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Here Are Two Ways Investors Can Take Advantage of the Fed's Uncertainty
by Frank Holmes of U.S. Global Investors, 9/19/15
Although interest rates could still be hiked in one of the two remaining times the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meets this year, I’m inclined to think they’ll stay near zero until at least 2016. The decision is a welcome one for both gold demand and new home purchases. When rates rise, gold becomes less attractive for some investors, who are encouraged to exchange their no-yielding gold for income-producing assets.

Merkel Opens the Gates
by John Mauldin of Mauldin Economics, 9/19/15
This is all well and good for nations like Germany that need immigrants, but much of Europe is really not in need of new workers, given their present severe unemployment problems. Not to mention that in those countries budgets are already strained and taking on the task of housing tens of thousands of immigrants and refugees is not cheap.

Does a Higher Retirement Bogey Call for a Different Club?
by Jeff Middleswart of Ranger International, 9/17/15
Recent research suggests the rule of thumb 4% distribution rate is far too high. If true, savers may want to consider adding dividend paying stocks to their portfolios.

The Fed's Dilemma
by Scott Minerd of Guggenheim Investments, 9/16/15
The U.S. Federal Reserve’s rate rise history reveals a familiar dilemma—previous delays led to inflated asset prices and recessions.

New Study: We're Nowhere Near Peak Coal Use in China and India
by Frank Holmes of U.S. Global Investors, 9/16/15
Resource investors, take note: By 2025, just 10 years from now, energy consumption in Asia will increase a whopping 31 percent. A whole two-thirds of that demand, driven largely by China and India, will be for fossil fuels, most notably coal.

Weighing the Week Ahead: To Hike, or not to Hike?
by Jeff Miller of NewArc Investments, Inc., 9/15/15
After many years of standing pat on interest rates, there is finally a genuine chance of a shift in Fed policy. The punditry will be asking: To hike, or not to hike?

When Efforts to Persuade Backfire
by Dan Solin, 9/15/15
How do you deal with arguments contrary to your position? Do you ignore them? Do you dismiss them as spurious and not worthy of discussion? Do you address them and deal with them in a serious and analytical manner?

Gundlach on Donald Trump, China and Fed Policy
by Robert Huebscher, 9/15/15
Despite grabbing most of the headlines and leading in many of the polls, Donald Trump is not expected to win the Republican nomination. But Jeffrey Gundlach said that Trump has done the electorate a “big favor by bringing up issues that have been conveniently buried for quite some time.”

Schwab Market Perspective: Now What?
by Liz Ann Sonders, Brad Sorensen, Jeffrey Kleintop of Charles Schwab, 9/14/15
“Everyone has a plan until they get punched in the mouth.”—Mike Tyson. We don’t often quote Mike Tyson, but his words resonate lately. Investors are wondering what to do—buy the dips, sell the rallies, or sit tight? First, investment decisions should never be made on emotion, which tends to dominate at times like this. It can be difficult to stomach moves such as we’ve seen recently. But investors who have an investing plan in place should indeed just sit there, let things calm down, and continue with the plan already put in place.

Life Is Uncertain and So Are Interest Rates
by Frank Holmes of U.S. Global Investors, 9/12/15
Right now, a lot of investors are wondering about the uncertainty of rising interest rates—the causes, effects and possible ramifications. Many people have been saying for weeks and months now that a rate hike is imminent and that September is the anticipated takeoff. I’ve been skeptical of this, and now a chart from highly-respected market analyst Jeff deGraaf confirms my skepticism.

Needed at the Fed: An Inverse Volcker
by John Mauldin of Mauldin Economics, 9/12/15
I believe the Federal Open Market Committee should hike rates ASAP. A number of very astute analysts and Fed observers agree with me. On the other hand, an equal-sized army of similarly smart analysts think they should not. It seems to me this recovery is getting long in the tooth. The Fed needs to give itself some room to stimulate when the economy turns down again. As it stands now, their only weapons are to take interest rates negative or to resume quantitative easing. We don’t want either of those.

Protecting Against Inflation In a Deflationary World
by Steven Malin Ph.D. of Allianz Global Investors, 9/11/15
Powerful global deflationary forces will continue to put downward pressure on the prices of inputs and outputs for months, if not years, to come. Even if the US Federal Reserve and the Bank of England raise policy interest rates over the months ahead, inflation risk premiums built into market interest rates will remain small. In the absence of strong wage increases, unprecedented global growth in the supply of resources and outputs relative to demand will linger—and inflation will remain constrained.

U.S. Labor: The Fear of Wages
by Milton Ezrati of Lord Abbett, 9/10/15
Not only are U.S. employment costs accelerating but also worker output per hour is decelerating. Could this spur inflation concerns at the U.S. Federal Reserve?

Weighing the Week Ahead: Time to Revise Year-End Market Estimates?
by Jeff Miller of NewArc Investments, Inc., 9/9/15
Sometimes the calendar dictates the agenda. The Labor Day weekend marks the official end of a summer that was eventful for markets. The punditry will be asking: What is your (revised) EOY target for stocks?

Making Sense of Market Volatility
by Sponsored Content from Invesco, 9/8/15
• On Aug. 21, the Dow Jones Industrial Average entered a correction and reminded investors what volatility looks like. • Several Invesco senior investment leaders discuss their views of market volatility. • They share how it affects, or doesn’t affect, the opportunities they see.

Navigating Divergent Global ILB Markets: Why Are UK Index-Linked Gilts Persistently Overvalued?
by Mihir Worah, Mike Amey, Berdibek Ahmedov of PIMCO, 9/8/15
Current extremely low and negative real yields on UK index-linked gilts, particularly for long-dated bonds, do not appear to have any fundamental justifications.

Muddling Through Shanghai
by John Mauldin of Mauldin Economics, 9/6/15
China is in transition, a transition that was clearly telegraphed if you have been paying attention. Our recent book on China (A Great Leap Forward?) clearly laid out this new path. Today we are going to talk about this precarious, difficult transition, which may impose profound impacts on much of the rest of the world. This transition is going to change the way global trade has worked in the past. There will be winners and losers.

The Many Uses of Gold
by Frank Holmes of U.S. Global Investors, 9/3/15
Gold’s many qualities make it one of the most coveted metals in the world. Not only can it be beautifully shaped and sculpted, the yellow metal also conducts electricity, doesn’t tarnish and is biocompatible (meaning it’s not harmful to our tissue). These qualities make it the metal of choice in a wide variety of industries, including dentistry and medicine, electrical engineering, construction and aerospace manufacturing.

August 2015 Commentary
by Joe Becker of Milliman FRM, 9/2/15
As August wound down and families enjoyed the last few lazy days of summer, financial markets clearly had another idea in mind. After trading in a relatively tight range for most of the summer, the last two weeks of August were marked by volatility, the likes of which haven’t been seen since 2011. We attribute this heightened volatility to the confluence of global macro conditions with technical factors.

The Earbud Stock Market
by William Smead of Smead Capital Management, 9/2/15
The earbud is nothing new, but it seems to be everywhere. The first implication of wearing earbuds is the solitary nature it creates. People signal through earbuds that they want to be left alone. Second, earbuds represent a willingness to disengage from the moment—a willful non-participation in society. This seems true in a world that is tied at the hip to technology and dominated by the largest population group between 20 and 36 years of age. This seems even truer for the markets, which greatly matters to long-duration stock owners like us.

Making Sense of Market Volatility
by Karen Dunn Kelley of Invesco Blog, 8/31/15
On Aug. 21, the Dow Jones Industrial Average entered a correction, falling 10% from its most recent peak, and reminded investors what volatility looks like after almost four correction-free years. While volatility exposes weaknesses in the market, in my opinion it also reveals the strength of high conviction managers who are skillfully navigating the market. Active management and smart beta strategies seek to surpass the “market averages” offered by traditional benchmarks, providing the potential not only for higher returns, but also for a smoother ride.

Stay Calm and Carry On
by Kenneth Kim of EQIS Capital, 8/31/15
As most everyone is aware, the markets have been highly volatile, and mostly down, during these past few days. Everyone seems to be pointing fingers at China’s slowing economy as the cause. Before joining EQIS, I was a professor of finance at Renmin University in Beijing, China for many years. Recognized as one of the top 15 economists* in China, and a frequent economic commentator on the Chinese economy on China’s only English-language national television station, I can speak about, and address, this current market condition that places blame on China.

Weapons of Economic Misdirection
by John Mauldin of Mauldin Economics, 8/28/15
This week’s letter will deal with the problems of determining what GDP really is, and I’ll throw in a few quick remarks on what the recent GDP revision means for the Fed and whether they’ll raise rates.

Trying to Restore Order
by Carl Tannenbaum of Northern Trust, 8/27/15
It has been an unsettling month for the financial markets. The challenges faced by China, which have been amplified by inconsistent responses from policy makers, have heightened uncertainty.

Markets Crashing, Gold Rising
by Clint Siegner of Money Metals Exchange, 8/26/15
U.S. Investors are on edge following last week’s and today’s sell-off in stocks around the globe. The carnage impacted equity markets in Asia, Europe, and the U.S. Interestingly, the U.S. dollar also weakened. And bonds and gold are getting most of the safe-haven buying.

US Equity and Economic Review For August 17-22
by Hale Stewart, 8/24/15
For the last several months, I have expressed three concerns regarding the markets. The high current and forward PEs of the major averages were the first. This was followed by the declining top line revenue of the S&P 500 companies. And third were deteriorating market technicals; a weakening advance/decline line, fewer stocks participating in rallies and various averages (the transports, IWCs and IWMs) declining. All of those factors came home to roost this week as the markets sold-off in a fairly sharp manner.

Risk Turns Risky: Unpleasant Skew, Scale Dilation, and Broken Lines
by John Hussman of Hussman Funds, 8/24/15
Over the years, I’ve observed that overvalued, overbought, overbullish market conditions have historically been accompanied by what I call “unpleasant skew” – a succession of small but persistent marginal new highs, followed by a vertical collapse in which weeks or months of gains are wiped out in a handful of sessions.

Gold Glimmers as Global Market Fear Grips Investors
by Frank Holmes of U.S. Global Investors, 8/21/15
Gold this week broke above its 50-day moving average as a fresh round of negative news from around the globe rekindled investors’ interest in the yellow metal as a safe haven. The Fear Trade, it seems, is in full force.

Was the Euro a Good Idea?
by Carl Tannenbaum of Northern Trust, 8/21/15
The creation of the euro was done for political reasons; as long as it is politically less costly for its members than the alternatives, the euro is here to stay.

China’s Currency Moves
by Mark Mobius of Franklin Templeton Investments, 8/18/15
The recent action in China’s stock market and its currency has caused a heightened attention to Chinese government policy decisions. All this attention certainly demonstrates how important China has become within the global economy at large.

Chinese Yuan Depreciates Further: What is the Endgame?
by Rob Waldner of Invesco Blog, 8/17/15
After China’s surprise devaluation of the yuan by 1.9% last Tuesday, the Chinese currency was devalued by another 1.6% on Wednesday. Policymakers appear to be following a pattern of setting the daily fix, which sets the center point for trading during that day, with reference to the market price at the close of the previous day. Invesco Fixed Income believes that further devaluations are likely as the People’s Bank of China (PBoC), the country’s central bank, acquiesces to market pressure and price movements over time.

The Shot Not Heard Around the World
by Peter Schiff of Euro Pacific Capital, 8/14/15
China’s recent move to devalue the yuan has sent shock waves through the global financial markets and has convinced most observers that a new front in the global currency wars has begun. The move has caused...

Riding the Energy Wave to the Future
by John Mauldin of Mauldin Economics, 8/14/15
Today I’ll tell you about some big shifts in the energy industry. These shifts are about as positive as can be, unless you need high oil prices to run your country. In the long run, these changes are bullish for the whole world, which I think this will surprise many of you. And though we’ve been used to thinking about energy and technology as two different facets of modern life, today they are inextricably linked.

China Not Immune to Contagious Quantitative Easing and Massive Printing of Cheap Money
by Frank Holmes of U.S. Global Investors, 8/14/15
First it was the U.S. Federal Reserve. Then, in 2013, Japan launched what became known as Abenomics. The European Central Bank (ECB) followed suit in 2014. And now the People’s Bank of China has joined the parade. All of them in some way stimulated economic growth by initiating monetary quantitative easing (QE) programs.

Global Economic Slowdown - Implications For US Stocks
by Gary Halbert of Halbert Wealth Management, 8/12/15
The global economy is rolling over to the downside for the most part. The question is, will this global slowdown take the US economy down with it? While no one knows for sure, that possibility simply cannot be ruled out. If the softening in the global economy leads to a slowdown in the US, that will almost certainly result in a weakening of our stock markets.

The Message that Wins Clients
by Dan Richards, 8/11/15
As an advisor, you want to deliver a message that sets you apart and makes prospects walk away wanting to work with you. But many advisors go wrong by focusing on their backgrounds, credentials, firms, processes and teams.

On My Radar: Margin Debt, Valuations and Vacation
by Steve Blumenthal of CMG Capital Management Group, 8/10/15
Twenty years from now you will be more disappointed by the things that you didn’t do than by the ones you did do, so throw off the bowlines, sail away from safe harbor, catch the trade winds in your sails. Explore, Dream, Discover.” – Mark Twain

China’s Secret Gold Hoarding Strategy
by Stefan Gleason of Money Metals Exchange, 8/7/15
China’s recent stock market gyrations have some analysts now calling China the biggest bubble in history. But those who write off China because of market volatility are missing a more important long-term trend of Chinese geopolitical and monetary ascendancy. That trend shows no signs of abating.

Closing the Sausage Factory
by John Mauldin of Mauldin Economics, 8/7/15
Anything you do attracts bureaucratic oversight now. We may laugh at “helicopter parents” hovering over their children at school, but we all have a helicopter government looking over our shoulders at work.

The Three Gluts
by Joachim Fels of PIMCO, 8/6/15
While the global savings glut is likely the main secular force behind the global environment of low growth, lowflation and low interest rates, both the oil glut and the money glut should help lift demand growth, inflation and thus interest rates from their current depressed levels over the cyclical horizon.

America in the Way
by Joseph Stiglitz of Project Syndicate, 8/6/15
Today, developing countries and emerging markets say to the US and others: If you will not keep your promises on development aid, at least get out of the way and let us create an international economic architecture that works for the poor. Not surprisingly, the US is doing whatever it can to thwart such efforts.

Market Review
by Rick Vollaro of Pinnacle Advisory Group, 8/5/15
The summer heat has finally arrived, and it’s naturally coincided with lower volume markets that are prone to the rumor mill and news flow. The second quarter of 2015 was choppy, but included some reversals in behavior across asset classes. Domestic equity markets bounced around in a flat range, while broad emerging equity markets declined slightly on the quarter.

Investment Silver Demand Draining COMEX Vaults
by Clint Siegner of Money Metals Exchange, 8/5/15
If there are words to characterize the precious metals markets for July, it would be “divergences” and “shortages.” There was heavy selling in the leveraged futures market and extraordinary buying demand and shortages in physical coins, rounds, and bars.

Bridging the Gap in Global Infrastructure Funding, Part 1
by Darin Turner of Invesco Blog, 8/3/15
Infrastructure is the backbone of every economy, providing essential public services such as water supply, energy and mobility. And for investors, infrastructure also has the potential to provide unique benefits.

A Bad Equilibrium & How Speculative Distortion Ends
by John Hussman of Hussman Funds, 8/3/15
In economics, we often describe “equilibrium” as a condition where demand is equal to supply. Textbooks usually depict this as a single point where a demand curve and a supply curve intersect, and all is right with the world.

Europe: Back to Business
by Philippe Brugere-Trelat of Franklin Templeton Investments, 8/2/15
The main very positive consequence of the Greek rescue agreement—even if nobody in Greece or in the eurozone at large seems to like it—is that Greece appears to be staying in the eurozone and the construct has been safeguarded.

A Midyear Look at Global Real Estate
by Ivy Global Real Estate Team of Ivy Investment Management Company, 7/30/15
There are many drivers of recent short-term price changes for publicly traded real estate companies in the current market environment. These include changes in the market’s outlook for economic growth, for interest rate movements, for central bank actions and even the issues surrounding Greece and Ukraine.

Greece and China: The New Not Ready For Primetime Players
by Chris Richey of Neosho Capital, 7/30/15
A paper on the present Greek and Chinese capital market crises, which have their roots in policies carefully crafted over the past two decades meant to bring about the integration of their respective economies into that of the wider world.

U.S. Dollar Still Stands Tall
by Burt White of LPL Financial, 7/30/15
The U.S. dollar remains strong, defying some skeptics. As has been the case since late 2008 when the Federal Reserve (Fed) began its quantitative easing (QE) program, there has been a great deal of concern recently among some market participants that the dollar is on the verge of a significant decline. Although the dollar may have lost some market share relative to other global currencies in recent decades, it remains the dominant global currency (often referred to as a reserve currency) and we expect it to remain so for the foreseeable future.

Rising Rates: Threat or Opportunity
by Eric Stein, Andrew Szczurowski of Eaton Vance, 7/30/15
Investors should take an active approach to duration management and favor assets that have historically benefited from a rising rate environment.
Results 3,351–3,400 of 4,353 found.