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Exposed: The Myth of Private Equity and Venture Capital Outperformance
by Larry Swedroe,
Don’t believe the claims of outperformance among private equity and venture capital investors. A recent study documents the daunting odds against picking a winner in these complex alternative asset classes. Fortunately, there’s a way for advisors to gain similar exposure to potentially higher returns in low-cost passive funds.
Indian Banks—An Attractive Secular Growth Story
Despite meaningful progress over the last four years, large chunks of the Indian population remain unbanked. The total number of unbanked Indians stood at 233 million in 2015, down from 557 million in 2011. That’s more than the populations of Germany, the United Kingdom and France combined.
A Top-Performing Multi-Asset ESG Income Fund
by Robert Huebscher,
Martin Wildy is portfolio manager of the Eventide Multi-Asset Income Fund. Martin has more than 10 years of experience as a portfolio manager and analyst, building sustainable portfolios of companies in the tech, banking, real estate, and other sectors. His fund actively invests in green bonds, “yieldcos” and MLPs. I spoke with Martin on June 24.
Brexit Volatility Creates Opportunities
Last week's referendum in the U.K. sent risk-asset markets into a tailspin, as investors wonder what "Brexit"—the U.K.'s exit from the European Union—means for the U.K., the E.U. and, by extension, global markets. The political, economic and market implications are significant for both sides of the English Channel, and beyond. It's critical, however, to understand how the process is slated to play out near term and farther down the road and to recognize the many questions and uncertainties regarding its repercussions while keeping them in perspective. As always, the key to successful investing in an uncertain world is carefully considering future prospects relative to current prices.
A Low-Cost Tactically Managed ETF Solution
by Robert Huebscher,
Sage Advisory Services was founded in 1996 by Robert G. Smith, III and Mark C. MacQueen with a simple mission: to better meet the unique investment management needs of institutions and individuals through industry-leading analytical services, innovative investment solutions and an unwavering focus on risk management. I spoke with Bob Smith about Sage’s strategies and how they are helping advisors achieve their clients’ investment objectives.
Municipals Buck the Seasonal Trend
by Anthony Valeri of LPL Financial,
Municipal bonds have thus far bucked the trend of typical headwinds in June. The Barclays Municipal Bond Index has returned 1.1% month to date through June 17, 2016, a stark contrast to the -0.55% total return the Barclays Municipal Bond Index has averaged in June over the past 10 years. The index has posted positive returns only three times over that time span—a remarkably poor batting average for any interest bearing sector—illustrating the consistency of June challenges until this year.
How USAA Funds is Serving Advisors
by Robert Huebscher,
USAA Investments manages over $68 billion in assets. I spoke with Karyn Bostick, director of third-party distribution, and Regina Shafer, portfolio manager of the five-star and bronze-rated USAA Tax-Exempt Intermediate-Term Bond Fund (USATX), at this year’s Morningstar conference in Chicago.
Gundlach – Trump Will Be an Economic Success
by Robert Huebscher,
Not only will Donald Trump win the November election, but his victory will propel U.S. economic growth higher, according to Jeffrey Gundlach. Trump will fuel a debt-driven increase in government spending, which Gundlach said will push GDP growth to levels reminiscent of the Ronald Reagan era.
Are There 'Good Months' and 'Bad Months' to Invest?
by Tracy Fielder of Invesco,
There are seasons I look forward to during the year — the warm months for fishing and the cold months for hunting — and some I’d just as soon avoid — like hurricane season and allergy season. One of the questions I often hear from investors is whether there’s an ideal “investing season” that they should plan for each year. Is there any truth to the adage to “sell in May and go away,” and is the “October effect” really something to fear?
Our Five Year Forecast for the S&P 500 (SPY), S&P 400 (MDY), and S&P 600 (IJR)
by Kendall Anderson of Anderson Griggs,
Long-term forecasting is more of an art than a science. As none of us can tell the future, we should probably all put our skeptics’ hats on and view any and all forecasts as educated guesses. However, the fact that the future is unknown does not allow us as investors to abstain completely from the process of forecasting.
On My Radar: “Float Like a Butterfly, Sting Like a Bee”
Our team spends a great deal of time debating the economic outlook and to say PJ Grzywacz is bright would be an understatement. Sometimes our discussions get passionate and I think it is a good thing. To wit, passion in everything is a good thing. PJ challenges all things that might lead to “groupthink” biases. Something we think about a lot.
Hot Summer Economic Weirdness
by John Mauldin of Mauldin Economics,
We who inhabit the northern hemisphere will soon enter summer. Many would say summer is already with us – most schools are closed, and a general laziness is beginning to set in – especially for those in the “protected” class. For many of them, summer is a verb. They “summer” in the Hamptons, or Lake Tahoe, or somewhere in the tropics.
Are We Nearing the End of the EU Experiment?
If you’re a serious investor—and because you’re reading this, I have to assume that you are—gold is looking more and more like a crucial trade. Only two weeks remain before United Kingdom voters decide on whether the country will continue to be a member of the European Union (EU) or become the first-ever to leave it. The “Brexit,” as it’s come to be known, is arguably the most consequential political event of 2016—perhaps even more so than the U.S. presidential election in November—with far-reaching implications.
Schwab Market Perspective: Summer of Discontent?
As amusement park visits rise in the summer months, the ever-popular roller coaster analogy seems appropriate for the stock market. Since the beginning of 2015, stocks have had some fairly major ups and downs, but we now sit about where we began. Unfortunately, it’s not as easy for investors to get off the ride, and we expect the frustrating, grinding environment to continue for the near future. Equities have yet been unable to break through to new highs, while fixed income continues to offer little in terms of yield.
2Q 2016 Outlook How Long Will Markets Continue This Wild Ride?
Markets have taken investors on a wild ride in 2016, with conflicting messages about expectations for economic growth and inflation. Through April, the S&P 500 Index had returned just more than 3%, erasing its 10% correction at the start of the year. Since a trough on Feb. 11, global and domestic equities have largely followed suit and rebounded to the levels of fourth-quarter 2015. The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield hit a low for the year so far of 1.66% on that date, but ended April around 1.83% — although not without its own choppiness. The CBOE Volatility Index spiked in January and February, fell off in March and early April and then showed rising volatility again at the end of April. In our view, this has become a speculative market.
Ideas?!
by Jeffrey Saut of Raymond James,
Many of you know the way that I construct portfolios. I typically begin with a base of mutual funds, but not just any mutual fund. I tend to invest in mutual funds where I know the portfolio manager (PM) and like his or her investment style. Then, because I talk to these PMs, I hear lots of good ideas.
A New Strategy for Downside Protection or Yield Enhancement
by Robert Huebscher,
Vest Financial Group Inc. was cofounded in 2012 by Jeff Chang. In this interview, Chang discusses Vest’s dedication to serving investment advisor and brokerage firms in bringing wider access to innovative options-based strategies.
How to Exploit the Achilles Heel of Robo Advisors
by Dan Solin,
A pivotal difference between robo- and human advisors is the level of fiduciary care they provide to clients. Understanding how to exploit this Achilles Heel will allow planners to compete effectively with the next generation of technology-enabled advice.
Central Bank “Fairy Dust”
If we put hope and wishful thinking aside and look at what the economic and corporate data tells us, the U.S. economy is flirting with recession and markets are due for a bear market correction of 30-50%. The U.S. and global economies are growing more slowly than forecasted just a few months ago. Data indicates that instead of getting stronger, macro trends are getting weaker.
Nothing
by Jeffrey Saut of Raymond James,
“Nothin’ from nothin’ leaves nothin’ (Billy Preston)” . . . is the first line from Billy Preston’s hit song “Nothing From Nothing” recorded in 1974 on the album “The Kids & Me.” It was a song one of my bands used to play in an era long gone by. I recalled the tune while reading one market maven’s letter last Tuesday where the author commented that, “Monday was perhaps the nothingest of nothing days.”
On My Radar: 2016 Strategic Investment Conference
Yusko took the stage Thursday morning and told a story about a time in 1999 when he served as the chief investment officer of the University of North Carolina endowment. He presented to his board in December 1999 and showed them the GMO 10-year forward annualized return predictions. GMO had advised investors to expect a negative 1.9% over the coming decade (annualized per year for ten years from 2000 – 2010).
Stocks Stuck in the Muck
The running-to-stand-still pattern in U.S. equities may continue, with bouts volatility expected. But U.S. economic growth appears to be improving and stocks could start to sniff out a potentially better second half for both the economy and earnings. Investors should remain patient, and use volatility as opportunities to rebalance around normal strategic allocations in both U.S. and international equities.
Actively Managed Exchange-Traded Products at Age Seven
The first actively managed exchange-traded product (ETP) was launched in March 2008. Seven years after initial introduction, first-generation active ETPs have total net assets of $19.46 billion – less than 0.2% of the combined assets of actively managed mutual funds and active ETPs. The slow development of active ETPs primarily reflects the reluctance of fund sponsors to offer leading active strategies in a format that requires daily disclosure of fund holdings. Unlike first-generation active ETPs, NextShares are not required to disclose their daily holdings and can therefore maintain the confidentiality of fund trading information. Operating as NextShares, active ETPs can realize their full potential as alternatives to traditional mutual funds with built-in performance and tax advantages and the convenience of exchange trading.
The Ugly Truth About Buy and Hold
by Don Schreiber, Jr of WBI Investments,
Over the past 35-40 years, the industry and media have told investors to invest passively, or to buy and hold. We believe this approach is flawed and hurting rather than helping people invest successfully. The passive, buy and hold concept was developed in response to the damage inflicted on investors and the mutual fund industry in the 1970s.
Weekly Market Summary
by Urban Carmel of The Fat Pitch,
After gaining 16% from the February low, SPX has been trading in a 2% range during May. A minor 20% of the rally has been retraced, a sign of resilience and consolidation. Despite the recent rally, investors are positioned for weakness, not further gains. There might still be a capitulation low ahead but the set up is for higher prices in the next month(s). End of May and start of June seasonality is possible short-term tailwind for equities.
May Market Outlook Update
by Jim McDonald of Northern Trust,
Something’s gotta give. The global growth environment remains subpar — stable but at a disappointingly sluggish pace. Central bankers, where possible, continue to ease policy, but the financial market reaction is increasingly unpredictable. In this environment, the predominant theme this year has been a bounce back in the most beaten-down assets — including commodities and emerging markets.
Yield-Starved Foreign Investors Are Flooding the U.S. Muni Market
Strange are the times when a third of all government debt around the world carries a negative yield, and yet such is the case today. From Japan to eurozone countries, investors are faced with the tough decision of accepting subzero yields, doing nothing—or seeking other so-called “safe haven” options. Many have rediscovered gold, and as I pointed out earlier this week, demand for the yellow metal as an investment just had its best first quarter ever, with near-record inflows into gold ETFs.
Five Writing Mistakes that Sabotage Your Investment Commentary
by Susan B. Weiner,
Are you sabotaging your investment commentary with bad writing? You may have wonderful insights into the markets, the mutual funds or ETFs you use or your clients’ best next steps. But if your ideas are poorly written, they won’t win the results that you desire. Clients, prospects and referral sources will turn away if you don’t recognize – and fix – the five mistakes I identify below.
Gundlach: Trump Will Win
by Robert Huebscher,
Donald Trump will be our next president, according to Jeffrey Gundlach, because Hillary Clinton is such an ineffective campaigner. Gundlach did not endorse Trump or say whether he would vote for him. But he said a Trump victory is inevitable – and offered some insight into how markets will react.
April Cools
A calmer tone prevailed across markets in April despite major central banks choosing to pause from adding substantial support.
Mixed economic data underscored a tepid fundamental backdrop.
The market rally continued in April, though underlying sentiment may have cooled more than the rally suggested.
On My Radar: Champions of Conviction
“Invest in good companies, don’t use leverage, invest in liquid investments, don’t do private deals and light a candle and pray for a positive outcome.”
-Leon Cooperman, Omega
“Debt drains away vital resources from economic growth. Fighting a debt crisis with more debt is doomed to failure, yet that is not only what global central banks did during the crisis but long after markets stabilized (though the crisis never truly ended, just slowed). This was an epic policy failure that continues today.”
-Michael Lewitt, The Credit Strategist
Is Banking Going Back Into the Shadows?
by Carl Tannenbaum of Northern Trust,
Interest rates have been very low for a long time now. One of the stated intentions of the policy was to encourage investors to be somewhat less conservative, placing their capital in areas that would be more helpful to economic growth.
Results 2,201–2,250
of 3,303 found.