In the latest edition of “Global Macro Shifts,” the Templeton Global Macro team examines the plans to start shrinking the US Federal Reserve’s (Fed’s) balance sheet and the potential impacts to financial markets.
Advisors can learn from Vanguard, whose advice platform is adding $5 billion in assets a month, in part by making videoconferencing a core part of how it communicates with clients.
So I am sittin’ on a dock of the bay here in Boca Raton Florida watchin’ the tide roll away as I wait to speak at a conference of insurance CEOs and CFOs. I have spoken at this annual event for the past 10 years, and it is always a “gas” because the attendees are terrific people.
Even though they may not know it, many global consumers have at least one loan tied to the London Interbank Offered Rate (LIBOR). Yet, LIBOR’s regulator is calling for an end to the rate by the end of 2021.
Global growth has chugged along at a modest pace throughout 2017, and I expect more of the same heading into 2018. Read on for a visual snapshot of our key themes across the globe.
President Donald J. Trump nominated Jerome Powell to be chairman of the Federal Reserve Board. If confirmed, Governor Powell will replace Janet Yellen in February. Powell is smart, well-liked and respected by Republicans and Democrats alike.
The world is changing fast right now in ways that many investors might not easily recognize or want to admit. This could end up being a costly mistake. If you’re not paying attention, you could be letting opportunities pass you by without even realizing it. With that in mind, I’ve put together a list of five agents of change that I think investors need to be aware of and possibly factor into their decision-making process.
If you are like many people, you probably have put plenty of thought into what your ideal retirement would look like. Maybe it involves exotic travel, pursuing a favorite hobby or spending more time with friends and family.
Lately I’ve made leads appear out of thin air for myself and for my clients using this technique. I wouldn’t be writing this article if it didn’t work well. Read on to hear how you can get attention on the Internet for your brand even if you have no money and only a miniscule following.
Every advisor wants clients to be 100% satisfied, especially those top clients who drive profitability. It takes three things to ensure that your very best clients feel well served. Regrettably, most advisors do a mediocre job on the first two and an abysmal job on the third.
We have used the aforementioned quote many times over our nearly 50 years in this business, but surprisingly, it is just as relevant now as it was when first written. Bet it surprised you that the quote is dated 1935! Read it a few times away from the maddening crowd and reflect on it, because certain phrases will grab you with their wisdom.
What do living organisms, cities and businesses have in common? They all have organic characteristics: they’re born, grow, sometimes shrink and usually die. They all require energy to maintain and grow, and they all must deal with the sometimes undesirable byproducts of their existence.
“Don’t Fight the Tape or the Fed!” It is one of investing’s “golden” rules and is perhaps never more true than it is today. The Fed, ECB and BoJ own one-third of the global bond market. One-third! Pause, put finger to chin and wrap your mind around that one.
Lately, my life has been completely packed with speeches, meetings, and in-depth, often lengthy, conversations. Plus ongoing research and writing, of course. It all culminated Thursday afternoon at the beginning of a business meeting with the leadership team from a firm that will become a significant new business partner.
So few new large mines are being discovered today, mostly because companies have had to slash exploration budgets in response to lower gold prices. Earlier this year, S&P reported that total exploration budgets for companies involved in mining nonferrous metals fell for the fourth straight year in 2016. Budgets dropped to $6.9 billion, the lowest point in 11 years. Although we’ve seen an increase in spending so far this year, it still dramatically trails the 2012 heyday.
While tax cuts grab the headlines, the bigger issue for long-term economic growth is government spending. Tax receipts are above their long-term average as a share of GDP, but the government is still spending over $650 billion more than it takes in. And this government spending crowds out private sector growth.
Zhou Xiaochuan appeared to be talking about China, given his contextual warnings about the country’s high corporate and rising household debt loads. But the message may apply to frothy and debt-laden markets globally.
It remains a decidedly risk-on environment. Interest rates are higher, the dollar is higher and the stock market is higher. The positives for higher equity prices are the liquidity coming from global central bankers, the potential for the repatriation of offshore corporate cash...
I don’t want to be glib, but our educational system is largely a failure in producing children and young adults ready for the future. Why we would think that more of that would be useful? What we need to do is completely rethink the whole concept of what we call education.
Historically, the key to attracting clients was telling your story in a compelling fashion. Going forward, being articulate and persuasive will still be important – but not as much as having a differentiated and compelling story to tell in the first place. In fact, only those advisors who offer truly differentiated value to clients will be successful.
My keynote address on Tuesday focused on quant investing in gold mining and the booming initial coin offering (ICO) market. I’m thrilled to share with you that the presentation was voted the best, for which I was awarded an ounce of gold. I want to thank the London Bullion Market Association, its members and conference attendees for this honor.
The third quarter of 2017 was highlighted by unfavorable seasonal effects and a steady stream of nerve wracking geopolitical developments, but despite a challenging environment world equity markets persistently fought off short-term jitters and closed out the quarter solidly in the green.
When world leaders talk, markets react. And with social media becoming mainstream, politicians have a new way of getting their message to the masses.
The reports of the coming economic demise continue to prove premature. For much of the past few years, we have filled these pages with our data-driven retort to the constant noise about the next impending economic and market downturn.
Long-time readers know I’m an avid Ned Davis Research fan. I’ve been a loyal client since the 1990s. Ned Davis built a fact-based, technology-driven research organization. Some years ago, Ned wrote a book titled, Being Right or Making Money and I believe that title sums up NDR’s investment research culture.
Here’s my shocking idea on the best way to grow your practice.
Tighter monetary policy in advanced economies. Stretched asset valuations. These are anxious times for income-oriented investors. But don’t worry—it’s still possible to generate income without taking on unnecessary risk.
When I talk to advisors whose businesses are growing, I am struck by the extent to which they’ve changed and adapted the way they work. It’s not just that the things that made you successful in the past won’t lead to success in future. More alarming for many advisors, continuing to do the things that you’ve done to this point is a guaranteed prescription for failure.
The bulk of U.S. stock gains in this long-running bull market are due to one variable: the expansion of the price-to-earnings ratio.
This week we are going to take a hard look at the unfunded liabilities and debt of the US government. And even though the federal unfunded pension liabilities dwarf those of state and local pensions, I want to make it clear that I believe the state and local problems will be far more intractable.
I don’t think for a second that cryptocurrencies will ever replace gold, for a number of reasons. For one, cryptos are strictly forms of currency, whereas gold has many other time-tested applications, from jewelry to dentistry to electronics.
Chautauqua Capital Management is a long-term, quality-growth global equity investor with a generally optimistic view. However, we are less so today. Risks have increased, and the global financial markets appear to be at a heightened risk of a sell-off. Our concerns are around several factors, including the unwinding of extraordinary central bank policy, high valuations, investor compliancy, and heightened geopolitical risk.
This is the third of my four-part empirical research into the fallacy of the random walk view of investment reward and risk. Part 1 and Part 2 discussed the random walk's failure in portraying asset returns. A random walk depicts risk as volatility.
I’d like to take you to two places today. One is life and the pursuit of dreams. “I was born with a silver spoon in my mouth,” legendary Coach Lou Holtz begins. “You have to have something to hope for and something to dream about.” It is a six-minute happy pill. I watched it with my kids and they loved it. You’ll love it too, I promise.
Readers outside the US might have felt smug and safe reading those stories. There go those Americans again, spending wildly beyond their means. You are correct that, generally speaking, we are not exactly the thriftiest people on Earth. However, if you live outside the US, your country may be more like ours than you think. Today we’ll look at some data that will show you what I mean. This week the spotlight will be on Europe.
We would do well to heed the teaching of behavioralists as we craft solutions to some of today’s thorniest problems.
We see three risks to the outlook for steady economic growth. Yet we also see opportunities for investors to target above-benchmark returns while emphasizing defense at a time of low volatility and full valuations.
Harvard University’s endowment has transitioned from a portfolio of asset class sleeves to a generalist investment model—an approach we see clearly as multi-asset. At Russell Investments, we made the same move eight years ago—and are proud of the single, globally integrated investment team we have today.
Learn from our experts on what may further support small cap outperformance.
The final installment of our 2017 global market outlook is here. See our strategists’ views on global investment markets and economies.
The steady bull market—now the second largest—continues. The Dow just had its third nine-day win streak of 2017, which hasn’t happened within a single year since 1955. Can the rally continue? While longer-term technicals do look very healthy, a closer look suggests that it has been a historically long time since even a modest correction, thus increasing the chances of a rise in volatility soon.
Our lives often seem to be dominated by numbers. Social Security numbers, drivers’ license numbers, account numbers… an unlimited number of 0’s and 1’s residing in thousands of databases, many of which are designed to keep track of our every move. Most of these numbers used to identify us are not necessarily wanted.
The revolving door at the White House continued its rapid rotation during August. The Trump inner circle is now almost unrecognizable from the team surrounding him in January. If the White House was in the private sector the shareholders would be calling for the scalp of the CEO – and probably well before now. Soon everyone will be required to wear name tags. It is beyond fiction.
Bottom line: Those foreign central bank purchases translate to a vast sea of liquidity supporting stocks. Hartnett calls it the “supernova of liquidity” and “the flow that conquers all.” My motivation and title for today’s piece.
The data suggests that future market returns are likely to be lower than in the past. Can a multi-asset investing approach help make up the difference?
The U.S. high yield bond market has grown substantially to around $1.3 trillion today. At the same time, the global high yield market has become more geographically diverse. North America’s share of the market has fallen from 87.1% in 2005 to 62.6% in 2016.
My colleagues and I have been actively speaking about the evolution taking place in many emerging markets over the past few decades. We’ve seen dramatic shifts occurring, with the often one-dimensional economic models of the past giving way to new and diverse growth drivers.
As Germany prepares to go to the polls in its general election, David Zahn, Franklin Templeton Fixed Income Group’s head of European fixed income, considers what the result could mean for Europe, the European Union and the eurozone.
We have a light calendar for economic data. The week’s focus will be the FOMC policy announcement on Wednesday. Given the resilience of the market rally in the face of various natural and human threats, the punditry will turn to a favored topic. Expect people to be asking: Will the Fed be the catalyst for a market correction?