The European Central Bank is likely at or very near its peak policy rate, but we don’t expect rate cuts in the near term.
PIMCO’s Global Advisory Board discusses economic and geopolitical factors shaping the long-term global outlook.
We believe idiosyncratic credit events may occur over the next 12 months, but systemic bank risk is remote.
The Fed chair’s high-profile speech emphasized the central bank’s focus on taming inflation.
Commodities stand to benefit from underinvestment and the clean energy transition.
We see compelling value in high-quality, liquid fixed income assets that may offer potential resiliency if the economy weakens.
The sovereign credit rating cut is unlikely to significantly change views toward U.S. Treasuries, but questions about debt sustainability may grow louder over time.
The Bank of Japan announced changes that could allow its yield curve control program to expire gradually if economic conditions are favorable.
Amid an outlook for slower growth and more moderate inflation, the Fed shifts to data dependence.
High-quality fixed-income assets may offer the best return potential in more than a decade along with diversification benefits as a likely recession approaches.
After stubborn U.S. inflation in the first half of 2023 kept the Federal Reserve raising rates, June’s softer inflation report suggests July may mark the end of the hiking cycle.
Debt-financed fiscal policy is driving much of today’s high inflation, but as pandemic-era measures fade, central banks will likely return to their key role in managing price levels.
The European Central Bank (ECB) hikes rates and signals more tightening ahead.
Our long-term outlook for commercial real estate investing argues for a flexible, long-term approach to seize opportunities in debt and equity investments across the real estate landscape.
The Federal Reserve paused in June but raised its estimates for the policy rate later this year. We expect a July increase but remain skeptical about subsequent hikes.
State and local tax revenues sank in April, yet we believe most governments have strong fiscal positions, with ample reserves and budget flexibility to manage the decline.
With their ability to act as an inflation hedge, diversified, and return enhancer, commodities should be considered an important portfolio allocation over the long term.
The first few years of the 2020s have seen a number of acute economic, financial, and geopolitical disruptions on a worldwide scale, and it will take time for the ultimate consequences of these shocks to be fully felt.
An in-depth analysis of hedge fund performance demonstrates that, over the past 15 years, lower-beta hedge fund styles have generally achieved higher alpha, aligning with investors' objectives of maximizing returns and diversification.
Despite economic uncertainty, we see compelling value in high-quality, liquid assets that we view as more resilient in the face of a potential recession.
Although affordability remains an obstacle, recent data offer reasons to be more constructive as broader conditions still appear supportive of home prices.
An allocation to fixed income may help investors navigate a potential recession as well as uncertainty around the Federal Reserve’s policy trajectory.
Higher bond yields and improved total return potential may offer advisors a compelling opportunity to move cash off the sidelines.
March inflation data may put the Federal Reserve close to its terminal policy rate this cycle, if it hasn’t already reached it.
History suggests the lagged economic effects of tighter central bank policy are arriving on schedule, but any eventual normalizing or even easing of policy will still likely require inflation to decline further.
Slower credit growth may curtail broader U.S. economic growth, taking pressure off the Federal Reserve.
In a dovish move, the central bank raises rates by half a point.
The failure of Silicon Valley Bank raises questions for Fed policy and economic growth.
Strength in employment and inflation has caused markets to raise the implied terminal rate while still expecting the Fed to normalize policy – which is different from easing – in 2024.
Bond markets are pricing in additional Federal Reserve interest rate hikes, acknowledging the central bank’s emphatic resolve to tame inflation despite the likely trade-offs.
U.S. inflation may not be moderating as quickly as many were expecting.
After withstanding a multitude of global challenges last year, emerging markets look poised for improvement as inflation recedes and the path of monetary policy comes into view.
The European Central Bank raised its policy rate, and more hikes are coming.
Investors face mixed signals between the Federal Reserve’s policy guidance and recent economic developments.
As investors seek to pinpoint market expectations for Federal Reserve policy, it’s critical to consider not just rate projections and derivatives pricing, but the degree of uncertainty and distribution of outcomes.
Focusing on high quality and liquidity when taking risk in portfolios will be key in 2023, as pressure on monetary policy remains intense.
After enduring one of the worst years on record across asset classes, investors should find more cause for optimism in 2023, even as the global economy faces challenges.
The European Central Bank is likely to continue hiking rates next year, but the end point remains uncertain.
Falling prices for cars and holiday discounting contributed to softer U.S. inflation, creating more room for the Fed to potentially dial back its hawkish stance.
A multi-real-asset strategy may help plan participants preserve and grow purchasing power, enhance portfolio diversification, and mitigate inflation risks.
How we’re thinking about investing against a backdrop of inflation uncertainty, geopolitical tension, and likely recession.
A split U.S. Congress in 2023 will likely limit fiscal policy, but could be positive for equity markets.
With interest rates higher amid a challenging macro environment, we see a compelling case for bond allocations and are cautious about higher-risk investments.
Core inflation came in below expectations for October and should moderate in 2023, but likely with bumps in the road ahead.
Inflation is receding and real interest rates are climbing in EM after a year of tightening monetary policy.
The Federal Reserve’s November statement included dovish language, but Fed Chair Powell warned investors not to expect the Fed to stray from its full focus on fighting inflation.
The central bank noted that substantial progress has been made in withdrawing monetary policy accommodation, and expressed concerns around growth and policy transmission lags.
