Search Results
Results 6,001–6,050
of 6,534 found.
Monthly Investment Commentary
U.S. stocks resumed their positive streak in July (after a slightly negative June). Large-cap stocks rose in three out of the four weeks and were up 5% for the month. Smaller companies generally outperformed their larger-cap counterparts. After Federal Reserve comments regarding the timing of its stimulus withdrawal upset markets in May and June (particularly the bond market), investors seemed to take comfort in the Feds more recent comments. Among other points, Chairman Bernanke reiterated that a decision to taper bond purchases is different from raising the federal funds rate
Forrest Gump Stock Market
After watching "Forrest Gump" for about the thirtieth time recently, I realized that the US economy and US stock market share a great deal in common with Forrest. In this missive, we will be reminded of the journey of a true American folk hero and of the journey back from the abyss the US economy and stock market have made since early in 2009.
On Tapering, All Signs Point to “Maybe”
by Scott Brown of Raymond James,
Investors looking to the July 30-31 Fed policy meeting minutes for clear clues on future moves were left disappointed. Nearly all senior Fed officials expect that a reduction in the pace of asset sales is likely to be warranted by the end of the year. However, they appear evenly divided on whether that will be sooner (September) or later (December). The economic data remained mixed, suggesting that the decision will be a close call.
Equities Relatively Flat as Crosscurrents Remain
by Bob Doll of Nuveen Asset Management,
U.S. equities finished mostly higher last week, and the S&P 500 advanced 0.50%.1 The Dow Jones Industrial Average was the only the only major U.S. index to falter last week.1 Market sentiment was dominated by the notion that the market had become too bearish in the wake of the prior weeks sell-off in equities and credit. Continued improvement in global recovery sentiment seemed to provide a notable tailwind. The Fed dominated headlines markets appear obsessed with policy normalization and succession issues.
Revisiting the USD Bull Market
The USD bull market has begun with signs that the USD is transitioning to a cyclical currency. Monetary policy divergences in G4, slowing in USD diversification and a dramatic turnaround in the twin deficits, provide a strong fundamental underpinning to a USD rally going forward.
5 China Charts That Look Bullish for Commodities
Over the past few months, investors have seen better economic data coming out of Europe. Consumer confidence in the continent has been rising, manufacturing data is improving and the fiscal situation is on the mend. Now, China appears to be strengthening as well, which could signal better times ahead. Below are five charts that look bullish for China and commodities. While not meant to be comprehensive, they do point to areas where investors might want to pay close attention.
Utilities - Today's Best Bond Alternative
by Chuck Carnevale of F.A.S.T. Graphs,
To refer to any stock or equity as an alternative to bonds or fixed income is sure to stir up the ire and consternation of many professional and individual investors alike who deem themselves prudent. Frankly, under normal circumstances I would tend to agree.
Hot Potato: Momentum As An Investment Strategy
by Ryan Larson of Research Affiliates,
Investors increasingly are attracted to momentum as a key ingredient in their portfolios. But how does momentum fare as a stand-alone strategy? In this issue of Fundamentals, we look at the pros and cons of this important risk factor.
Active ETF Market Share Update & Weekly Market Review
Last week, total AUM in all active ETFs fell by over $60.5 million. AUM in the Global Bond category fell by nearly $89 million both because of falling values for ETFs in the category and redemptions in certain ETFs. The Foreign Bond category had another bad week, ending almost $36 million below where it began. As in previous weeks, assets in Short Term Bond active ETFs increased, this time by almost $36.5 million.
Trickle-Up Economics
Major magazines have a history of putting a topic on their cover at the end of a long-term trend. For example, The Death of Equities was a Business Week cover in late 1979, near the end of a miserable stretch in the US stock market. Times recent cover story, The Childfree Life, got us wondering about the economics of childbearing in the US? Does Times cover mark the end of a trend? Can the US economy succeed without homegrown population increases? Will economic success driven by the current demographics in the US trickle down to unemployed blue collar
Tapering Uncertainty Means Volatile But Range-Bound 10-Year Rate
by Chun Wang of The Leuthold Group,
The U.S. 10-year yield was pretty much trapped within a 25 bps range between 250 and 275 in July (Chart 1), but intra-day volatility has picked up noticeably. In the last three months, there were 21 days of greater than 5 bps daily moves and 7 days of greater than 10 bps daily moves on the U.S. 10-year yield, the most in the last one and a half years.
The GDP Distractor
by Peter Schiff of Euro Pacific Capital,
Albert Einstein, a man who knew a thing or two about celestial mechanics, supposedly once called compound interest "the most powerful force in the universe." While the remark was likely meant to be funny (astrophysicists can be hilarious), it sheds light on the often overlooked fact that small changes, over time, can yield enormous results. Over eons, small creeks can carve large canyons through solid rock. The same phenomenon may be at work in our economy.
Which Crowd? Mulling the Investment Wisdom of the Masses
by Steven Grey,
With every investment or trade, the profits that accrue with the passage of time eventually prove one party the wiser. But of what practical value is the notion of collective wisdom if investors can’t consistently identify the ’wise’ crowd before the fact?
The Embassy Closings
In the first week of August, the Obama administration announced the closing of 22 embassies and consulates across the Middle East and North Africa. In this report, we will discuss the role of the embassy for a superpower, the return of al Qaeda, including its strengths and weaknesses, the nature of the terrorist groups intelligence and an examination of other actions that may be behind activities in Yemen.As always, we will conclude with potential market ramifications.
Target-Date Funds: Why Higher Equity Allocations Work
by Joe Tomlinson,
Following the 2008 financial crisis, target-date funds (TDFs) were criticized for exposing investors nearing retirement to excessive equity allocations. Were those criticisms justified? How well do TDFs stack up against the venerable strategy of matching one’s bond allocation to one’s age? My research has yielded surprising answers to those questions and to the proper role of single-premium immediate annuities (SPIAs) alongside TDFs.
Equity Fatigue Continues with Headwinds from Bond Sell-off
by Bob Doll of Nuveen Asset Management,
U.S. equities finished lower for the second straight week as the S&P 500 declined 2.04%, narrowly escaping its worst week of the year. A specific catalyst behind the pullback was not identified by us or market analysts.
Temptress Time?!
by Jeffrey Saut of Raymond James,
I dont equate gambling with investing, but many do by using margin, options, exotic derivatives, and what-have-you to leverage their various market positions. To be sure, some seers say that the public has been buying 2 to 1, and even 3 to 1, leveraged exchange-traded funds (ETFs) on 50% margin, which gives those positions 4:1 and 6:1 leverage, in an attempt to try and outperform the S&P 500. When leverage works in your favor, it can multiply profits enormously.
The Tick-Tock on Tapering
by Scott Brown of Raymond James,
The Feds September 18 decision on whether to begin reducing the pace of asset purchases will depend on the economic data (the job market figures, in particular), but theres a growing consensus that were likely to see a modest initial step, as a compromise between Fed officials who want to end the program sooner and those that want to see it continued. There are other things for policymakers to consider. One is the possibility of an adverse reaction in the financial markets. Another concern is the low underlying trend in inflation.
The Case for Global Dividends: Valuations and the Impact of Rising Rates
The S&P 500 Index has risen over 150 percent since March 9, 2009 in what could arguably be deemed the most hated equity rally of all time. The MSCI All Country World Index, one of the broadest global indices, has risen just 110 percent since its March 2009 nadir. Evidence indicates that United States (U.S.) investors have not participated in this rallya truly sad state of affairs. It is worthy of noting that over the last several years a number of well known market pundits have viscerally rejected the equity rally due to macroeconomic concerns.
Using Equities to Hedge Inflation? Tread With Care
by Bob Greer, Raji Manasseh of PIMCO,
Historically, broad equity returns have not intrinsically provided a good hedge against inflation. Three key attributes may help companies withstand inflationary environments - pricing power, supply side advantages and a willingness and ability to sustain dividend hikes at a rate faster than inflation. To realize equities long-term potential as a key source of portfolio returns, investors should consider enlisting active managers who select stocks with a view on inflation and its effect on specific companies.
Correlation and Portfolio Construction
by Dean Curnutt of Macro Risk Advisors,
We review recent periods of financial market stress, which bring about elevated levels of asset volatility and during which investors are vulnerable to incurring substantial loss of capital. We illustrate that risk is determined both by the volatility of individual investments in a portfolio and the degree to which they are correlated. Often overlooked, correlation is a critical factor. Because assets become more correlated at the same time they become more volatile, we argue that the benefits of diversification often are difficult to achieve when they are most needed.
Does the Recent Decline in the Unemployment Rate Reflect an Improving Labor Market?
by Paul Kasriel of The Econtrarian,
Last Friday the BLS reported that the national unemployment rate declined by two-tenths of a percentage point in July vs. June. On the surface, that would seem to be good news for the labor market, right? Not according to the knee-jerk analysis by a lot of jerks on cable financial news.
Envisioning the Planning Firm of the Future
by Bob Veres,
Virtually all advisors operate with a value proposition built on bettering their clients financial future through management of their assets. But trends in the workforce and capital markets will force advisors to rethink those assumptions and, if Richie Lee is right, the planning firm of the future will adapt a four-factor service model that places much greater emphasis on helping clients maximize their human capital.
China's Government Can't Stop the Bust
On a recent trip to Europe we participated in a forum in Milan of five stock picking organizations. Two were from Brazil, one was from Malaysia and one was picking stocks inside China via the Shanghai Stock Exchange. We believe what they said was an enticement to investors for the purpose of getting them excited about stocks in their country. To us, this reveals a great deal about where prices in emerging stock markets and commodities are headed over the next five to seven years.
The Half Full Economy
by Peter Schiff of Euro Pacific Capital,
The marginal economic strength that was described in the most recent GDP release from Washington has caused many to double down on their belief that the Fed will begin tapering QE sometime later this year. While I believe that is a fantasy given our economys extreme dependence on QE, market observers should have learned long ago that the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) initial GDP estimates cant be trusted. A perusal of their subsequent GDP revisions in the last five years reveals a clear trend: They are almost twice as likely to revise initial estimates down rather than up.
ECRI Recession Watch: Weekly Update
The Weekly Leading Index (WLI) of the Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI) is at 131.8, essentially unchanged from last weeks 131.7 (a downward revision from 131.8). At the end of July the company posted a new commentary, Becoming Japan, which highlights the decline in GDP growth for Japan and seven other major economies, including the US. Also this week ECRIs Lakshman Achuthan defended his companys recession call on Bloomberg TV.
Quarterly Letter
by Team of Grey Owl Capital Management,
To begin, let us state that we are tired of writing about macroeconomic issues. We suspect you are tired of reading about them. We would like nothing more than to send out a quarterly letter full of updates on the companies we own and the rationale for individual buy and sell decisions. Nevertheless, we must address the market action following Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernankes May 22nd testimony before Congress, where he merely floated the idea of tapering the Feds quantitative easing efforts.
Investment Advice Technology and How to Lose Money in the Coming Years
by Kendall Anderson of Anderson Griggs,
Adventures are good for my soul. They create wonderful memories, both of where I have been and all the effort it took to get there. All of us have memories, both good and not so good. I am a bit worried about the near term future.
Looking Farther Down the Road
The stock market has continued to do very well over the summer months, reaching new, all-time highs and proving to even the most stubborn of skeptics that Great Recessions can become Great Recoveries for those with the appropriate time horizon. While our industry spends a great deal of time and effort focused on relative performance results compared to appropriate benchmarks, the greatest value any financial advisor or money manager can provide is usually addressed far less often; simply keeping you in the game.
Unlocking the Two Mysteries behind SPIAs
by Wade Pfau,
Two mysteries confound planners who purchase single-premium immediate annuities (SPIAs) for their clients: Why does the present value of a SPIA often exceed its cost, and why do equity allocations appear to increase when a SPIA is purchased? Unlocking those mysteries requires advisors to use a different framework ? based on the household balance sheet ? for the withdrawal phase of retirement.
The Employment Situation and A Look at Housing
by Gregg Bienstock of Lumesis,
This week, we start with a return to our tidbits and then insight and thoughts around the Employment Situation as reported on Friday and our take on that and related data. We also take a look at Homeownership data and wonder if the glass is half full or empty.
Avoiding Pricey Low Volatility Investing
by Feifei Li of Research Affiliates,
Low volatility investing reduces a portfolios exposure to the market factor in favor of other historically reliable sources of equity risk premium.But the alluring risk-adjusted performance characteristics of low volatility strategies have lately attracted serious investors, and many managers have developed products to meet the growing demand.Is it possible to preserve the benefits of low volatility investing when prices rise?Feifei Li, Head of Research, suggests implementation refinements that might make a difference.
Why Tinkering Too Much with Your Portfolio Won't Pay Off
by Team of Knowledge @ Wharton,
When it comes to your investment portfolio, how much attention is too much -- and what constitutes too little? In a recent paper, Wharton finance professor Andrew B. Abel and two colleagues found that even when transaction costs are small, it makes more sense to act according to a schedule with surprisingly long intervals. Too much fussing, in other words, is counterproductive -- even if its cheap.
Is It Time for the Fed to Wind Down the Economic Stimulus?
by Team of Knowledge @ Wharton,
Is it time for the Federal Reserve to start tapering down the "quantitative easing" bond-buying program that has helped stimulate the U.S. economy since the financial crisis of 2008? Views are mixed. Several experts, say yes, its time. Others worry it could be too soon.
Still High Time for High Yield?
Given recent strong performance and yields hovering at historic lows, a current topic of debate has been whether the high yield bond market has become an asset bubble and how much of a risk is the potential end to the Federal Reserve?s accommodative monetary policy to high yield investors. While we at Rainier acknowledge there are current risks in the fixed income market, we believe these concerns are not unique to high yield bonds.
The U.S. Energy Revolution
In March 1971, the Texas Railroad Commission (TRC), which allocated oil production for the state of Texas, announced that producers in the state would be allowed a full allocation. This was the first time the TRC had allowed Texas producers to supply an unlimited amount of crude oil since WWII.
Royal Babies and Economic Growth
On a recent business trip to Europe, we noticedanecdotallya lack of hope in the economic future of Europe. There is a good reason for the lack of hope. Hope, we believe, comes in the form of new life. When all of the austerity being practiced in developed nations around the world is pretty much done, something else needs to happen for economic growth to take hold. At Smead Capital Management, we believe developed economies need rebirth and the birth last week of a son to the Royal family is a watershed event.
Will a New Fed Chairman Derail the Stock Market Rally?
Over the past two years, investor exuberance has poured over $150 billion into equity funds. The perception of market risk has been sharply lowered over the past years by the central banks supportive activities in the capital markets and the high octane fuel of near zero interest rates. Meanwhile, Bernankes buyback of treasury and mortgage back securities is at a pace of moving the Feds balance sheet to over $4 trillion.
What's Wrong With Indexes?
It has been more than 35 years since the first broad market index funds debuted. At the time, they were a cutting edge strategy for core equity allocation. Today, index funds are a major part of 401(k) and other retirement plans, particularly ones tracking the Standard & Poors 500. But they have deep flaws.
For A Healthier Portfolio - Look Here
by Chuck Carnevale of F.A.S.T. Graphs,
The Health Care sector is comprised of many diverse companies, as can be seen from the list of subsectors provided below. Historically the Health Care sector has been comprised of a significant number of companies with above-average growth rates of earnings. Consequently, a majority of the companies comprising the Health Care sector could be thought of as growth stocks over dividend growth stocks.
Summer Quarterly Commentary
Recently the Fed indicated it may begin returning control over market pricing and interest rates to Adam Smiths invisible hand... and borderline chaos erupted. The episode began mid-day May 22nd as Congress questioned Fed Chairman Bernanke and suddenly the cat was out of the bag and a paradigm shift ensued. Bond funds suffered some of their largest weekly redemptions on record. Rates spiked and markets swooned around the world through late June as investors assumed the worst.
Results 6,001–6,050
of 6,534 found.
