or decrease unemployment, or complicate the global effort to "defeat" deflation.
Weighing the Week Ahead: Will Crashing Oil Prices Change the Feds Course?
The investment conclusion is opportunity in non-energy cyclical stocks, including basic materials, technology, and consumer discretionary. There are also energy names that are part of the knee-jerk reaction, but which do not necessarily suffer from lower oil prices. These include refiners and some of the large integrated oil companies that need to replace reserves. (Barrons also suggests oil tanker stocks storage needed!)
Examining the Correlation between Oil and Gold
by Dennis Rhee of AdvisorShares,
Crude Oil and Gold have generally exhibited a positive correlation (meaning they move in tandem) for the past 7 out of 10 years. In general both fall in the commodity asset class and are commonly used by investors as an inflation hedge as well as for portfolio diversification. As inflation increases, both commodities will tend to follow suit.
Favorable Policy Environment for Stocks in 2015
by Burt White of LPL Financial,
We expect the policy environment in 2015 to be supportive for stocks. The transfer of power to Republicans may have a meaningful impact on broad policy measures. Regardless of the political party in power, the year before the presidential election has historically been a good one for stocks.
Whos Really in The Kingdoms Gun Sights?
by Doug Holt of AdvisorShares,
According to the EIA, U.S. crude oil imports averaged about 7.3 million barrels per day last week with Canadian barrels making up 3.2 million barrels of the total. U.S. commercial reserves increased by 1.9 million barrels week over week where total inventories fell 3.7 million barrels versus expectations of a build of 950,000.3 Are we at the beginnings of a rebalancing of the market? Possibly.
Results 3,501–3,550
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