Raymond James Chief Economist Eugenio J. Alemán discusses current economic conditions

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As we expected, the Supreme Court struck down most of the new tariffs President Trump had imposed since taking office thirteen months ago.

The U.S. economy is all in on artificial intelligence (AI). But there are some natural limitations to progress which will have to be carefully managed.

Wealth management tech helps RIAs scale, but integration challenges and learning curves remain barriers to maximizing effectiveness.

Income rather than price is the primary driver of FRN returns. As policy rates and SOFR move, FRN coupons adjust accordingly, allowing income to rise in higher-rate environments and decline when rates fall.

The central theme of 2025 was the disconnect between market sentiment and economic reality. The year began with widespread apprehension regarding aggressive tariffs and forecasts of a recession.

“China is dumping US Treasuries to get out of the dollar.” This claim has been circulating the mainstream feeds lately, with the narrative that the “end of the dollar is near,” or “the US will lose its funding base,” and “bond yields will surge.” But are those claims valid? Such is what we will explore in more detail.

Is inflation rising or falling? Is unemployment solid or are there significant issues? Given the massive revisions of labor data, how can we base decisions on employment numbers? And what happens when the various collected data conflicts with themselves?

Investment strategy is never easy, but we have started this year with a remarkable confluence of shifting factors: technological, economic and geopolitical. Understanding how they will play out and interact becomes crucial to asset allocation.

It can sometimes be hard to tell whether the US housing market is hot or cold. Currently, existing-home inventory is tight and prices are stable—indicators of a hot market—while sales volume is down and home price appreciation has slowed. So, what’s the temperature?

While the Court did not explicitly order refunds to be paid — instead sending that decision to the lower courts — by some estimates this decision opens the door to potentially as much as $175 billion in tariff reimbursements to U.S. importers.

In recent editions of Macro Signposts, we’ve emphasized how U.S. policy changes coinciding with the emergence of a new general-purpose technology (AI) may be accelerating adoption and diffusion of that technology – while also driving economic adjustments.

As investor expectations evolve, and tax awareness becomes more central to portfolio construction, active tax management has emerged as a defining feature of sophisticated investment strategies. Across both equities and fixed income, disciplined processes may help investors retain more of what they earn.

For today’s RIAs, the tension is real. Many clients seek portfolios tailored to their individual goals and values, while advisory firms also aim to deliver that level of service efficiently and at scale.

The U.S. economy sent conflicting signals last week as a sharp deceleration in growth collided with unexpectedly stubborn inflation.

Many software stocks have been under pressure in recent months, as investors have started to perceive them as vulnerable to emerging artificial intelligence technology. As highlighted in the “6-Month Price History of the S&P Software and Service Index” chart, software stocks have declined roughly 27% from their September 2025 high.

In a 6-3 decision, the highest court in the U.S. ruled that President Trump lacks the legal authority to impose sweeping tariffs. But the administration has a Plan B in place.

In a 6-3 decision on Friday, the U.S. Supreme Court struck down most of the tariffs implemented by the administration last year. Markets initially showed little reaction to the announcement, with U.S. equities rising by 0.3% while yields on the 10-year Treasury inched up by 2 basis points.

It’s been a busy start to the midterm election year in Washington, marked by a second government shutdown, rising geopolitical tensions - including Iran and Venezuela – and continued uncertainty around tariffs.

Today, the Supreme Court stripped away the Trump Administration's power to impose sweeping tariffs through emergency authority—but the battle over US trade policy is far from over.

With another year of market ebullience behind us, January seems a good time to take stock and share our thoughts on the portfolio for the years ahead.

U.S. equities had another strong year in 2025. Returns were impressive, headlines were dominated by large-cap growth, and investor confidence remained high. Yet a quieter and more important story unfolded beneath the surface. Non-U.S. equities meaningfully outpaced their U.S. counterparts.

Roundhill Financial, GraniteShares, and Bitwise have filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission for prediction market ETFs. These funds would let investors bet directly on election outcomes. That would be a departure from traditional political theme funds that hold baskets of stocks expected to benefit from certain party victories.

Income ETFs have become a key part of the ETF landscape in recent years. With their ability to use tools like call options and FLEX options, as well as dividend-focused stocks, income ETFs can help investors meet their goals.

Municipal bonds have posted strong performance so far this year, despite a news cycle that has many investors questioning the path forward.

It’s a short week for traders and portfolio managers, but a long one for those dissecting macro data points. FOMC Minutes hits before a slew of mid-tier economic updates on Thursday. Friday morning could be the big reveal, with growth and inflation numbers followed by bellwether business and consumer surveys.

There are two sides to the current stock market. One side, ignorance avoidance, requires us to know where the money is. The other side, stock selection, is to know where the money is going.

The rising dispersion in returns and relatively low correlation among S&P 500 stocks has become increasingly apparent on the CBOE S&P 500 Dispersion Index and the CBOE Three-Month Implied Correlation Index.

Emerging-market (EM) corporates have a track record of resilience across market cycles. For over a decade, EM corporate bonds have allowed for participation in rising markets, while exposing investors to less downside during market downdrafts.

Investors have long known balance is a key aspect of portfolio design. It presents a chance to achieve long-term growth and protect hard-earned assets at the same time.

Not long ago, CLO ETFs were niche vehicles only talked about at credit conferences and in sophisticated bond manager circles. But fast forward to 2026, and they’ve entered the mainstream – drawing meaningful interest from both institutions and retail investors.

To love a bubble but hate a crash is to misunderstand the market. A bubble is a crash on its way to becoming. A crash is a bull market on its way to becoming. All we can do is to accept, and as difficult as it may be – embrace – whatever form we have in the present moment, so we can do our best with each of them.

GMO has posted a new 7-Year asset class forecast as of January 31, 2026.

AI has evolved from concentrated innovation to increased adoption across industries, which has led to a considerable (and somewhat swift) shift in stock market leadership.

Raymond James Chief Economist Eugenio J. Alemán discusses current economic conditions.

All three major stock indices finished in the red last week as AI disruption fears continued to grow. The S&P 500, an index of large US companies, returned -1.3 percent for the week, making the index flat year to date.

Royce Investment Partners: Co-CIO Francis Gannon looks at how low interest rates, tax policy, reshoring, technology adoption, and deregulation can fuel US small-cap earnings growth.

This week’s economic releases have once again underscored the policy dynamics we outlined in our January outlook. President Trump faces a high-stakes midterm election in November, and the incentives are clear: deliver visible growth, moderating inflation, and lower borrowing costs to strengthen the administration’s hand with voters.

With growth in both economies underpinned by trade, neither side has much appetite for a large‑scale economic confrontation. That reality should push both capitals toward calibrated responses rather than actions that sharply raise the costs of retaliation.

If you’re grading the economy based on real GDP, it looks pretty good; if grading based on jobs, not so much.

Thematic ETFs have maintained their impressive momentum in early 2026, building on a resurgent 2025. After gathering $23 billion last year, the category added another $4 billion in January alone.

Emerging market ETFs are back in focus. Two of the ten largest U.S.-listed ETF inflow winners year-to-date are broad EM funds. As expected, low-cost passive strategies continue to dominate flows, although they don’t always lead on returns.

The article from the Wall Street Journal titled “Why My Generation Is Turning to Financial Nihilism” by Kyla Scanlon argues that Gen Z is embracing high-risk financial behavior out of despair and detachment, but the data shows something very different. 

Markets move through phases of resilience, shifting leadership and renewed opportunity. We’ve seen this play out in recent months as performance has broadened beyond mega‑cap tech into areas that had long been overlooked.

Four months ago, digital assets underwent what I believe was the most consequential liquidation event in their history. On October 10, 2025, over $19 billion in leveraged positions were wiped out within hours. Bitcoin plummeted from roughly $122,000 to $105,000. More than 1.6 million trader accounts were liquidated.

For families navigating public benefits, long-term care planning, and lifetime financial sustainability, this change represents both an opportunity and a planning strategy worth considering. While ABLE accounts can be powerful tools, they are most effective when coordinated thoughtfully with benefits, trusts, and broader financial strategies.

Browsing real-estate listings is a popular hobby. Home data portals provide hours of free entertainment. Some listings feature bizarre or ostentatious decoration; some are time capsules, preserving a bygone era. Most entries share one shocking feature: the price.

When uncertainty rises, volatility usually follows as the market has a tendency of pricing in worst-case scenarios quickly. AI’s evolution has accelerated rapidly, shifting from novelty use cases to broad, productivity‑enhancing applications across industries.

Last week delivered exactly what the market needed on the economic data front: confirmation that inflation continues to cool while the labor market remains firmly intact. The CPI came in softer than expected, finally reflecting the long-awaited deceleration in rental costs.