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If You’re Not Following this Energy Trend, You’re Being Left in the Dust
This week our office was visited by my friend, investor and author Gianni Kovacevic, who is at the halfway point of a cross-country book tour to promote the latest edition of “My Electrician Drives a Porsche?” As part of the tour, he’s driving a Tesla Model S from Boston to Palo Alto, California—Tesla’s hometown—to demonstrate the potential of green energy and spread his message that “the future is now.”
The Soft and Frustrating Middle
Patience and discipline. Those are the two words to commit to memory in the face of the current environment. A sluggish expansion and a cautious corporate environment leads us to have a neutral view on equities, which means investors should stick with their longer-term objectives and remain committed to their plan. There are glimmers of hope domestically and globally with strong U.S. job growth and U.S. and global manufacturing looking better.
The Times Are a--Changin'
Dovish comments and actions by central banks, including the Federal Reserve, helped sustain the market’s rally.
Fundamentals still indicated tepid growth even as global risk appetite built further through the course of the month.
March highlighted that shifts in political trends could feature prominently in the remainder of the year.
Emerging Nations Continue To See Huge Capital Outflows
If you are wondering why the global economy struggled last year and so far this year, one only has to look at the trend in capital flows of emerging nations. After decades of positive capital inflows to most emerging economies, that trend has reversed sharply in the last few years.
Intergenerational Forgetfulness
Recent candidates have made foreign policy statements that signal significant change, displaying ignorance about why current policies are in place and what could occur if they are radically changed. We believe these calls are the result of “intergenerational forgetfulness.” When policymakers implement an initial policy, they tell their successors why such policies were deployed. Eventually, younger policymakers reverse course, only to discover later why the original policy was made. We examine the increasing disenchantment with current policy as an example of intergenerational forgetfulness.
Mile-High Merger: Alaska Airlines Buys Virgin America, Expanding Market Reach
The $2.6 billion deal, awaiting shareholder approval in June, would create the fifth-largest U.S. airline by traffic and result in a much more competitive player, especially on the West Coast. (Alaska is based in Seattle, Virgin in San Francisco.) According to the Wall Street Journal, Alaska’s annual revenue could grow 27 percent because of the deal.
Preparing for Rising Medical Costs in Retirement - 2016
The Affordable Care Act (commonly known as the “ACA” or “Obamacare”) has had a significant effect on retiree health care costs and retirement planning, and those effects are likely only to increase in the years ahead. People nearing or in retirement need to understand the extent to which their medical expenses are likely to increase, and steps they can take now to help ensure they will be able to afford medical care after they retire.
A Glimpse into North Korea
by Colin Dishington, of Matthews Asia,
During a recent visit to Asia, I took the opportunity to join a tour to the notorious demilitarized zone that separates North and South Korea. The “DMZ” as it is more commonly referred to, is 4 kilometers wide and has served as a buffer zone between the two states since the Korean War Armistice Agreement of 1953.
10 Mid-Size Stocks for Large-Size Gains: Part 1
by Chuck Carnevale of F.A.S.T. Graphs,
Small and mid-sized companies are often overlooked by many or even most investors. That’s unfortunate, because there are many excellent investment opportunities that can be found in these equity classes. However, an argument could be made that between the small and mid-cap equity classes, the best and perhaps less risky investment opportunities are found in mid-caps.
A Value Fund with a Long-Term Success Record
by Robert Huebscher,
Tim Hartch has been a co-manager of the BBH Global Core Select fund (BBGRX) since inception and has also co-managed the BBH Core Select fund (BBTEX) since October 2005. I spoke with Tim about his management philosophy and how he has been able to outperform his benchmark over a long time period.
Inside Information - March 2016
by Bob Veres,
This is a complimentary issue of Bob Veres' Inside Information. The lead article defines the robo-advisor challenge as nothing more than the next evolution of professional software—I call it Software 2.0—with intelligent built-in capabilities. The article looks at how the venture capitalists who funded the robo-platforms identified three significant weaknesses in the advisor profession they hoped to disrupt. As it turns out, instead of disrupting us, they did us all a big favor. By exposing certain weaknesses, the venture capitalists showed us several ways to increase your top-line revenues without any additional labor from you or your staff.
Gold Had Its Best Quarter in a Generation. So Where Are the Investors?
he last time gold had a quarter this strong, Ronald Reagan was a year into his second term as president, the Soviet Union was taking its final gasp and the U.S. was still reeling from the Challenger explosion. Year-to-date, the yellow metal has risen 16.5 percent, its best three-month performance since 1986, mostly on fears of negative interest rates and other global central bank policies.
First Quarter Odds and Ends
by Carl Tannenbaum of Northern Trust,
Four months after terrorist attacks struck the streets of Paris, Europe was hit again, at its heart – Brussels. The sophistication of the attacks amid tightened security has once again raised questions around intelligence-sharing across Europe’s borders, and added fuel to the migration debate.
Taiwan's New Status Quo
by Tiffany Hsiao of Matthews Asia,
During the first decade of her political career, Taiwan’s President-elect Tsai Ing-wen essentially maintained bipartisanship between the pro-unification Kuomintang (KMT) party and its rival Democratic Progressive Party (DPP). But now her election win to Taiwan’s top post sends a strong message to Beijing that cross-strait affairs may not be as smooth as they have been under KMT rule.
Dynamite Comes in Small Packages: 10 Small Caps for Explosive Returns
by Chuck Carnevale of F.A.S.T. Graphs,
Investing in small-cap stocks is not for everyone. My definition of small-cap is a company whose market is $5 billion or less. However, for those brave souls that are willing to assume a little more risk, they can, under the right conditions, be a very profitable choice. Nevertheless, and in the general sense, small caps offer both advantages and disadvantages that I believe should be clearly understood before utilizing this asset class.
Open Letter to the Next President, Part 3
by John Mauldin of Mauldin Economics,
Today we continue my series of open letters to the presidential candidates. In the meantime, we’ve drawn a little closer to knowing whom the two major parties will nominate. A few people are vowing to consider minor parties, too.
25 Years of Investing in Asia
Matthews Asia has reached a milestone in its history—25 years of investing in Asia. What have been the biggest challenges? What lessons have been learned? This month’s Asia Insight features Robert Horrocks, PhD, and Sharat Shroff, CFA, who share their thoughts on the investing disciplines they have formed in the two decades since Asia has evolved from “interesting but obscure” to a frontline asset class.
Here’s the Cost of Global Terrorism
We were saddened this week to hear that at least 30 people were killed and many dozens more injured in ISIS-related suicide bombings that targeted an airport and train station in Brussels. The Belgian and European Union capital joins Paris, San Bernardino, Ankara, Jakarta and too many other cities in the past year alone that have come under fire from the Islamic terrorist group.
Stocks Have Swung From Short-Term Oversold In January To Overbought Today
by Eric Bush of GaveKal Capital,
Stocks have swung from being very oversold in January to overbought today. 82% of developed market stocks are trading above its 50-day moving average. Back on January 20th, only 6% of stocks were trading above its 50-day moving average. DM stocks are as overbought today as they have been at any point in over two years (since October 2013).
Some Surprising Advantages to Owning Gold and Silver Coins
by Everett Millman of Gainsville Coins,
Precious metals are traditionally seen as a hedge against inflation. Many investors include bullion in their portfolio as a way to prepare for tough economic times. Beyond these tried-and-true strategies, this expert perspective explores the potential advantages offered by legal tender gold and silver coins in terms of investing and avoiding transfer fees when banking abroad. These considerations are especially pertinent amid the global economic slowdown, political turmoil, and softening foreign bank stocks due to negative interest-rate policies (NIRP).
Has Brazil Bottomed?
Last year when I visited Brazil I was cautiously optimistic, and returning again this year, I remain so. We were expecting problems, but we were encouraged to see some signs of change taking place and are hopeful that as host of the 2016 Summer Olympic Games this year, Brazil will have the opportunity to shine. People find it difficult to believe the situation will turn around in a downtrodden market like Brazil, but we have found that, in general, the time of maximum pessimism marks the time when a bottom is near, and that’s the time we want to be investing.
Rising Global Taxes and Regulations (Indirect Taxation) Are Chipping Away at the Benefits of Low Int
Compliance and regulation measures have intensified from the financial sector to the food industry, from the U.S. all the way to Brazil. Many CEOs of banks, as well as brokers that I have spoken with recently, have lamented on the financial burden of excessive regulation and the indirect taxation that comes along with this rise in rules on steroids. Regulations are fueled with good intentions; however, the unexpected consequences like slow global growth need to be adjusted.
Is Valeant the Pharmaceuticals’ Proverbial Canary?
by Jennifer Thomson of GaveKal Capital,
Yesterday’s headline-making news that Canadian pharmaceutical company Valeant is in a bit of a precarious situation produced a 50% drop in the stock and some serious relative underperformance in our point-and-figure charting.
Fear…Not?
The fears that had cast a pall over January weighed on the markets in early February as well, but sentiment improved sharply as the month progressed. Encouraging U.S. economic data contributed to an improvement in global risk appetite.
Investors marveled at yet another V-shaped trajectory in the markets in February, but concerns still lingered.
China's Trilemma—and a Possible Solution
by Ben Bernanke of Brookings Institute,
China’s central banker, Zhou Xiaochuan of the People’s Bank of China (PBOC), and other top Chinese officials recently launched a communications offensive to persuade markets and foreign policymakers that no significant devaluation of the Chinese currency is planned.[1] Is the no-devaluation strategy a good one for China? If it is, what does China need to do to make its exchange-rate commitments credible?
Investment Opportunities Are Slowly Emerging in Asia Pacific Markets
by Brent Bates of Invesco Blog,
Virtually all Asia Pacific countries and sectors are experiencing negative earnings revisions, with return on capital falling to decade lows, a weak export environment and lackluster domestic economies. In this environment, investors have sought the highest-growth and highest-quality companies irrespective of valuation. Because the Invesco International and Global Growth team is not willing to buy at any price, we have been priced out of many of businesses we believe are attractive. But we see signs that this is starting to turn in certain areas.
Look Beyond the Headlines: China's Services Sectors Continue to Grow
China’s economic health is one of the key questions facing investors. The country’s economic growth rate has indeed slowed, edging beneath 7% in 2015 for the first time since the first quarter of 2009. However, investors should note that China’s growth rate remains higher than most other major economies, and its consumer and service sectors are rising drivers of its GDP. Three emerging markets portfolio managers—Dale Winner, Anthony Cragg, and Jerry Zhang—offer their views on investing in China.
India: What Makes it Unique?
by Sunil Asnani of Matthews Asia,
The latest GDP figures of 7.3% year-over-year in India indicate growth is outpacing that of China, and affirms its spot as one of the world’s fastest-growing economies. With its vast population and the rapid changes taking place, some liken today’s India to China 20 years ago. We think this comparison is too shallow and does not tell the entire story. India’s evolution has been very different from the rest of the developing world. Here are five aspects unique to the Indian economy.
The Red Tour: Nanchang to Fuzhou
My team and I recently completed a multi-city tour of China, mainly via high-speed rail. We’ve explored cities including Shenzhen, Nanning, Guiyang, Changsha and Wuhan, searching for potential investment opportunities and seeing the economic conditions in China first-hand. This last stop on our tour offers a look at Nanchang and Fuzhou in southeastern China.
Signs of Hope Emerge, but Pessimism Remains High
Equity prices soared higher last week around the globe. In the United States, the S&P 500 Index climbed 2.9%, and gains in Europe and Asia were even higher. However, U.S. stocks continue to lead the pack year to date. At least some of the gains can be attributed to an oversold bounce and overly negative sentiment. Relative stability in oil prices and in China, along with decent economic and earnings data, helped as well.
Do a Grouch a Favor
Investors should consider rebalancing their portfolios away from trying to maximize return in favor of maximizing consistency of the return.
I would also strongly favor strategies that aim to directly manage the volatility of a portfolio rather than the return.
While such strategies may result in lower projected returns, investors who employ them are more likely to achieve those returns because lower volatility goes hand in hand with staying invested.
Finding Growth in Asia
by David Dali of Matthews Asia,
Where can investors find a reasonable investable theme? One thematic idea that I find fairly convincing is that Asia stands out in a world of low economic growth—especially emerging Asia—but, how you access that growth matters. This month, Matthews Asia Client Portfolio Strategist David Dali explores how to tap the growth opportunities within Asia.
Asia-Pacific: A Broader Investment Landscape in 2016
by Eric Mogelof of PIMCO,
In the turbulent market environment, five longer-term investment trends stand out for 2016.
It has been a turbulent year for Asia’s financial markets. In the following interview, Eric Mogelof, head of Asia-Pacific at PIMCO, puts events in perspective and discusses investment trends in the region for the year ahead.
Results 2,951–3,000
of 4,282 found.
