It’s hard to believe that U.S. President Donald Trump has only been in office for a month, given the dizzying activity in Washington. Yet our observations from before the inauguration seem to be holding true, at least so far: Governing is indeed harder than campaigning.
With Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen on Capitol Hill for two days of testimony last week, plus Vice Chairman Stanley Fischer’s interview on Bloomberg TV, plus the upside surprise on U.S. CPI inflation data released on 15 February, the minutes...
A recent trip to Moscow on the 100th anniversary of the 1917 revolution revealed not a whiff of revolutionary change in the economy, but rather stagnant growth mixed with structural stability. We could simply call it “stagnant stability.”
Market nerves in anticipation of the French presidential elections in April and May 2017 have driven a spike in 10-year French and Italian government bond spreads, which have climbed 30 to 40 basis points (bps) in recent weeks (to 75 bps and 195 bps over bunds, respectively).
The Fed could contain inflation fears in the bond market by taking a more hawkish stance.
Floating rate bank loans, which are typically the most senior debt in an issuer’s capital structure, have traditionally been considered more resilient than high yield bonds in the event of default.
One of the most interesting and, for many observers, surprising market developments year-to-date has been the gradual descent of the broad trade-weighted U.S. dollar from the lofty 14-year highs reached late last year.
Ahead of Thursday’s quarterly Inflation Report, the Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) faced a relatively tricky challenge.
We see little probability of high core inflation rates in the eurozone, but instead a gradual increase toward the ECB target of just below 2% over the next few years.
Investors need to prepare for more extreme economic outcomes – both good and bad.